Coffee

Short Squeeze

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-10-13

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Coffee futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is low versus the last two years (3th percentile).

Crowd risk

Short Squeeze

Gross long exposure is not at the dashboard's concentration threshold.

Price context

Price sits 29% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Weak seasonal bias for week 43. Macro is supportive.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

311.40

As of 2026-10-22 · +16.60 (+5.6%)

52-wk Range

29%

247.15 — 413.00

Managed Money Net

+15,270

WoW: -3,766 (-19.8%)

Producer Net

-19,064

WoW: +1,311 (+6.4%)

Swap Dealer Net

+4,812

WoW: +1,949 (+68.1%)

CIT Net

+34,518

WoW: +2 (+0.0%)

52-wk Percentile

5.8%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

2.9%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-1.55

Crowd Risk

Short Squeeze

Seasonal Ret

-1.85%

Week 43 · 20y avg

Seasonal Win%

35.0%

20 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Weak

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 63.9%

Price Context

Price is in the lower half of its range (29%) with moderate-to-bearish positioning (3th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

COT Baseline Price

294.80

As of 2026-10-12

+5.75 (+1.99%) WoW

52-Week Range

247.15

413.00

29%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (43)

⚠️ Weak

Avg Return

-1.85%

Win Rate

35.0%(20y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 26+2.21% (67%)

Week 34+2.01% (62%)

Week 29+1.76% (67%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 43-1.85% (35%)

Week 49-1.81% (30%)

Week 38-1.64% (33%)

Brazilian frost risk (Jun–Aug) is the single largest seasonal catalyst. The main harvest (May–Sep) tends to weigh on prices once frost fears dissipate.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year low (3th percentile — bullish contrarian) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

101.61-0.39 (-0.4%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

5.04-0.05 (-1.1%)↓

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.72+0.08 (+2.8%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

