Corn

Neutral

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-04-14

← Back to Dashboard

Price

448.75

+0.2500 (+0.1%)

52-wk Range

68%

382.75 — 478.75

Managed Money Net

+152,618

WoW: -58,358 (-27.7%)

Producer Net

-495,632

WoW: +33,858 (+6.4%)

Swap Dealer Net

+293,445

WoW: -3,076 (-1.0%)

CIT Net

+348,061

WoW: -34,479 (-9.0%)

52-wk Percentile

90.4%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

82.9%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

1.04

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

-0.54%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

28.6%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Weak

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 67.3%

Price Context

Price is in the upper half of its range (68%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (83th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

Report Date Price

448.50

+4.50 (+1.01%) WoW

52-Week Range

382.75

478.75

68%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

⚠️ Weak

Avg Return

-0.54%

Win Rate

28.6%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 50+2.70% (65%)

Week 51+2.41% (85%)

Week 53+2.40% (67%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 29-4.05% (20%)

Week 25-3.29% (25%)

Week 28-1.68% (50%)

Planting season (Apr–May) and pollination (Jul) are key uncertainty windows that tend to support prices. Post-harvest pressure (Oct–Nov) typically weighs on corn.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is elevated (83th percentile — leaning bearish) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

4.99+0.00 (+0.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.60+0.01 (+0.2%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

15.6%

High

Producer 52-wk %ile

11.5%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

16.2%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:LowSpread percentile: 77.1%WoW: -25,534 (-8.2%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: -0.51

