Cotton

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

77.40

+1.70 (+2.2%)

52-wk Range

100%

61.06 — 75.70

Managed Money Net

+13,116

WoW: +13,561 (+3047.4%)

Producer Net

-118,433

WoW: -4,773 (-4.2%)

Swap Dealer Net

+36,739

WoW: -7,078 (-16.2%)

CIT Net

+52,956

WoW: +4,107 (+8.4%)

52-wk Percentile

100.0%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

98.1%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

2.24

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

-0.37%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

42.9%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 56.7%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (100%) and managed money is heavily long (98th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

Report Date Price

75.70

+2.44 (+3.33%) WoW

52-Week Range

61.06

75.70

100%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

-0.37%

Win Rate

42.9%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 48+2.88% (75%)

Week 50+2.32% (75%)

Week 3+1.86% (76%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 25-2.93% (40%)

Week 27-1.93% (40%)

Week 46-1.38% (45%)

Planting (Apr–May) and harvest (Sep–Nov) frame the seasonal pattern. Monsoon and hurricane risk during the growing season (Jun–Sep) can trigger short-covering rallies.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (98th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

4.99+0.00 (+0.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.60+0.01 (+0.2%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

10.8%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

1.9%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

1.0%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 3.8%WoW: -5,395 (-13.2%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Both (Strong)

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 4.36Double Crowded — high reversal risk