19.06+2.60 (+15.8%)↑

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-10-13	+15,270	-19,064	+4,812	+34,518	163,626	5.8%	2.9%	-1.55	-3,766 (-19.8%)
2026-10-06	+19,036	-20,375	+2,863	+34,516	162,806	17.3%	8.6%	-1.32	+2,830 (+17.5%)
2026-09-29	+16,206	-16,027	+1,495	+33,943	154,908	7.7%	3.8%	-1.54	+400 (+2.5%)
2026-09-22	+15,806	-12,534	+1,159	+33,634	153,035	5.8%	2.9%	-1.59	-4,855 (-23.5%)
2026-09-15	+20,661	-20,446	+3,568	+35,137	150,458	17.3%	8.6%	-1.29	-1,448 (-6.5%)
2026-09-08	+22,109	-22,668	+3,028	+35,495	152,136	19.2%	9.5%	-1.22	-4,620 (-17.3%)
2026-09-01	+26,729	-28,761	+2,466	+35,654	155,275	26.9%	21.0%	-0.92	-4,459 (-14.3%)
2026-08-25	+31,188	-35,429	+1,720	+35,003	160,035	44.2%	31.4%	-0.63	-424 (-1.3%)
2026-08-18	+31,612	-35,046	+2,242	+34,114	163,299	50.0%	33.3%	-0.61	-821 (-2.5%)
2026-08-11	+32,433	-31,230	+1,803	+33,836	173,839	51.9%	34.3%	-0.57	+992 (+3.2%)
2026-08-04	+31,441	-27,973	+960	+33,748	168,814	51.0%	31.9%	-0.65	-2,058 (-6.1%)
2026-07-28	+33,499	-30,135	+1,320	+34,869	164,447	61.5%	37.1%	-0.52	+280 (+0.8%)
2026-07-21	+33,219	-30,410	+1,321	+34,432	163,057	59.6%	35.2%	-0.55	+385 (+1.2%)
2026-07-14	+32,834	-30,724	+1,274	+33,538	166,843	59.6%	34.3%	-0.59	-1,620 (-4.7%)
2026-07-07	+34,454	-29,294	+1,726	+33,791	174,440	65.4%	37.1%	-0.50	+7,077 (+25.9%)
2026-06-30	+27,377	-24,403	+3,627	+29,251	183,728	44.2%	22.9%	-0.98	+6,459 (+30.9%)
2026-06-23	+20,918	-19,885	+4,887	+27,282	186,617	17.3%	8.6%	-1.42	+6,911 (+49.3%)
2026-06-16	+14,007	-15,214	+6,725	+26,602	193,019	3.8%	1.9%	-1.91	+2,144 (+18.1%)
2026-06-09	+11,863	-9,308	+3,523	+23,874	213,519	1.9%	1.0%	-2.10	-7,761 (-39.5%)
2026-06-02	+19,624	-16,265	+2,760	+24,596	202,855	11.5%	5.7%	-1.64	-3,349 (-14.6%)
2026-05-26	+22,973	-21,414	+4,648	+26,194	193,648	11.5%	5.7%	-1.45	-1,613 (-6.6%)
2026-05-19	+24,586	-20,831	+5,450	+26,158	189,817	17.3%	8.6%	-1.37	-5,784 (-19.0%)
2026-05-12	+30,370	-25,629	+4,979	+28,129	182,249	42.3%	21.0%	-1.00	-4,473 (-12.8%)
2026-05-05	+34,843	-32,058	+4,002	+29,243	176,045	59.6%	29.5%	-0.71	+2,111 (+6.4%)
2026-04-28	+32,732	-30,385	+5,357	+28,741	171,239	51.9%	25.7%	-0.87	+5,652 (+20.9%)
2026-04-21	+27,080	-25,320	+6,734	+26,152	162,870	30.8%	15.2%	-1.26	-2,490 (-8.4%)
2026-04-14	+29,570	-28,401	+6,466	+26,662	168,563	34.6%	17.1%	-1.12	+1,983 (+7.2%)
2026-04-07	+27,587	-26,032	+4,345	+25,889	176,140	32.7%	16.2%	-1.28	-3,124 (-10.2%)
2026-03-31	+30,711	-29,850	+3,916	+25,655	175,500	38.5%	19.0%	-1.09	+714 (+2.4%)
2026-03-24	+29,997	-30,429	+4,120	+27,124	174,861	34.6%	17.1%	-1.15	+5,745 (+23.7%)
2026-03-17	+24,252	-23,686	+4,622	+26,468	173,683	11.5%	5.7%	-1.57	+5,589 (+29.9%)
2026-03-10	+18,663	-20,370	+5,136	+26,664	167,071	7.7%	3.8%	-1.99	+2,198 (+13.3%)
2026-03-03	+16,465	-15,903	+5,063	+27,434	169,433	1.9%	1.0%	-2.20	-391 (-2.3%)
2026-02-24	+16,856	-16,360	+3,386	+26,661	164,239	1.9%	1.0%	-2.25	-1,216 (-6.7%)
2026-02-17	+18,072	-15,576	+2,960	+28,815	156,645	1.9%	1.0%	-2.24	-1,005 (-5.3%)
2026-02-10	+19,077	-13,922	-437	+30,647	175,044	1.9%	1.0%	-2.24	-6,597 (-25.7%)
2026-02-03	+25,674	-18,874	+37	+33,108	179,573	7.7%	3.8%	-1.81	-10,273 (-28.6%)
2026-01-27	+35,947	-33,035	-1,047	+35,249	174,890	42.3%	21.0%	-1.05	+2,483 (+7.4%)
2026-01-20	+33,464	-28,448	-1,703	+35,548	170,437	28.8%	14.3%	-1.26	-1,781 (-5.1%)
2026-01-13	+35,245	-32,583	-1,544	+35,938	170,695	34.6%	17.1%	-1.13	+879 (+2.6%)
2026-01-06	+34,366	-29,396	-2,227	+34,888	170,823	30.8%	15.2%	-1.22	+3,963 (+13.0%)
2025-12-30	+30,403	-23,373	-2,436	+34,186	164,520	21.2%	10.5%	-1.55	+806 (+2.7%)
2025-12-23	+29,597	-21,812	-3,189	+34,109	161,478	19.2%	9.5%	-1.65	-5,716 (-16.2%)
2025-12-16	+35,313	-25,416	-5,257	+35,619	160,631	28.8%	15.2%	-1.19	-3,291 (-8.5%)
2025-12-09	+38,604	-30,743	-5,513	+35,605	163,907	38.5%	21.0%	-0.92	+177 (+0.5%)
2025-12-02	+38,427	-31,187	-5,955	+35,614	158,348	34.6%	20.0%	-0.92	-67 (-0.2%)
2025-11-25	+38,494	-31,011	-6,583	+36,264	159,439	34.6%	21.0%	-0.89	-2,674 (-6.5%)
2025-11-18	+41,168	-35,453	-4,850	+37,174	155,331	44.2%	26.7%	-0.66	-7,590 (-15.6%)
2025-11-04	+48,758	-35,873	-10,828	+39,722	176,007	55.8%	41.0%	-0.04	-962 (-1.9%)
2025-10-28	+49,720	-34,529	-11,498	+39,823	173,876	55.8%	44.8%	0.06	-431 (-0.9%)
2025-10-21	+50,151	-36,183	-11,167	+39,698	176,952	55.8%	45.7%	0.12	+1,962 (+4.1%)
2025-10-14	+48,189	-34,290	-10,979	+38,443	175,792	53.8%	42.9%	0.02	+4,805 (+11.1%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersOther ReportablesNonreportable