Bullion

Cocoa

Neutral

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-08-25

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Cocoa futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is within its recent range (17th percentile).

Crowd risk

Neutral

Gross long exposure is not at the dashboard's concentration threshold.

Price context

Price sits 73% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Strong seasonal bias for week 35. Macro is mixed.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price
6636.00

As of 2026-08-28 · +481.00 (+7.8%)

52-wk Range
73%

2798.00 — 7382.00

Managed Money Net
-10,458

WoW: -1,087 (-11.6%)

Producer Net
-23,438

WoW: -67 (-0.3%)

Swap Dealer Net
+27,017

WoW: +1,186 (+4.6%)

CIT Net
+28,962

WoW: -374 (-1.3%)

52-wk Percentile
34.6%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile
17.1%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score
-1.07
Crowd Risk
Neutral
Seasonal Ret
+1.16%

Week 35 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%
66.7%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias
Strong
Swap Net: LongNeutralMM Long Concentration: 40.4%

Price Context

Price is mid-range (73%) with neutral positioning (17th percentile) — no strong signal from the price-COT relationship.

COT Baseline Price

6155.00

As of 2026-08-24

+165.00 (+2.75%) WoW

52-Week Range

2798.00
7382.00

73%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (35)
Strong
Avg Return
+1.16%
Win Rate
66.7%(21y)
3 Strongest Weeks
Week 19+2.86% (62%)
Week 28+2.30% (76%)
Week 50+2.17% (60%)
3 Weakest Weeks
Week 29-3.24% (38%)
Week 40-3.17% (35%)
Week 18-2.26% (38%)
West African main crop (Oct–Mar) and mid-crop (May–Aug) define supply cycles. Harmattan dry winds (Dec–Feb) can damage crops and push prices higher.

Macro Context

Mixed
COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is low (17th percentile — leaning bullish) while macro is Mixed.
DXY (USD Index)
99.68+0.52 (+0.5%)

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL
5.21+0.06 (+1.1%)

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio
2.40-0.06 (-2.5%)

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX
14.43-0.08 (-0.6%)

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

DateMM NetProducer NetSwap NetCIT NetOpen Interest52-wk %ile105-wk %ileZ-ScoreWoW Chg
2026-08-25-10,458-23,438+27,017+28,962172,84634.6%17.1%-1.07-1,087 (-11.6%)
2026-08-18-9,371-23,371+25,831+29,336175,36142.3%21.0%-1.03-2,704 (-40.6%)
2026-08-11-6,667-20,476+22,810+28,939190,89161.5%30.5%-0.91-1,997 (-42.8%)
2026-08-04-4,670-20,908+22,497+28,634203,39863.5%31.4%-0.82+4,103 (+46.8%)
2026-07-28-8,773-18,433+22,894+29,648201,22344.2%21.9%-1.05-1,797 (-25.8%)
2026-07-21-6,976-21,175+23,332+30,715201,55255.8%27.6%-0.98+138 (+1.9%)
2026-07-14-7,114-21,487+30,657+33,741203,74850.0%24.8%-1.00-1,250 (-21.3%)
2026-07-07-5,864-23,525+34,897+36,563197,97155.8%27.6%-0.95+4,661 (+44.3%)
2026-06-30-10,525-21,812+34,999+37,192186,48132.7%16.2%-1.22+7,574 (+41.8%)
2026-06-23-18,099-21,947+40,558+36,656182,5005.8%2.9%-1.66+2,457 (+12.0%)
2026-06-16-20,556-20,067+40,053+36,096193,0183.8%1.9%-1.83+2,528 (+11.0%)
2026-06-09-23,084-20,677+45,103+38,290203,2461.9%1.0%-2.02-6,480 (-39.0%)
2026-06-02-16,604-25,760+42,987+39,694205,0763.8%1.9%-1.72-2,788 (-20.2%)
2026-05-26-13,816-26,937+42,228+40,988202,9395.8%2.9%-1.61-1,354 (-10.9%)
2026-05-19-12,462-27,443+42,147+40,001193,57811.5%5.7%-1.57-2,550 (-25.7%)
2026-05-12-9,912-26,069+37,965+38,419194,36925.0%12.4%-1.45+1,680 (+14.5%)
2026-05-05-11,592-23,393+41,618+38,359200,36013.5%6.7%-1.58+5,514 (+32.2%)
2026-04-28-17,106-18,699+40,963+38,629197,1141.9%1.0%-1.95-3,745 (-28.0%)
2026-04-21-13,361-21,837+39,657+38,701194,5193.8%1.9%-1.78+654 (+4.7%)
2026-04-14-14,015-20,835+42,450+41,577196,6011.9%1.0%-1.87-1,399 (-11.1%)
2026-04-07-12,616-15,774+37,973+39,006204,9343.8%1.9%-1.84-2,484 (-24.5%)
2026-03-31-10,132-18,299+37,665+38,465203,51713.5%6.7%-1.73-1,018 (-11.2%)
2026-03-24-9,114-18,129+37,945+39,137194,51015.4%7.6%-1.70-2,010 (-28.3%)
2026-03-17-7,104-21,552+39,043+40,320189,30623.1%11.4%-1.61+622 (+8.1%)
2026-03-10-7,726-19,081+38,127+39,615192,00419.2%9.5%-1.68-3,639 (-89.0%)
2026-03-03-4,087-18,738+35,218+37,733191,81225.0%12.4%-1.48+2,829 (+40.9%)
2026-02-24-6,916-19,711+31,818+35,979173,44621.2%10.5%-1.68+4,958 (+41.8%)
2026-02-17-11,874-12,301+29,460+36,059154,6423.8%1.9%-2.01-380 (-3.3%)
2026-02-10-11,494-15,352+32,945+37,114162,7983.8%1.9%-1.98-1,164 (-11.3%)
2026-02-03-10,330-15,568+29,529+38,053160,2547.7%3.8%-1.89-827 (-8.7%)
2026-01-27-9,503-13,225+29,518+34,581149,3977.7%3.8%-1.82+1,826 (+16.1%)
2026-01-20-11,329-11,710+30,432+32,968145,5033.8%1.9%-1.92-4,222 (-59.4%)
2026-01-13-7,107-9,782+21,877+27,652138,4529.6%4.8%-1.70-7,248 (-5140.4%)
2026-01-06+141-10,170+7,552+13,241127,27117.3%8.6%-1.32+1,857 (+108.2%)
2025-12-30-1,716-9,027+6,811+12,358124,01813.5%6.7%-1.43+1,656 (+49.1%)
2025-12-23-3,372-6,767+6,597+10,313123,93711.5%5.7%-1.52+1,061 (+23.9%)
2025-12-16-4,433-6,188+7,012+11,231119,3289.6%4.8%-1.59+4,065 (+47.8%)
2025-12-09-8,498-4,396+9,443+10,740123,4077.7%3.8%-1.81+4,205 (+33.1%)
2025-12-02-12,703-540+9,268+10,174119,5081.9%1.0%-2.04-1,615 (-14.6%)
2025-11-25-11,088-1,904+9,569+10,638119,3371.9%1.0%-1.99-2,521 (-29.4%)
2025-11-18-8,567-4,433+9,968+12,201115,8551.9%1.0%-1.89-12,566 (-314.2%)
2025-11-04+3,999-18,535+10,532+15,914122,8727.7%3.8%-1.31+2,018 (+101.9%)
2025-10-28+1,981-20,640+12,659+17,049121,9955.8%2.9%-1.42+2,899 (+315.8%)
2025-10-21-918-16,747+11,176+16,656122,3321.9%1.0%-1.59-1,527 (-250.7%)
2025-10-14+609-16,360+11,243+16,049120,4191.9%1.0%-1.55-5,121 (-89.4%)
2025-10-07+5,730-20,419+11,311+16,394120,6431.9%1.0%-1.33-892 (-13.5%)
2025-09-30+6,622-21,418+12,227+14,670113,0291.9%1.0%-1.32-230 (-3.4%)
2025-09-23+6,852-23,290+13,280+15,020103,3881.9%1.0%-1.33-1,496 (-17.9%)
2025-09-16+8,348-23,812+12,522+17,61596,9541.9%1.0%-1.27-262 (-3.0%)
2025-09-09+8,610-21,579+11,026+17,61093,8061.9%1.0%-1.28-1,093 (-11.3%)
2025-09-02+9,703-18,888+8,340+17,25590,2013.8%1.9%-1.25-1,050 (-9.8%)
2025-08-26+10,753-19,752+7,959+17,78489,6783.8%1.9%-1.22-2,796 (-20.6%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersProducer / MerchantManaged MoneyNonreportableOther Reportables