Copper

Liquidation Risk

metals · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

6.10

+0.0370 (+0.6%)

52-wk Range

100%

4.41 — 6.07

Managed Money Net

+52,333

WoW: +13,940 (+36.3%)

Producer Net

-94,436

WoW: -13,655 (-16.9%)

Swap Dealer Net

+30,295

WoW: +1,129 (+3.9%)

52-wk Percentile

61.5%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

72.4%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

0.79

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+2.14%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

66.7%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Strong

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 80.9%

Price Context

Price is in the upper half of its range (100%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (72th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

Report Date Price

6.07

+0.3185 (+5.54%) WoW

52-Week Range

4.41

6.07

100%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

✅ Strong

Avg Return

+2.14%

Win Rate

66.7%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 16+2.14% (67%)

Week 6+1.77% (57%)

Week 2+1.75% (62%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 31-2.21% (25%)

Week 22-1.43% (35%)

Week 20-0.99% (40%)

Chinese construction activity ramps up after Lunar New Year (Feb–Apr), supporting demand. Q3–Q4 tends to see softer demand as construction slows seasonally.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (72th percentile) while macro is Mixed.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A falling dollar makes gold and silver cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting prices. A rising dollar is a headwind for precious metals.

US 10Y Yield

4.25-0.06 (-1.5%)↓

Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals like gold. Falling yields are bullish for precious metals.

13-Week T-Bill

3.60-0.01 (-0.3%)↓

Higher short-term rates signal tighter Fed policy, which historically pressures gold. Lower rates ease monetary conditions and support metals.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated volatility drives safe-haven demand into gold and silver. Low VIX reflects complacency and reduces the urgency to hold precious metals.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

10.3%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

7.7%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

4.8%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 3.8%WoW: -3,526 (-12.2%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Both (Strong)

