Cotton

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-10-13

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Cotton futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is high versus the last two years (91th percentile).

Crowd risk

Liquidation Risk

82.3% of Managed Money contracts are long, which raises exit-risk even if net positioning is not at a high percentile.

Price context

Price sits 63% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Neutral seasonal bias for week 43. Macro is supportive.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

81.02

As of 2026-10-22 · +0.9600 (+1.2%)

52-wk Range

63%

61.06 — 91.06

Managed Money Net

+58,025

WoW: +907 (+1.6%)

Producer Net

-144,805

WoW: +1,931 (+1.3%)

Swap Dealer Net

+43,359

WoW: +128 (+0.3%)

CIT Net

+72,430

WoW: +813 (+1.1%)

52-wk Percentile

82.7%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

91.4%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

1.60

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

-0.22%

Week 43 · 20y avg

Seasonal Win%

50.0%

20 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 82.3%

Price Context

Price is in the upper half of its range (63%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (91th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

COT Baseline Price

80.06

As of 2026-10-12

+3.85 (+5.05%) WoW

52-Week Range

61.06

91.06

63%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (43)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

-0.22%

Win Rate

50.0%(20y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 48+2.88% (75%)

Week 50+2.32% (75%)

Week 3+1.86% (76%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 25-2.35% (43%)

Week 38-1.61% (33%)

Week 27-1.57% (43%)

Planting (Apr–May) and harvest (Sep–Nov) frame the seasonal pattern. Monsoon and hurricane risk during the growing season (Jun–Sep) can trigger short-covering rallies.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (91th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

101.63-0.37 (-0.4%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

5.05-0.05 (-1.0%)↓

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.72+0.08 (+3.1%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

