Cotton

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-08-25

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Cotton futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is high versus the last two years (100th percentile).

Crowd risk

Liquidation Risk

86.6% of Managed Money contracts are long, which raises exit-risk even if net positioning is not at a high percentile.

Price context

Price sits 100% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Neutral seasonal bias for week 35. Macro is mixed.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

91.54

As of 2026-08-28 · +0.4800 (+0.5%)

52-wk Range

100%

61.06 — 91.06

Managed Money Net

+88,293

WoW: +15,621 (+21.5%)

Producer Net

-170,160

WoW: -10,771 (-6.8%)

Swap Dealer Net

+36,712

WoW: -3,476 (-8.6%)

CIT Net

+71,927

WoW: +3,774 (+5.5%)

52-wk Percentile

100.0%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

100.0%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

2.78

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+0.16%

Week 35 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

57.1%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 86.6%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (100%) and managed money is heavily long (100th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

COT Baseline Price

91.06

As of 2026-08-24

+4.04 (+4.64%) WoW

52-Week Range

61.06

91.06

100%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (35)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.16%

Win Rate

57.1%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 48+2.88% (75%)

Week 50+2.32% (75%)

Week 3+1.86% (76%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 25-2.35% (43%)

Week 27-1.57% (43%)

Week 46-1.38% (45%)

Planting (Apr–May) and harvest (Sep–Nov) frame the seasonal pattern. Monsoon and hurricane risk during the growing season (Jun–Sep) can trigger short-covering rallies.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (100th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Mixed.

DXY (USD Index)

99.68+0.52 (+0.5%)↑

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

5.21+0.06 (+1.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.40-0.06 (-2.5%)↓

