Copper

Liquidation Risk

metals · Last COT: 2026-08-25

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Copper futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is high versus the last two years (98th percentile).

Crowd risk

Liquidation Risk

85.3% of Managed Money contracts are long, which raises exit-risk even if net positioning is not at a high percentile.

Price context

Price sits 95% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Neutral seasonal bias for week 35. Macro is mixed.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

6.66

As of 2026-08-28 · +0.0720 (+1.1%)

52-wk Range

95%

4.48 — 6.69

Managed Money Net

+76,271

WoW: -2,377 (-3.0%)

Producer Net

-100,023

WoW: -3,749 (-3.9%)

Swap Dealer Net

+4,974

WoW: -1,160 (-18.9%)

52-wk Percentile

96.2%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

98.1%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

1.59

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

-0.02%

Week 35 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

61.9%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 85.3%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (95%) and managed money is heavily long (98th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

COT Baseline Price

6.59

As of 2026-08-24

+0.1270 (+1.97%) WoW

52-Week Range

4.48

6.69

95%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (35)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

-0.02%

Win Rate

61.9%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 16+2.14% (67%)

Week 6+1.77% (57%)

Week 2+1.75% (62%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 31-2.00% (29%)

Week 22-1.25% (38%)

Week 45-0.91% (25%)

Chinese construction activity ramps up after Lunar New Year (Feb–Apr), supporting demand. Q3–Q4 tends to see softer demand as construction slows seasonally.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (98th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Mixed.

DXY (USD Index)

99.68+0.52 (+0.5%)↑

A falling dollar makes gold and silver cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting prices. A rising dollar is a headwind for precious metals.

US 10Y Yield

4.72+0.05 (+1.0%)↑

Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals like gold. Falling yields are bullish for precious metals.

13-Week T-Bill

3.73+0.05 (+1.4%)↑

Higher short-term rates signal tighter Fed policy, which historically pressures gold. Lower rates ease monetary conditions and support metals.

VIX

14.43-0.08 (-0.6%)↓

Elevated volatility drives safe-haven demand into gold and silver. Low VIX reflects complacency and reduces the urgency to hold precious metals.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-08-25	+76,271	-100,023	+4,974	283,299	96.2%	98.1%	1.59	-2,377 (-3.0%)
2026-08-18	+78,648	-96,274	+6,134	281,563	98.1%	99.0%	1.74	-379 (-0.5%)
2026-08-11	+79,027	-97,517	+6,271	297,047	100.0%	100.0%	1.79	+3,269 (+4.3%)
2026-08-04	+75,758	-92,844	+6,675	289,395	100.0%	100.0%	1.69	+10,750 (+16.5%)
2026-07-28	+65,008	-85,279	+9,118	274,552	73.1%	86.7%	1.23	-6,507 (-9.1%)
2026-07-21	+71,515	-91,208	+9,096	270,048	90.4%	95.2%	1.56	+11,330 (+18.8%)
2026-07-14	+60,185	-86,384	+12,768	259,873	59.6%	80.0%	1.06	+1,401 (+2.4%)
2026-07-07	+58,784	-90,983	+17,813	250,948	55.8%	78.1%	1.01	-919 (-1.5%)
2026-06-30	+59,703	-89,338	+16,244	254,335	59.6%	80.0%	1.07	-6,844 (-10.3%)
2026-06-23	+66,547	-97,586	+17,108	268,800	78.8%	89.5%	1.41	-2,461 (-3.6%)
2026-06-16	+69,008	-102,264	+17,856	270,752	82.7%	91.4%	1.55	-196 (-0.3%)
2026-06-09	+69,204	-109,260	+25,325	274,331	84.6%	92.4%	1.57	-6,543 (-8.6%)
2026-06-02	+75,747	-114,904	+26,259	276,892	100.0%	100.0%	1.91	+5,247 (+7.4%)
2026-05-26	+70,500	-110,891	+27,179	266,243	90.4%	95.2%	1.68	-3,688 (-5.0%)
2026-05-19	+74,188	-111,707	+26,208	257,964	94.2%	96.2%	1.85	-300 (-0.4%)
2026-05-12	+74,488	-114,732	+27,589	259,808	96.2%	97.1%	1.86	+11,015 (+17.4%)
2026-05-05	+63,473	-101,414	+29,397	232,609	88.5%	90.5%	1.34	+2,536 (+4.2%)
2026-04-28	+60,937	-103,114	+31,085	230,596	78.8%	84.8%	1.22	+1,352 (+2.3%)
2026-04-21	+59,585	-99,828	+30,493	250,504	76.9%	82.9%	1.14	+7,252 (+13.9%)
2026-04-14	+52,333	-94,436	+30,295	245,595	61.5%	72.4%	0.79	+13,940 (+36.3%)
2026-04-07	+38,393	-80,781	+29,166	224,634	42.3%	57.1%	0.11	-779 (-2.0%)
2026-03-31	+39,172	-77,345	+27,536	220,756	44.2%	59.0%	0.16	+3,888 (+11.0%)
2026-03-24	+35,284	-72,073	+25,785	221,772	36.5%	51.4%	-0.02	-11,274 (-24.2%)
2026-03-17	+46,558	-85,233	+25,799	231,319	53.8%	67.6%	0.53	-1,118 (-2.3%)
2026-03-10	+47,676	-86,859	+24,226	235,322	55.8%	68.6%	0.59	-818 (-1.7%)
2026-03-03	+48,494	-91,801	+22,057	244,932	59.6%	70.5%	0.65	-2,533 (-5.0%)
2026-02-24	+51,027	-95,787	+23,439	261,235	61.5%	72.4%	0.78	-2,747 (-5.1%)
2026-02-17	+53,774	-96,867	+22,981	272,967	63.5%	74.3%	0.92	-1,790 (-3.2%)
2026-02-10	+55,564	-80,967	+20,175	270,792	65.4%	77.1%	0.99	-359 (-0.6%)
2026-02-03	+55,923	-82,035	+19,484	278,845	67.3%	78.1%	1.02	-2,095 (-3.6%)
2026-01-27	+58,018	-86,956	+22,144	278,219	75.0%	81.9%	1.13	-4,788 (-7.6%)
2026-01-20	+62,806	-89,963	+20,777	278,431	84.6%	86.7%	1.33	-585 (-0.9%)
2026-01-13	+63,391	-82,723	+13,761	269,813	86.5%	87.6%	1.37	-4,851 (-7.1%)
2026-01-06	+68,242	-85,355	+13,341	267,027	92.3%	94.3%	1.58	-2,777 (-3.9%)
2025-12-30	+71,019	-85,059	+12,351	260,139	96.2%	96.2%	1.74	-4,600 (-6.1%)
2025-12-23	+75,619	-95,818	+15,372	267,343	100.0%	100.0%	1.97	+485 (+0.6%)
2025-12-16	+75,134	-92,012	+13,133	256,887	100.0%	99.0%	2.01	+4,650 (+6.6%)
2025-12-09	+70,484	-90,159	+13,976	250,821	100.0%	98.1%	1.87	+7,025 (+11.1%)
2025-12-02	+63,459	-81,486	+14,970	242,931	98.1%	93.3%	1.62	+5,912 (+10.3%)
2025-11-25	+57,547	-73,192	+19,191	233,461	90.4%	89.5%	1.40	-4,056 (-6.6%)
2025-11-18	+61,603	-80,055	+16,935	251,537	96.2%	92.4%	1.61	-3,899 (-6.0%)
2025-11-10	+65,502	-84,280	+18,455	312,609	100.0%	96.2%	1.81	+4,773 (+7.9%)
2025-11-04	+60,729	-82,568	+13,984	269,926	98.1%	93.3%	1.64	-1,265 (-2.0%)
2025-10-28	+61,994	-81,485	+20,682	272,068	100.0%	94.3%	1.73	+5,318 (+9.4%)
2025-10-21	+56,676	-69,959	+17,826	258,680	98.1%	93.3%	1.53	-1,708 (-2.9%)
2025-10-14	+58,384	-68,913	+15,670	252,089	100.0%	94.3%	1.62	+1,935 (+3.4%)
2025-10-07	+56,449	-69,239	+18,367	250,850	100.0%	94.3%	1.58	+8,024 (+16.6%)
2025-09-30	+48,425	-62,044	+19,494	230,658	100.0%	90.5%	1.25	+5,036 (+11.6%)
2025-09-23	+43,389	-55,108	+16,855	227,318	100.0%	88.6%	1.04	+1,292 (+3.1%)
2025-09-16	+42,097	-55,169	+16,745	221,011	100.0%	88.6%	1.01	+3,722 (+9.7%)
2025-09-09	+38,375	-51,763	+15,748	208,356	94.2%	82.9%	0.86	+2,819 (+7.9%)
2025-09-02	+35,556	-48,071	+14,121	195,673	84.6%	78.1%	0.75	+6,802 (+23.7%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneyNonreportableOther ReportablesSwap Dealers