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 0.19

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

867

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

702

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

1.23

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

51.4%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

0.79

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

72.4%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

63.8%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

26.7%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+52,333	-94,436	+30,295	245,595	61.5%	72.4%	0.79	+13,940 (+36.3%)
2026-04-07	+38,393	-80,781	+29,166	224,634	42.3%	57.1%	0.11	-779 (-2.0%)
2026-03-31	+39,172	-77,345	+27,536	220,756	44.2%	59.0%	0.16	+3,888 (+11.0%)
2026-03-24	+35,284	-72,073	+25,785	221,772	36.5%	51.4%	-0.02	-11,274 (-24.2%)
2026-03-17	+46,558	-85,233	+25,799	231,319	53.8%	67.6%	0.53	-1,118 (-2.3%)
2026-03-10	+47,676	-86,859	+24,226	235,322	55.8%	68.6%	0.59	-818 (-1.7%)
2026-03-03	+48,494	-91,801	+22,057	244,932	59.6%	70.5%	0.65	-2,533 (-5.0%)
2026-02-24	+51,027	-95,787	+23,439	261,235	61.5%	72.4%	0.78	-2,747 (-5.1%)
2026-02-17	+53,774	-96,867	+22,981	272,967	63.5%	74.3%	0.92	-1,790 (-3.2%)
2026-02-10	+55,564	-80,967	+20,175	270,792	65.4%	77.1%	0.99	-359 (-0.6%)
2026-02-03	+55,923	-82,035	+19,484	278,845	67.3%	78.1%	1.02	-2,095 (-3.6%)
2026-01-27	+58,018	-86,956	+22,144	278,219	75.0%	81.9%	1.13	-4,788 (-7.6%)
2026-01-20	+62,806	-89,963	+20,777	278,431	84.6%	86.7%	1.33	-585 (-0.9%)
2026-01-13	+63,391	-82,723	+13,761	269,813	86.5%	87.6%	1.37	-4,851 (-7.1%)
2026-01-06	+68,242	-85,355	+13,341	267,027	92.3%	94.3%	1.58	-2,777 (-3.9%)
2025-12-30	+71,019	-85,059	+12,351	260,139	96.2%	96.2%	1.74	-4,600 (-6.1%)
2025-12-23	+75,619	-95,818	+15,372	267,343	100.0%	100.0%	1.97	+485 (+0.6%)
2025-12-16	+75,134	-92,012	+13,133	256,887	100.0%	99.0%	2.01	+4,650 (+6.6%)
2025-12-09	+70,484	-90,159	+13,976	250,821	100.0%	98.1%	1.87	+7,025 (+11.1%)
2025-12-02	+63,459	-81,486	+14,970	242,931	98.1%	93.3%	1.62	+5,912 (+10.3%)
2025-11-25	+57,547	-73,192	+19,191	233,461	90.4%	89.5%	1.40	-4,056 (-6.6%)
2025-11-18	+61,603	-80,055	+16,935	251,537	96.2%	92.4%	1.61	-3,899 (-6.0%)
2025-11-10	+65,502	-84,280	+18,455	312,609	100.0%	96.2%	1.81	+4,773 (+7.9%)
2025-11-04	+60,729	-82,568	+13,984	269,926	98.1%	93.3%	1.64	-1,265 (-2.0%)
2025-10-28	+61,994	-81,485	+20,682	272,068	100.0%	94.3%	1.73	+5,318 (+9.4%)
2025-10-21	+56,676	-69,959	+17,826	258,680	98.1%	93.3%	1.53	-1,708 (-2.9%)
2025-10-14	+58,384	-68,913	+15,670	252,089	100.0%	94.3%	1.62	+1,935 (+3.4%)
2025-10-07	+56,449	-69,239	+18,367	250,850	100.0%	94.3%	1.58	+8,024 (+16.6%)
2025-09-30	+48,425	-62,044	+19,494	230,658	100.0%	90.5%	1.25	+5,036 (+11.6%)
2025-09-23	+43,389	-55,108	+16,855	227,318	100.0%	88.6%	1.04	+1,292 (+3.1%)
2025-09-16	+42,097	-55,169	+16,745	221,011	100.0%	88.6%	1.01	+3,722 (+9.7%)
2025-09-09	+38,375	-51,763	+15,748	208,356	94.2%	82.9%	0.86	+2,819 (+7.9%)
2025-09-02	+35,556	-48,071	+14,121	195,673	84.6%	78.1%	0.75	+6,802 (+23.7%)
2025-08-26	+28,754	-49,402	+14,408	190,049	78.8%	74.3%	0.47	+3,145 (+12.3%)
2025-08-19	+25,609	-47,555	+12,190	195,080	73.1%	71.4%	0.34	+441 (+1.8%)
2025-08-12	+25,168	-49,463	+11,430	193,751	71.2%	70.5%	0.34	+6,919 (+37.9%)
2025-08-05	+18,249	-45,947	+13,185	197,933	40.4%	53.3%	0.05	-18,411 (-50.2%)
2025-07-29	+36,660	-42,382	+5,306	228,444	86.5%	79.0%	0.84	-2,619 (-6.7%)
2025-07-22	+39,279	-46,245	+5,631	228,192	96.2%	85.7%	0.97	-24 (-0.1%)
2025-07-15	+39,303	-46,692	+4,667	224,583	98.1%	86.7%	0.99	+1,665 (+4.4%)
2025-07-08	+37,638	-47,143	+6,041	230,251	96.2%	84.8%	0.93	+5,848 (+18.4%)
2025-07-01	+31,790	-42,928	+5,635	212,300	86.5%	80.0%	0.69	+3,541 (+12.5%)
2025-06-24	+28,249	-37,417	+5,698	203,404	80.8%	78.1%	0.54	+5,601 (+24.7%)
2025-06-17	+22,648	-36,450	+7,767	202,728	67.3%	71.4%	0.30	-2,964 (-11.6%)
2025-06-10	+25,612	-37,805	+7,521	207,359	76.9%	78.1%	0.44	+2,447 (+10.6%)
2025-06-03	+23,165	-36,012	+8,999	211,857	67.3%	73.3%	0.34	+2,328 (+11.2%)
2025-05-27	+20,837	-31,806	+5,731	208,601	59.6%	69.5%	0.26	-45 (-0.2%)
2025-05-20	+20,882	-33,015	+9,592	205,105	59.6%	70.5%	0.27	-2,910 (-12.2%)
2025-05-13	+23,792	-33,842	+9,499	195,840	63.5%	75.2%	0.41	+1,707 (+7.7%)
2025-05-06	+22,085	-33,026	+10,671	192,752	59.6%	73.3%	0.35	+3,159 (+16.7%)
2025-04-29	+18,926	-30,762	+10,698	191,990	50.0%	66.7%	0.23	+2,771 (+17.2%)
2025-04-22	+16,155	-31,995	+8,345	196,712	38.5%	61.0%	0.13	+2,785 (+20.8%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersNonreportableOther Reportables