Concentration Risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

3,096

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

2,629

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

1.18

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

34.3%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

1.04

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

82.9%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

74.3%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

18.1%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+152,618	-495,632	+293,445	+348,061	1,834,153	90.4%	82.9%	1.04	-58,358 (-27.7%)
2026-04-07	+210,976	-529,490	+296,521	+382,540	1,816,790	94.2%	88.6%	1.39	-46,976 (-18.2%)
2026-03-31	+257,952	-572,360	+298,717	+387,863	1,826,697	98.1%	92.4%	1.68	-21,678 (-7.8%)
2026-03-24	+279,630	-613,518	+299,296	+396,426	1,796,424	100.0%	93.3%	1.84	+48,742 (+21.1%)
2026-03-17	+230,888	-563,874	+308,251	+396,610	1,773,499	100.0%	92.4%	1.61	+32,084 (+16.1%)
2026-03-10	+198,804	-514,056	+304,874	+384,907	1,723,308	100.0%	90.5%	1.47	+146,561 (+280.5%)
2026-03-03	+52,243	-365,054	+305,272	+340,431	1,617,461	82.7%	76.2%	0.65	+65,477 (+494.8%)
2026-02-24	-13,234	-286,685	+299,140	+323,924	1,656,135	67.3%	68.6%	0.30	+29,079 (+68.7%)
2026-02-17	-42,313	-245,821	+271,811	+321,113	1,779,922	63.5%	65.7%	0.14	+15,180 (+26.4%)
2026-02-10	-57,493	-239,098	+276,436	+323,074	1,736,012	59.6%	64.8%	0.07	+23,120 (+28.7%)
2026-02-03	-80,613	-207,268	+260,184	+311,008	1,740,882	53.8%	61.0%	-0.05	+983 (+1.2%)
2026-01-27	-81,596	-202,984	+255,675	+298,286	1,707,454	50.0%	60.0%	-0.04	+14,271 (+14.9%)
2026-01-20	-95,867	-184,466	+252,510	+310,002	1,667,786	38.5%	53.3%	-0.11	-5,209 (-5.7%)
2026-01-13	-90,658	-198,776	+247,699	+316,765	1,613,386	42.3%	57.1%	-0.07	-77,828 (-606.6%)
2026-01-06	-12,830	-277,791	+235,938	+296,507	1,537,728	55.8%	69.5%	0.36	+9,918 (+43.6%)
2025-12-30	-22,748	-259,742	+233,391	+298,008	1,543,015	53.8%	69.5%	0.31	-24,540 (-1369.4%)
2025-12-23	+1,792	-279,914	+238,914	+306,637	1,516,552	55.8%	71.4%	0.45	+55,158 (+103.4%)
2025-12-16	-53,366	-233,812	+243,416	+322,794	1,522,658	51.9%	68.6%	0.16	-72,102 (-384.8%)
2025-12-09	+18,736	-292,813	+248,562	+329,442	1,473,739	53.8%	73.3%	0.56	-13,599 (-42.1%)
2025-12-02	+32,335	-308,333	+249,482	+330,251	1,459,743	55.8%	75.2%	0.65	+39,136 (+575.4%)
2025-11-25	-6,801	-272,910	+241,837	+327,491	1,488,652	51.9%	73.3%	0.44	-55,589 (-113.9%)
2025-11-18	+48,788	-327,680	+242,718	+316,060	1,616,139	53.8%	76.2%	0.76	+115,029 (+173.7%)
2025-11-04	-66,241	-218,600	+235,333	+300,216	1,616,914	48.1%	70.5%	0.14	+16,684 (+20.1%)
2025-10-28	-82,925	-194,301	+227,636	+274,637	1,637,907	44.2%	68.6%	0.05	+76,347 (+47.9%)
2025-10-21	-159,272	-121,632	+222,277	+260,124	1,644,250	11.5%	41.9%	-0.36	+28,720 (+15.3%)
2025-10-14	-187,992	-80,427	+220,919	+260,849	1,655,731	3.8%	34.3%	-0.52	-53,380 (-39.7%)
2025-10-07	-134,612	-109,757	+227,473	+258,273	1,596,361	21.2%	52.4%	-0.23	-5,255 (-4.1%)
2025-09-30	-129,357	-118,721	+223,424	+269,696	1,550,059	23.1%	55.2%	-0.20	-32,034 (-32.9%)
2025-09-23	-97,323	-148,786	+228,432	+286,042	1,543,065	30.8%	63.8%	-0.03	-15,826 (-19.4%)
2025-09-16	-81,497	-156,836	+225,209	+299,621	1,529,796	40.4%	69.5%	0.06	+18,096 (+18.2%)
2025-09-09	-99,593	-136,786	+222,776	+309,589	1,477,847	32.7%	63.8%	-0.03	-4,396 (-4.6%)
2025-09-02	-95,197	-130,951	+218,765	+307,183	1,454,514	36.5%	66.7%	-0.01	+15,738 (+14.2%)
2025-08-26	-110,935	-116,427	+210,196	+294,550	1,456,701	32.7%	60.0%	-0.10	+3,702 (+3.2%)
2025-08-19	-114,637	-78,729	+202,684	+268,702	1,566,367	32.7%	60.0%	-0.12	+27,702 (+19.5%)
2025-08-12	-142,339	-51,163	+206,342	+262,045	1,549,876	26.9%	52.4%	-0.27	-6,493 (-4.8%)
2025-08-05	-135,846	-57,783	+205,655	+266,572	1,617,501	30.8%	54.3%	-0.24	+15,098 (+10.0%)
2025-07-29	-150,944	-53,366	+217,263	+274,903	1,575,283	21.2%	44.8%	-0.33	-181 (-0.1%)
2025-07-22	-150,763	-49,016	+214,539	+275,077	1,493,670	23.1%	44.8%	-0.34	+8,281 (+5.2%)
2025-07-15	-159,044	-63,188	+220,455	+276,126	1,470,395	23.1%	41.9%	-0.39	+20,243 (+11.3%)
2025-07-08	-179,287	-61,770	+227,434	+282,156	1,498,964	19.2%	35.2%	-0.50	+10,253 (+5.4%)
2025-07-01	-189,540	-60,972	+235,232	+284,262	1,498,667	17.3%	32.4%	-0.57	-14,144 (-8.1%)
2025-06-24	-175,396	-98,316	+241,844	+283,594	1,534,968	21.2%	35.2%	-0.51	-6,324 (-3.7%)
2025-06-17	-169,072	-118,524	+247,441	+292,865	1,592,477	23.1%	37.1%	-0.48	-18,929 (-12.6%)
2025-06-10	-150,143	-129,417	+243,968	+293,899	1,614,274	25.0%	40.0%	-0.39	-16,164 (-12.1%)
2025-06-03	-133,979	-160,561	+265,286	+326,998	1,669,150	32.7%	46.7%	-0.30	-43,830 (-48.6%)
2025-05-27	-90,149	-209,007	+261,571	+326,490	1,654,814	38.5%	58.1%	-0.07	+5,334 (+5.6%)
2025-05-20	-95,483	-225,288	+264,302	+313,094	1,637,956	38.5%	55.2%	-0.10	-31,211 (-48.6%)
2025-05-13	-64,272	-244,201	+257,352	+332,423	1,589,429	44.2%	61.9%	0.08	-93,291 (-321.5%)
2025-05-06	+29,019	-332,672	+257,375	+356,798	1,548,526	51.9%	74.3%	0.59	-57,110 (-66.3%)
2025-04-29	+86,129	-388,185	+259,531	+381,405	1,543,934	59.6%	80.0%	0.90	-46,285 (-35.0%)
2025-04-22	+132,414	-421,612	+260,133	+398,844	1,707,988	73.1%	86.7%	1.15	-12,740 (-8.8%)
2025-04-15	+145,154	-441,207	+262,108	+394,764	1,723,995	75.0%	87.6%	1.24	+13,970 (+10.6%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantSwap DealersManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportable