Coffee

Neutral

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

289.30

-7.15 (-2.4%)

52-wk Range

14%

276.75 — 413.00

Managed Money Net

+29,570

WoW: +1,983 (+7.2%)

Producer Net

-28,401

WoW: -2,369 (-9.1%)

Swap Dealer Net

+6,466

WoW: +2,121 (+48.8%)

CIT Net

+26,662

WoW: +773 (+3.0%)

52-wk Percentile

34.6%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

17.1%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-1.12

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

+0.98%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

57.1%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 76.9%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week lows (14%) and managed money is heavily short (17th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bearish. Contrarian bounce potential increases at these extremes.

Report Date Price

296.45

+2.75 (+0.94%) WoW

52-Week Range

276.75

413.00

14%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.98%

Win Rate

57.1%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 29+2.35% (70%)

Week 53+1.76% (67%)

Week 26+1.68% (65%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 43-1.85% (35%)

Week 49-1.81% (30%)

Week 24-1.50% (15%)

Brazilian frost risk (Jun–Aug) is the single largest seasonal catalyst. The main harvest (May–Sep) tends to weigh on prices once frost fears dissipate.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is low (17th percentile — leaning bullish) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

4.99+0.00 (+0.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.60+0.01 (+0.2%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

15.5%

High

Producer 52-wk %ile

51.9%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

75.2%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:NoiseSpread percentile: 93.3%WoW: -2,505 (-8.8%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Longs Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: -2.74Retail Extreme Short — contrarian bullish

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

596

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

397

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

1.50

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

39.0%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

-1.12

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

17.1%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

20.0%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

87.6%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+29,570	-28,401	+6,466	+26,662	168,563	34.6%	17.1%	-1.12	+1,983 (+7.2%)
2026-04-07	+27,587	-26,032	+4,345	+25,889	176,140	32.7%	16.2%	-1.28	-3,124 (-10.2%)
2026-03-31	+30,711	-29,850	+3,916	+25,655	175,500	38.5%	19.0%	-1.09	+714 (+2.4%)
2026-03-24	+29,997	-30,429	+4,120	+27,124	174,861	34.6%	17.1%	-1.15	+5,745 (+23.7%)
2026-03-17	+24,252	-23,686	+4,622	+26,468	173,683	11.5%	5.7%	-1.57	+5,589 (+29.9%)
2026-03-10	+18,663	-20,370	+5,136	+26,664	167,071	7.7%	3.8%	-1.99	+2,198 (+13.3%)
2026-03-03	+16,465	-15,903	+5,063	+27,434	169,433	1.9%	1.0%	-2.20	-391 (-2.3%)
2026-02-24	+16,856	-16,360	+3,386	+26,661	164,239	1.9%	1.0%	-2.25	-1,216 (-6.7%)
2026-02-17	+18,072	-15,576	+2,960	+28,815	156,645	1.9%	1.0%	-2.24	-1,005 (-5.3%)
2026-02-10	+19,077	-13,922	-437	+30,647	175,044	1.9%	1.0%	-2.24	-6,597 (-25.7%)
2026-02-03	+25,674	-18,874	+37	+33,108	179,573	7.7%	3.8%	-1.81	-10,273 (-28.6%)
2026-01-27	+35,947	-33,035	-1,047	+35,249	174,890	42.3%	21.0%	-1.05	+2,483 (+7.4%)
2026-01-20	+33,464	-28,448	-1,703	+35,548	170,437	28.8%	14.3%	-1.26	-1,781 (-5.1%)
2026-01-13	+35,245	-32,583	-1,544	+35,938	170,695	34.6%	17.1%	-1.13	+879 (+2.6%)
2026-01-06	+34,366	-29,396	-2,227	+34,888	170,823	30.8%	15.2%	-1.22	+3,963 (+13.0%)
2025-12-30	+30,403	-23,373	-2,436	+34,186	164,520	21.2%	10.5%	-1.55	+806 (+2.7%)
2025-12-23	+29,597	-21,812	-3,189	+34,109	161,478	19.2%	9.5%	-1.65	-5,716 (-16.2%)
2025-12-16	+35,313	-25,416	-5,257	+35,619	160,631	28.8%	15.2%	-1.19	-3,291 (-8.5%)
2025-12-09	+38,604	-30,743	-5,513	+35,605	163,907	38.5%	21.0%	-0.92	+177 (+0.5%)
2025-12-02	+38,427	-31,187	-5,955	+35,614	158,348	34.6%	20.0%	-0.92	-67 (-0.2%)
2025-11-25	+38,494	-31,011	-6,583	+36,264	159,439	34.6%	21.0%	-0.89	-2,674 (-6.5%)
2025-11-18	+41,168	-35,453	-4,850	+37,174	155,331	44.2%	26.7%	-0.66	-7,590 (-15.6%)
2025-11-04	+48,758	-35,873	-10,828	+39,722	176,007	55.8%	41.0%	-0.04	-962 (-1.9%)
2025-10-28	+49,720	-34,529	-11,498	+39,823	173,876	55.8%	44.8%	0.06	-431 (-0.9%)
2025-10-21	+50,151	-36,183	-11,167	+39,698	176,952	55.8%	45.7%	0.12	+1,962 (+4.1%)
2025-10-14	+48,189	-34,290	-10,979	+38,443	175,792	53.8%	42.9%	0.02	+4,805 (+11.1%)
2025-10-07	+43,384	-32,194	-9,652	+37,773	168,490	48.1%	33.3%	-0.22	+2,409 (+5.9%)
2025-09-30	+40,975	-31,458	-9,077	+37,895	165,749	40.4%	30.5%	-0.30	+669 (+1.7%)
2025-09-23	+40,306	-30,566	-9,095	+37,536	169,676	38.5%	30.5%	-0.28	-855 (-2.1%)
2025-09-16	+41,161	-35,320	-8,265	+41,712	176,005	38.5%	31.4%	-0.20	+1,382 (+3.5%)
2025-09-09	+39,779	-33,332	-7,561	+40,166	176,855	36.5%	31.4%	-0.22	+4,071 (+11.4%)
2025-09-02	+35,708	-32,332	-5,168	+40,022	170,009	28.8%	27.6%	-0.36	+4,267 (+13.6%)
2025-08-26	+31,441	-30,727	-2,854	+39,654	161,225	21.2%	23.8%	-0.49	+5,432 (+20.9%)
2025-08-19	+26,009	-27,537	-2,819	+37,929	152,281	9.6%	17.1%	-0.66	+1,644 (+6.7%)
2025-08-12	+24,365	-28,542	+1,464	+33,926	146,352	1.9%	13.3%	-0.68	-1,824 (-7.0%)
2025-08-05	+26,189	-22,091	-7,727	+31,569	162,429	7.7%	18.1%	-0.59	-135 (-0.5%)
2025-07-29	+26,324	-22,244	-8,006	+33,062	155,650	7.7%	19.0%	-0.56	-793 (-2.9%)
2025-07-22	+27,117	-23,263	-8,554	+33,260	152,845	9.6%	21.0%	-0.50	+1,153 (+4.4%)
2025-07-15	+25,964	-22,640	-9,331	+33,237	150,606	5.8%	20.0%	-0.52	+1,563 (+6.4%)
2025-07-08	+24,401	-19,636	-10,251	+31,261	150,075	1.9%	18.1%	-0.56	-246 (-1.0%)
2025-07-01	+24,647	-20,183	-10,806	+32,520	148,342	1.9%	19.0%	-0.54	-1,729 (-6.6%)
2025-06-24	+26,376	-22,739	-10,040	+33,641	147,385	1.9%	21.0%	-0.47	-4,463 (-14.5%)
2025-06-17	+30,839	-27,172	-10,562	+34,140	143,735	1.9%	23.8%	-0.32	-2,743 (-8.2%)
2025-06-10	+33,582	-27,411	-12,435	+33,849	158,885	3.8%	25.7%	-0.22	+1,708 (+5.4%)
2025-06-03	+31,874	-19,915	-17,150	+29,934	158,180	1.9%	25.7%	-0.28	-5,080 (-13.7%)
2025-05-27	+36,954	-25,646	-16,768	+33,159	153,055	5.8%	30.5%	-0.10	-2,527 (-6.4%)
2025-05-20	+39,481	-28,479	-17,223	+33,094	150,118	5.8%	31.4%	-0.01	-2,252 (-5.4%)
2025-05-13	+41,733	-30,238	-18,152	+33,677	154,524	5.8%	32.4%	0.07	-2,219 (-5.0%)
2025-05-06	+43,952	-32,603	-19,185	+34,207	154,370	7.7%	35.2%	0.15	-452 (-1.0%)
2025-04-29	+44,404	-33,597	-18,597	+36,227	155,503	7.7%	37.1%	0.17	+7,481 (+20.3%)
2025-04-22	+36,923	-26,132	-17,200	+31,836	146,006	3.8%	34.3%	-0.08	+1,689 (+4.8%)
2025-04-15	+35,234	-25,651	-17,340	+31,918	149,805	1.9%	32.4%	-0.14	-6,841 (-16.3%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Managed MoneyProducer / MerchantOther ReportablesSwap DealersNonreportable