19.03+2.57 (+15.6%)↑

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-10-13	+58,025	-144,805	+43,359	+72,430	395,640	82.7%	91.4%	1.60	+907 (+1.6%)
2026-10-06	+57,118	-146,736	+43,231	+71,617	382,230	82.7%	91.4%	1.61	-10,719 (-15.8%)
2026-09-29	+67,837	-148,114	+43,673	+76,220	389,494	88.5%	94.3%	1.86	-8,345 (-11.0%)
2026-09-22	+76,182	-154,611	+41,801	+78,018	384,016	92.3%	96.2%	2.09	-15,753 (-17.1%)
2026-09-15	+91,935	-166,403	+40,717	+76,100	380,206	96.2%	98.1%	2.49	-3,432 (-3.6%)
2026-09-08	+95,367	-174,281	+41,027	+76,758	380,405	98.1%	99.0%	2.67	-5,596 (-5.5%)
2026-09-01	+100,963	-178,611	+36,711	+72,621	383,730	100.0%	100.0%	2.92	+12,670 (+14.3%)
2026-08-25	+88,293	-170,160	+36,712	+71,927	374,859	100.0%	100.0%	2.78	+15,621 (+21.5%)
2026-08-18	+72,672	-159,389	+40,188	+68,153	361,871	100.0%	100.0%	2.54	+5,892 (+8.8%)
2026-08-11	+66,780	-149,999	+36,473	+66,103	349,370	100.0%	100.0%	2.50	+11,459 (+20.7%)
2026-08-04	+55,321	-140,793	+35,667	+63,512	331,500	96.2%	98.1%	2.31	+8,953 (+19.3%)
2026-07-28	+46,368	-131,176	+30,809	+60,535	323,777	88.5%	94.3%	2.16	-691 (-1.5%)
2026-07-21	+47,059	-132,301	+29,623	+59,134	317,825	90.4%	95.2%	2.25	+3,133 (+7.1%)
2026-07-14	+43,926	-133,903	+28,625	+55,603	322,307	90.4%	95.2%	2.24	+9,572 (+27.9%)
2026-07-07	+34,354	-126,462	+30,923	+54,620	318,052	84.6%	92.4%	2.05	+4,931 (+16.8%)
2026-06-30	+29,423	-116,266	+32,744	+53,972	305,708	80.8%	90.5%	1.97	-5,850 (-16.6%)
2026-06-23	+35,273	-123,846	+33,392	+56,838	302,703	86.5%	93.3%	2.20	+1,731 (+5.2%)
2026-06-16	+33,542	-122,824	+38,345	+55,229	306,642	86.5%	93.3%	2.22	-8,996 (-21.1%)
2026-06-09	+42,538	-117,585	+35,668	+50,635	324,979	90.4%	95.2%	2.57	-7,361 (-14.8%)
2026-06-02	+49,899	-130,478	+37,057	+57,602	345,818	94.2%	97.1%	2.90	-5,385 (-9.7%)
2026-05-26	+55,284	-128,593	+31,842	+57,314	331,157	96.2%	98.1%	3.23	-4,381 (-7.3%)
2026-05-19	+59,665	-135,638	+32,093	+59,001	329,298	100.0%	100.0%	3.57	+4,172 (+7.5%)
2026-05-12	+55,493	-143,537	+26,378	+53,900	335,218	100.0%	100.0%	3.66	+7,156 (+14.8%)
2026-05-05	+48,337	-145,146	+30,215	+57,561	332,623	100.0%	100.0%	3.61	+11,845 (+32.5%)
2026-04-28	+36,492	-129,690	+36,686	+56,093	323,836	100.0%	100.0%	3.31	+5,163 (+16.5%)
2026-04-21	+31,329	-128,726	+33,583	+52,633	329,774	100.0%	99.0%	3.10	+18,213 (+138.9%)
2026-04-14	+13,116	-118,433	+36,739	+52,956	328,443	100.0%	98.1%	2.24	+13,561 (+3047.4%)
2026-04-07	-445	-113,660	+43,817	+48,849	346,121	100.0%	96.2%	1.54	+9,439 (+95.5%)
2026-03-31	-9,884	-96,282	+38,334	+47,064	347,695	100.0%	93.3%	1.07	+23,662 (+70.5%)
2026-03-24	-33,546	-73,487	+44,513	+46,866	327,959	94.2%	72.4%	0.22	+6,292 (+15.8%)
2026-03-17	-39,838	-66,930	+43,208	+48,220	341,326	90.4%	64.8%	-0.01	+28,112 (+41.4%)
2026-03-10	-67,950	-31,665	+50,015	+50,967	329,892	26.9%	15.2%	-0.80	+6,249 (+8.4%)
2026-03-03	-74,199	-33,200	+57,723	+56,016	328,391	17.3%	8.6%	-0.96	-7,918 (-11.9%)
2026-02-24	-66,281	-32,282	+57,609	+60,189	320,823	30.8%	15.2%	-0.77	+14,424 (+17.9%)
2026-02-17	-80,705	-3,243	+57,632	+60,707	338,635	3.8%	1.9%	-1.12	-4,192 (-5.5%)
2026-02-10	-76,513	-2,220	+52,287	+57,417	360,578	9.6%	4.8%	-1.04	-4,177 (-5.8%)
2026-02-03	-72,336	-2,694	+45,092	+51,619	380,025	15.4%	7.6%	-0.96	-7,354 (-11.3%)
2026-01-27	-64,982	-259	+38,907	+53,548	362,629	28.8%	14.3%	-0.80	-13,436 (-26.1%)
2026-01-20	-51,546	-17,723	+41,138	+60,092	338,853	61.5%	31.4%	-0.50	-1,819 (-3.7%)
2026-01-13	-49,727	-13,247	+37,563	+58,942	327,793	65.4%	35.2%	-0.47	-2,535 (-5.4%)
2026-01-06	-47,192	-9,426	+34,285	+54,110	311,647	71.2%	40.0%	-0.42	+1,364 (+2.8%)
2025-12-30	-48,556	-7,279	+37,374	+53,561	300,962	67.3%	37.1%	-0.46	+1,167 (+2.3%)
2025-12-23	-49,723	-6,918	+38,267	+53,644	300,552	65.4%	35.2%	-0.50	+6,900 (+12.2%)
2025-12-16	-56,623	-1,214	+41,457	+57,989	297,995	51.9%	25.7%	-0.67	-334 (-0.6%)
2025-12-09	-56,289	-3,639	+41,173	+57,427	289,386	51.9%	25.7%	-0.68	+4,416 (+7.3%)
2025-12-02	-60,705	-863	+40,776	+57,081	283,123	36.5%	18.1%	-0.79	+2,725 (+4.3%)
2025-11-25	-63,430	+4,205	+38,679	+57,559	279,249	30.8%	15.2%	-0.87	-3,711 (-6.2%)
2025-11-18	-59,719	+5,712	+39,015	+60,169	279,627	38.5%	19.0%	-0.80	+4,563 (+7.1%)
2025-11-04	-64,282	+2,990	+40,854	+55,587	303,302	28.8%	14.3%	-0.92	+9,320 (+12.7%)
2025-10-28	-73,602	+17,241	+38,470	+53,002	293,885	13.5%	6.7%	-1.16	+6,304 (+7.9%)
2025-10-21	-79,906	+24,008	+40,496	+53,256	287,348	5.8%	2.9%	-1.33	+530 (+0.7%)
2025-10-14	-80,436	+31,264	+37,069	+55,084	294,187	3.8%	1.9%	-1.36	-4,439 (-5.8%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersOther ReportablesNonreportable