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

811

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

751

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

1.08

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

71.4%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Confirmed

Raw Z-Score

2.24

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

98.1%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

95.2%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

2.9%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+13,116	-118,433	+36,739	+52,956	328,443	100.0%	98.1%	2.24	+13,561 (+3047.4%)
2026-04-07	-445	-113,660	+43,817	+48,849	346,121	100.0%	96.2%	1.54	+9,439 (+95.5%)
2026-03-31	-9,884	-96,282	+38,334	+47,064	347,695	100.0%	93.3%	1.07	+23,662 (+70.5%)
2026-03-24	-33,546	-73,487	+44,513	+46,866	327,959	94.2%	72.4%	0.22	+6,292 (+15.8%)
2026-03-17	-39,838	-66,930	+43,208	+48,220	341,326	90.4%	64.8%	-0.01	+28,112 (+41.4%)
2026-03-10	-67,950	-31,665	+50,015	+50,967	329,892	26.9%	15.2%	-0.80	+6,249 (+8.4%)
2026-03-03	-74,199	-33,200	+57,723	+56,016	328,391	17.3%	8.6%	-0.96	-7,918 (-11.9%)
2026-02-24	-66,281	-32,282	+57,609	+60,189	320,823	30.8%	15.2%	-0.77	+14,424 (+17.9%)
2026-02-17	-80,705	-3,243	+57,632	+60,707	338,635	3.8%	1.9%	-1.12	-4,192 (-5.5%)
2026-02-10	-76,513	-2,220	+52,287	+57,417	360,578	9.6%	4.8%	-1.04	-4,177 (-5.8%)
2026-02-03	-72,336	-2,694	+45,092	+51,619	380,025	15.4%	7.6%	-0.96	-7,354 (-11.3%)
2026-01-27	-64,982	-259	+38,907	+53,548	362,629	28.8%	14.3%	-0.80	-13,436 (-26.1%)
2026-01-20	-51,546	-17,723	+41,138	+60,092	338,853	61.5%	31.4%	-0.50	-1,819 (-3.7%)
2026-01-13	-49,727	-13,247	+37,563	+58,942	327,793	65.4%	35.2%	-0.47	-2,535 (-5.4%)
2026-01-06	-47,192	-9,426	+34,285	+54,110	311,647	71.2%	40.0%	-0.42	+1,364 (+2.8%)
2025-12-30	-48,556	-7,279	+37,374	+53,561	300,962	67.3%	37.1%	-0.46	+1,167 (+2.3%)
2025-12-23	-49,723	-6,918	+38,267	+53,644	300,552	65.4%	35.2%	-0.50	+6,900 (+12.2%)
2025-12-16	-56,623	-1,214	+41,457	+57,989	297,995	51.9%	25.7%	-0.67	-334 (-0.6%)
2025-12-09	-56,289	-3,639	+41,173	+57,427	289,386	51.9%	25.7%	-0.68	+4,416 (+7.3%)
2025-12-02	-60,705	-863	+40,776	+57,081	283,123	36.5%	18.1%	-0.79	+2,725 (+4.3%)
2025-11-25	-63,430	+4,205	+38,679	+57,559	279,249	30.8%	15.2%	-0.87	-3,711 (-6.2%)
2025-11-18	-59,719	+5,712	+39,015	+60,169	279,627	38.5%	19.0%	-0.80	+4,563 (+7.1%)
2025-11-04	-64,282	+2,990	+40,854	+55,587	303,302	28.8%	14.3%	-0.92	+9,320 (+12.7%)
2025-10-28	-73,602	+17,241	+38,470	+53,002	293,885	13.5%	6.7%	-1.16	+6,304 (+7.9%)
2025-10-21	-79,906	+24,008	+40,496	+53,256	287,348	5.8%	2.9%	-1.33	+530 (+0.7%)
2025-10-14	-80,436	+31,264	+37,069	+55,084	294,187	3.8%	1.9%	-1.36	-4,439 (-5.8%)
2025-10-07	-75,997	+22,623	+37,195	+56,228	278,939	5.8%	2.9%	-1.29	-10,972 (-16.9%)
2025-09-30	-65,025	+11,689	+39,853	+57,511	278,283	19.2%	9.5%	-1.05	-2,254 (-3.6%)
2025-09-23	-62,771	+4,849	+41,476	+58,427	265,373	19.2%	9.5%	-1.02	-2,491 (-4.1%)
2025-09-16	-60,280	+1,305	+41,296	+61,235	258,584	23.1%	11.4%	-0.98	+9,268 (+13.3%)
2025-09-09	-69,548	+9,226	+43,562	+60,734	257,154	9.6%	4.8%	-1.21	-2,265 (-3.4%)
2025-09-02	-67,283	+4,458	+44,510	+61,164	253,334	13.5%	6.7%	-1.18	-6,298 (-10.3%)
2025-08-26	-60,985	-4,860	+42,394	+59,842	242,777	15.4%	7.6%	-1.06	-4,172 (-7.3%)
2025-08-19	-56,813	-6,937	+42,263	+60,356	241,165	23.1%	11.4%	-0.99	+512 (+0.9%)
2025-08-12	-57,325	+1,384	+37,834	+59,654	242,389	21.2%	10.5%	-1.02	-1,443 (-2.6%)
2025-08-05	-55,882	-4,959	+42,297	+61,633	235,079	23.1%	11.4%	-1.00	-14,430 (-34.8%)
2025-07-29	-41,452	-14,982	+41,894	+65,156	223,445	57.7%	31.4%	-0.69	+3 (+0.0%)
2025-07-22	-41,455	-15,641	+42,577	+66,080	218,828	57.7%	30.5%	-0.71	-1,785 (-4.5%)
2025-07-15	-39,670	-16,849	+41,715	+66,880	211,767	63.5%	34.3%	-0.68	+7,084 (+15.2%)
2025-07-08	-46,754	-12,912	+43,009	+66,038	205,957	42.3%	21.0%	-0.85	-3,801 (-8.8%)
2025-07-01	-42,953	-14,352	+41,829	+66,447	201,069	51.9%	26.7%	-0.77	+5,276 (+10.9%)
2025-06-24	-48,229	-12,101	+44,164	+64,782	204,881	36.5%	18.1%	-0.90	+2,750 (+5.4%)
2025-06-17	-50,979	-10,117	+46,251	+64,120	217,909	28.8%	14.3%	-0.98	+2,533 (+4.7%)
2025-06-10	-53,512	-7,233	+44,161	+63,327	231,537	23.1%	11.4%	-1.06	-6,348 (-13.5%)
2025-06-03	-47,164	-12,843	+46,323	+61,104	239,377	34.6%	17.1%	-0.93	-2,611 (-5.9%)
2025-05-27	-44,553	-9,463	+40,923	+62,983	235,156	36.5%	18.1%	-0.88	-2,667 (-6.4%)
2025-05-20	-41,886	-9,986	+41,332	+60,724	235,995	44.2%	21.9%	-0.83	-10,388 (-33.0%)
2025-05-13	-31,498	-20,322	+40,060	+60,702	224,743	65.4%	32.4%	-0.59	-7,517 (-31.3%)
2025-05-06	-23,981	-27,683	+40,820	+60,020	219,537	75.0%	37.1%	-0.42	+4,176 (+14.8%)
2025-04-29	-28,157	-25,879	+40,272	+57,328	210,605	69.2%	34.3%	-0.52	+11,017 (+28.1%)
2025-04-22	-39,174	-21,590	+49,222	+59,925	217,691	53.8%	26.7%	-0.78	+4,729 (+10.8%)
2025-04-15	-43,903	-20,457	+50,983	+59,736	222,397	42.3%	21.0%	-0.90	+14,300 (+24.6%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantOther ReportablesSwap DealersManaged MoneyNonreportable