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

14.43-0.08 (-0.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-08-25	+88,293	-170,160	+36,712	+71,927	374,859	100.0%	100.0%	2.78	+15,621 (+21.5%)
2026-08-18	+72,672	-159,389	+40,188	+68,153	361,871	100.0%	100.0%	2.54	+5,892 (+8.8%)
2026-08-11	+66,780	-149,999	+36,473	+66,103	349,370	100.0%	100.0%	2.50	+11,459 (+20.7%)
2026-08-04	+55,321	-140,793	+35,667	+63,512	331,500	96.2%	98.1%	2.31	+8,953 (+19.3%)
2026-07-28	+46,368	-131,176	+30,809	+60,535	323,777	88.5%	94.3%	2.16	-691 (-1.5%)
2026-07-21	+47,059	-132,301	+29,623	+59,134	317,825	90.4%	95.2%	2.25	+3,133 (+7.1%)
2026-07-14	+43,926	-133,903	+28,625	+55,603	322,307	90.4%	95.2%	2.24	+9,572 (+27.9%)
2026-07-07	+34,354	-126,462	+30,923	+54,620	318,052	84.6%	92.4%	2.05	+4,931 (+16.8%)
2026-06-30	+29,423	-116,266	+32,744	+53,972	305,708	80.8%	90.5%	1.97	-5,850 (-16.6%)
2026-06-23	+35,273	-123,846	+33,392	+56,838	302,703	86.5%	93.3%	2.20	+1,731 (+5.2%)
2026-06-16	+33,542	-122,824	+38,345	+55,229	306,642	86.5%	93.3%	2.22	-8,996 (-21.1%)
2026-06-09	+42,538	-117,585	+35,668	+50,635	324,979	90.4%	95.2%	2.57	-7,361 (-14.8%)
2026-06-02	+49,899	-130,478	+37,057	+57,602	345,818	94.2%	97.1%	2.90	-5,385 (-9.7%)
2026-05-26	+55,284	-128,593	+31,842	+57,314	331,157	96.2%	98.1%	3.23	-4,381 (-7.3%)
2026-05-19	+59,665	-135,638	+32,093	+59,001	329,298	100.0%	100.0%	3.57	+4,172 (+7.5%)
2026-05-12	+55,493	-143,537	+26,378	+53,900	335,218	100.0%	100.0%	3.66	+7,156 (+14.8%)
2026-05-05	+48,337	-145,146	+30,215	+57,561	332,623	100.0%	100.0%	3.61	+11,845 (+32.5%)
2026-04-28	+36,492	-129,690	+36,686	+56,093	323,836	100.0%	100.0%	3.31	+5,163 (+16.5%)
2026-04-21	+31,329	-128,726	+33,583	+52,633	329,774	100.0%	99.0%	3.10	+18,213 (+138.9%)
2026-04-14	+13,116	-118,433	+36,739	+52,956	328,443	100.0%	98.1%	2.24	+13,561 (+3047.4%)
2026-04-07	-445	-113,660	+43,817	+48,849	346,121	100.0%	96.2%	1.54	+9,439 (+95.5%)
2026-03-31	-9,884	-96,282	+38,334	+47,064	347,695	100.0%	93.3%	1.07	+23,662 (+70.5%)
2026-03-24	-33,546	-73,487	+44,513	+46,866	327,959	94.2%	72.4%	0.22	+6,292 (+15.8%)
2026-03-17	-39,838	-66,930	+43,208	+48,220	341,326	90.4%	64.8%	-0.01	+28,112 (+41.4%)
2026-03-10	-67,950	-31,665	+50,015	+50,967	329,892	26.9%	15.2%	-0.80	+6,249 (+8.4%)
2026-03-03	-74,199	-33,200	+57,723	+56,016	328,391	17.3%	8.6%	-0.96	-7,918 (-11.9%)
2026-02-24	-66,281	-32,282	+57,609	+60,189	320,823	30.8%	15.2%	-0.77	+14,424 (+17.9%)
2026-02-17	-80,705	-3,243	+57,632	+60,707	338,635	3.8%	1.9%	-1.12	-4,192 (-5.5%)
2026-02-10	-76,513	-2,220	+52,287	+57,417	360,578	9.6%	4.8%	-1.04	-4,177 (-5.8%)
2026-02-03	-72,336	-2,694	+45,092	+51,619	380,025	15.4%	7.6%	-0.96	-7,354 (-11.3%)
2026-01-27	-64,982	-259	+38,907	+53,548	362,629	28.8%	14.3%	-0.80	-13,436 (-26.1%)
2026-01-20	-51,546	-17,723	+41,138	+60,092	338,853	61.5%	31.4%	-0.50	-1,819 (-3.7%)
2026-01-13	-49,727	-13,247	+37,563	+58,942	327,793	65.4%	35.2%	-0.47	-2,535 (-5.4%)
2026-01-06	-47,192	-9,426	+34,285	+54,110	311,647	71.2%	40.0%	-0.42	+1,364 (+2.8%)
2025-12-30	-48,556	-7,279	+37,374	+53,561	300,962	67.3%	37.1%	-0.46	+1,167 (+2.3%)
2025-12-23	-49,723	-6,918	+38,267	+53,644	300,552	65.4%	35.2%	-0.50	+6,900 (+12.2%)
2025-12-16	-56,623	-1,214	+41,457	+57,989	297,995	51.9%	25.7%	-0.67	-334 (-0.6%)
2025-12-09	-56,289	-3,639	+41,173	+57,427	289,386	51.9%	25.7%	-0.68	+4,416 (+7.3%)
2025-12-02	-60,705	-863	+40,776	+57,081	283,123	36.5%	18.1%	-0.79	+2,725 (+4.3%)
2025-11-25	-63,430	+4,205	+38,679	+57,559	279,249	30.8%	15.2%	-0.87	-3,711 (-6.2%)
2025-11-18	-59,719	+5,712	+39,015	+60,169	279,627	38.5%	19.0%	-0.80	+4,563 (+7.1%)
2025-11-04	-64,282	+2,990	+40,854	+55,587	303,302	28.8%	14.3%	-0.92	+9,320 (+12.7%)
2025-10-28	-73,602	+17,241	+38,470	+53,002	293,885	13.5%	6.7%	-1.16	+6,304 (+7.9%)
2025-10-21	-79,906	+24,008	+40,496	+53,256	287,348	5.8%	2.9%	-1.33	+530 (+0.7%)
2025-10-14	-80,436	+31,264	+37,069	+55,084	294,187	3.8%	1.9%	-1.36	-4,439 (-5.8%)
2025-10-07	-75,997	+22,623	+37,195	+56,228	278,939	5.8%	2.9%	-1.29	-10,972 (-16.9%)
2025-09-30	-65,025	+11,689	+39,853	+57,511	278,283	19.2%	9.5%	-1.05	-2,254 (-3.6%)
2025-09-23	-62,771	+4,849	+41,476	+58,427	265,373	19.2%	9.5%	-1.02	-2,491 (-4.1%)
2025-09-16	-60,280	+1,305	+41,296	+61,235	258,584	23.1%	11.4%	-0.98	+9,268 (+13.3%)
2025-09-09	-69,548	+9,226	+43,562	+60,734	257,154	9.6%	4.8%	-1.21	-2,265 (-3.4%)
2025-09-02	-67,283	+4,458	+44,510	+61,164	253,334	13.5%	6.7%	-1.18	-6,298 (-10.3%)
2025-08-26	-60,985	-4,860	+42,394	+59,842	242,777	15.4%	7.6%	-1.06	-4,172 (-7.3%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersOther ReportablesNonreportable