Cocoa

Short Squeeze

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-04-14

← Back to Dashboard

Price

3186.00

-181.00 (-5.4%)

52-wk Range

2798.00 — 10898.00

Managed Money Net

-14,015

WoW: -1,399 (-11.1%)

Producer Net

-20,835

WoW: -5,061 (-32.1%)

Swap Dealer Net

+42,450

WoW: +4,477 (+11.8%)

CIT Net

+41,577

WoW: +2,571 (+6.6%)

52-wk Percentile

1.9%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

1.0%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-1.87

Crowd Risk

Short Squeeze

Seasonal Ret

+2.11%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

71.4%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Strong

Swap Net: LongNeutralMM Long Concentration: 40.4%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week lows (7%) and managed money is heavily short (1th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bearish. Contrarian bounce potential increases at these extremes.

Report Date Price

3367.00

+205.00 (+6.48%) WoW

52-Week Range

2798.00

10898.00

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

✅ Strong

Avg Return

+2.11%

Win Rate

71.4%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 50+2.17% (60%)

Week 16+2.11% (71%)

Week 23+2.06% (70%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 40-3.17% (35%)

Week 18-2.56% (35%)

Week 29-2.53% (40%)

West African main crop (Oct–Mar) and mid-crop (May–Aug) define supply cycles. Harmattan dry winds (Dec–Feb) can damage crops and push prices higher.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year low (1th percentile — bullish contrarian) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

4.99+0.00 (+0.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.60+0.01 (+0.2%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

14.3%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

28.8%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

60.0%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:MediumSpread percentile: 56.2%WoW: -4,957 (-15.0%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: -1.01

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

657

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

889

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

0.74

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

58.1%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Partial

Raw Z-Score

-1.87

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

1.0%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

13.3%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

95.2%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	-14,015	-20,835	+42,450	+41,577	196,601	1.9%	1.0%	-1.87	-1,399 (-11.1%)
2026-04-07	-12,616	-15,774	+37,973	+39,006	204,934	3.8%	1.9%	-1.84	-2,484 (-24.5%)
2026-03-31	-10,132	-18,299	+37,665	+38,465	203,517	13.5%	6.7%	-1.73	-1,018 (-11.2%)
2026-03-24	-9,114	-18,129	+37,945	+39,137	194,510	15.4%	7.6%	-1.70	-2,010 (-28.3%)
2026-03-17	-7,104	-21,552	+39,043	+40,320	189,306	23.1%	11.4%	-1.61	+622 (+8.1%)
2026-03-10	-7,726	-19,081	+38,127	+39,615	192,004	19.2%	9.5%	-1.68	-3,639 (-89.0%)
2026-03-03	-4,087	-18,738	+35,218	+37,733	191,812	25.0%	12.4%	-1.48	+2,829 (+40.9%)
2026-02-24	-6,916	-19,711	+31,818	+35,979	173,446	21.2%	10.5%	-1.68	+4,958 (+41.8%)
2026-02-17	-11,874	-12,301	+29,460	+36,059	154,642	3.8%	1.9%	-2.01	-380 (-3.3%)
2026-02-10	-11,494	-15,352	+32,945	+37,114	162,798	3.8%	1.9%	-1.98	-1,164 (-11.3%)
2026-02-03	-10,330	-15,568	+29,529	+38,053	160,254	7.7%	3.8%	-1.89	-827 (-8.7%)
2026-01-27	-9,503	-13,225	+29,518	+34,581	149,397	7.7%	3.8%	-1.82	+1,826 (+16.1%)
2026-01-20	-11,329	-11,710	+30,432	+32,968	145,503	3.8%	1.9%	-1.92	-4,222 (-59.4%)
2026-01-13	-7,107	-9,782	+21,877	+27,652	138,452	9.6%	4.8%	-1.70	-7,248 (-5140.4%)
2026-01-06	+141	-10,170	+7,552	+13,241	127,271	17.3%	8.6%	-1.32	+1,857 (+108.2%)
2025-12-30	-1,716	-9,027	+6,811	+12,358	124,018	13.5%	6.7%	-1.43	+1,656 (+49.1%)
2025-12-23	-3,372	-6,767	+6,597	+10,313	123,937	11.5%	5.7%	-1.52	+1,061 (+23.9%)
2025-12-16	-4,433	-6,188	+7,012	+11,231	119,328	9.6%	4.8%	-1.59	+4,065 (+47.8%)
2025-12-09	-8,498	-4,396	+9,443	+10,740	123,407	7.7%	3.8%	-1.81	+4,205 (+33.1%)
2025-12-02	-12,703	-540	+9,268	+10,174	119,508	1.9%	1.0%	-2.04	-1,615 (-14.6%)
2025-11-25	-11,088	-1,904	+9,569	+10,638	119,337	1.9%	1.0%	-1.99	-2,521 (-29.4%)
2025-11-18	-8,567	-4,433	+9,968	+12,201	115,855	1.9%	1.0%	-1.89	-12,566 (-314.2%)
2025-11-04	+3,999	-18,535	+10,532	+15,914	122,872	7.7%	3.8%	-1.31	+2,018 (+101.9%)
2025-10-28	+1,981	-20,640	+12,659	+17,049	121,995	5.8%	2.9%	-1.42	+2,899 (+315.8%)
2025-10-21	-918	-16,747	+11,176	+16,656	122,332	1.9%	1.0%	-1.59	-1,527 (-250.7%)
2025-10-14	+609	-16,360	+11,243	+16,049	120,419	1.9%	1.0%	-1.55	-5,121 (-89.4%)
2025-10-07	+5,730	-20,419	+11,311	+16,394	120,643	1.9%	1.0%	-1.33	-892 (-13.5%)
2025-09-30	+6,622	-21,418	+12,227	+14,670	113,029	1.9%	1.0%	-1.32	-230 (-3.4%)
2025-09-23	+6,852	-23,290	+13,280	+15,020	103,388	1.9%	1.0%	-1.33	-1,496 (-17.9%)
2025-09-16	+8,348	-23,812	+12,522	+17,615	96,954	1.9%	1.0%	-1.27	-262 (-3.0%)
2025-09-09	+8,610	-21,579	+11,026	+17,610	93,806	1.9%	1.0%	-1.28	-1,093 (-11.3%)
2025-09-02	+9,703	-18,888	+8,340	+17,255	90,201	3.8%	1.9%	-1.25	-1,050 (-9.8%)
2025-08-26	+10,753	-19,752	+7,959	+17,784	89,678	3.8%	1.9%	-1.22	-2,796 (-20.6%)
2025-08-19	+13,549	-22,824	+6,563	+17,699	92,010	13.5%	6.7%	-1.11	-747 (-5.2%)
2025-08-12	+14,296	-23,603	+4,818	+16,859	97,776	15.4%	7.6%	-1.10	+3,159 (+28.4%)
2025-08-05	+11,137	-22,140	+8,810	+17,337	95,061	5.8%	2.9%	-1.26	+339 (+3.1%)
2025-07-29	+10,798	-22,085	+9,131	+17,932	93,823	3.8%	1.9%	-1.30	+1,745 (+19.3%)
2025-07-22	+9,053	-18,402	+6,130	+15,182	93,203	1.9%	1.0%	-1.40	-2,804 (-23.6%)
2025-07-15	+11,857	-15,182	-839	+10,455	95,996	1.9%	1.0%	-1.30	-1,374 (-10.4%)
2025-07-08	+13,231	-15,863	-678	+11,135	92,353	3.8%	1.9%	-1.26	-2,011 (-13.2%)
2025-07-01	+15,242	-16,406	-1,095	+11,985	88,382	11.5%	5.7%	-1.19	+621 (+4.2%)
2025-06-24	+14,621	-16,564	-766	+11,254	88,225	5.8%	2.9%	-1.24	-2,850 (-16.3%)
2025-06-17	+17,471	-19,376	-3,234	+10,043	89,437	25.0%	12.4%	-1.14	+1,063 (+6.5%)
2025-06-10	+16,408	-23,831	-1,597	+10,418	100,052	19.2%	9.5%	-1.21	+234 (+1.4%)
2025-06-03	+16,174	-22,583	-3,019	+8,974	100,231	15.4%	7.6%	-1.24	-2,923 (-15.3%)
2025-05-27	+19,097	-22,890	-3,181	+8,118	101,488	25.0%	13.3%	-1.13	-2,972 (-13.5%)
2025-05-20	+22,069	-25,760	-3,115	+8,319	104,424	26.9%	18.1%	-1.01	+3,203 (+17.0%)
2025-05-13	+18,866	-23,931	-3,091	+8,373	96,891	23.1%	12.4%	-1.18	+4,056 (+27.4%)
2025-05-06	+14,810	-19,093	-2,081	+8,494	90,835	7.7%	3.8%	-1.39	-453 (-3.0%)
2025-04-29	+15,263	-19,976	-1,732	+7,856	89,727	7.7%	3.8%	-1.40	+1,330 (+9.5%)
2025-04-22	+13,933	-17,528	-1,442	+6,835	86,919	3.8%	1.9%	-1.49	+1,314 (+10.4%)
2025-04-15	+12,619	-17,462	-635	+6,022	90,046	1.9%	1.0%	-1.59	-4,547 (-26.5%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersProducer / MerchantManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportable