Crude Oil (WTI)
Neutralenergy · Last COT: 2026-04-14
Price
83.85
-10.84 (-11.4%)
52-wk Range
69%
56.66 — 112.06
Managed Money Net
+144,243
WoW: +6,405 (+4.6%)
Producer Net
+306,360
WoW: +712 (+0.2%)
Swap Dealer Net
-644,266
WoW: -3,681 (-0.6%)
52-wk Percentile
80.8%
Based on 52 observations
105-wk Percentile
65.7%
Based on 105 observations
Z-Score
0.39
Crowd Risk
Neutral
Seasonal Ret
-0.43%
Week 16 · 21y avg
Seasonal Win%
52.4%
21 years of data
Seasonal Bias
Neutral
Swap Net: ShortNeutralMM Long Concentration: 73.4%
Price Context
Price is in the upper half of its range (69%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (66th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.
Report Date Price
94.69
-3.18 (-3.25%) WoW
52-Week Range
56.66
112.06
69%
Divergence
No DivergenceSeasonality
Current Week (16)
➖ Neutral
Avg Return
-0.43%
Win Rate
52.4%(21y)
3 Strongest Weeks
Week 19+2.79% (80%)
Week 14+2.75% (67%)
Week 8+2.65% (71%)
3 Weakest Weeks
Week 46-2.34% (25%)
Week 18-2.13% (35%)
Week 11-1.55% (52%)
Summer driving season (May–Sep) and winter heating demand create a dual-peak pattern. Refinery maintenance in spring (Mar–Apr) and fall (Oct) can temporarily tighten supply.
Macro Context
Mixed
COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (66th percentile) while macro is Mixed.
DXY (USD Index)
98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓
A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-US buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for energy prices.
Brent-WTI Spread
6.53+1.83 (+38.9%)↑
A widening Brent-WTI spread signals tighter global supply relative to US supply. A narrowing spread suggests US oversupply or weakening global demand.
VIX
17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓
High volatility typically accompanies risk-off moves that weigh on industrial energy demand. Stable low volatility supports steady consumption.
US 10Y Yield
4.25-0.06 (-1.5%)↓
Rising yields reflect growth expectations that support energy demand. Falling yields may signal economic slowdown concerns.
Disaggregated Signals
MM Spread Ratio
17.2%
High
Producer 52-wk %ile
90.4%
Obs: 52
Producer 105-wk %ile
94.3%
Obs: 105
Conviction & Spread Analysis
Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 1.9%WoW: -2,485 (-0.5%)
Change Decomposition
Latest: Both (Strong)Retail vs Smart Money
Retail Z-Score: 1.55Concentration Risk
Risk spreading — position becoming less fragileAvg Contracts / Long Trader
2,692
Avg Contracts / Short Trader
2,925
Long/Short Concentration Ratio
0.92
Long Conc. 105-wk %ile
60.0%
Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks
Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)
NeutralRaw Z-Score
0.39
Recent-cycle context
Raw Net Percentile
65.7%
105-wk rolling
Long % OI Percentile
41.0%
Cross-cycle view
Short % OI Percentile
44.8%
Cross-cycle view
Last 52 Weeks
| Date | MM Net | Producer Net | Swap Net | Open Interest | 52-wk %ile | 105-wk %ile | Z-Score | WoW Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | +144,243 | +306,360 | -644,266 | 3,085,567 | 80.8% | 65.7% | 0.39 | +6,405 (+4.6%) |
| 2026-04-07 | +137,838 | +305,648 | -640,585 | 3,128,586 | 76.9% | 60.0% | 0.28 | +7,121 (+5.4%) |
| 2026-03-31 | +130,717 | +294,969 | -645,282 | 3,039,583 | 75.0% | 56.2% | 0.17 | -18,268 (-12.3%) |
| 2026-03-24 | +148,985 | +279,093 | -642,971 | 2,952,171 | 88.5% | 66.7% | 0.40 | +1,124 (+0.8%) |
| 2026-03-17 | +147,861 | +260,378 | -621,327 | 3,011,766 | 86.5% | 64.8% | 0.38 | +11,442 (+8.4%) |
| 2026-03-10 | +136,419 | +229,012 | -585,216 | 3,138,821 | 80.8% | 57.1% | 0.22 | +27,998 (+25.8%) |
| 2026-03-03 | +108,421 | +192,393 | -494,248 | 2,889,103 | 73.1% | 42.9% | -0.16 | +10,234 (+10.4%) |
| 2026-02-24 | +98,187 | +142,788 | -432,243 | 2,724,561 | 71.2% | 37.1% | -0.30 | +16,968 (+20.9%) |
| 2026-02-17 | +81,219 | +167,899 | -412,774 | 2,577,058 | 57.7% | 28.6% | -0.53 | -5,095 (-5.9%) |
| 2026-02-10 | +86,314 | +174,057 | -397,483 | 2,680,183 | 59.6% | 29.5% | -0.47 | +5,937 (+7.4%) |
| 2026-02-03 | +80,377 | +177,131 | -395,232 | 2,688,721 | 55.8% | 27.6% | -0.55 | +17,386 (+27.6%) |
| 2026-01-27 | +62,991 | +194,956 | -377,820 | 2,585,126 | 48.1% | 23.8% | -0.79 | +9,557 (+17.9%) |
| 2026-01-20 | +53,434 | +206,409 | -371,983 | 2,438,338 | 46.2% | 22.9% | -0.93 | +10,927 (+25.7%) |
| 2026-01-13 | +42,507 | +230,587 | -362,574 | 2,533,712 | 42.3% | 21.0% | -1.08 | +19,927 (+88.3%) |
| 2026-01-06 | +22,580 | +226,494 | -350,457 | 2,382,115 | 28.8% | 14.3% | -1.36 | +2,869 (+14.6%) |
| 2025-12-30 | +19,711 | +238,087 | -360,475 | 2,295,914 | 26.9% | 13.3% | -1.42 | +2,045 (+11.6%) |
| 2025-12-23 | +17,666 | +248,506 | -368,077 | 2,267,166 | 23.1% | 11.4% | -1.47 | +6,575 (+59.3%) |
| 2025-12-16 | +11,091 | +250,509 | -379,424 | 2,322,931 | 19.2% | 9.5% | -1.59 | +346 (+3.2%) |
| 2025-12-09 | +10,745 | +262,677 | -393,469 | 2,308,356 | 17.3% | 8.6% | -1.62 | +40,170 (+136.5%) |
| 2025-12-02 | -29,425 | +285,020 | -395,886 | 2,335,339 | 3.8% | 1.9% | -2.22 | -870 (-3.0%) |
| 2025-11-25 | -28,555 | +283,533 | -402,763 | 2,314,741 | 3.8% | 1.9% | -2.27 | -25,234 (-759.8%) |
| 2025-11-18 | -3,321 | +286,278 | -413,500 | 2,242,146 | 7.7% | 3.8% | -1.98 | -6,499 (-204.5%) |
| 2025-11-10 | +3,178 | +277,157 | -401,957 | 2,390,711 | 7.7% | 3.8% | -1.94 | -19,473 (-86.0%) |
| 2025-11-04 | +22,651 | +281,430 | -415,516 | 2,409,632 | 13.5% | 6.7% | -1.69 | +18,061 (+393.5%) |
| 2025-10-28 | +4,590 | +302,084 | -431,295 | 2,375,562 | 7.7% | 3.8% | -2.02 | +34,585 (+115.3%) |
| 2025-10-21 | -29,995 | +313,767 | -423,029 | 2,468,711 | 1.9% | 1.0% | -2.62 | -4,910 (-19.6%) |
| 2025-10-14 | -25,085 | +306,968 | -431,340 | 2,595,395 | 1.9% | 1.0% | -2.65 | -9,414 (-60.1%) |
| 2025-10-07 | -15,671 | +301,624 | -445,683 | 2,492,297 | 1.9% | 1.0% | -2.57 | -34,057 (-185.2%) |
| 2025-09-30 | +18,386 | +285,337 | -459,406 | 2,469,965 | 3.8% | 1.9% | -2.06 | -11,024 (-37.5%) |
| 2025-09-23 | +29,410 | +293,080 | -455,997 | 2,358,166 | 7.7% | 3.8% | -1.90 | -9,494 (-24.4%) |
| 2025-09-16 | +38,904 | +304,943 | -467,121 | 2,452,877 | 9.6% | 4.8% | -1.77 | +26,247 (+207.4%) |
| 2025-09-09 | +12,657 | +312,262 | -460,271 | 2,439,460 | 1.9% | 1.0% | -2.21 | -14,630 (-53.6%) |
| 2025-09-02 | +27,287 | +308,634 | -480,681 | 2,462,489 | 3.8% | 1.9% | -2.04 | +3,062 (+12.6%) |
| 2025-08-26 | +24,225 | +306,856 | -486,257 | 2,385,071 | 1.9% | 1.0% | -2.16 | -5,461 (-18.4%) |
| 2025-08-19 | +29,686 | +305,293 | -493,981 | 2,399,868 | 1.9% | 1.0% | -2.14 | -19,578 (-39.7%) |
| 2025-08-12 | +49,264 | +301,042 | -500,938 | 2,570,247 | 1.9% | 1.0% | -1.88 | -29,562 (-37.5%) |
| 2025-08-05 | +78,826 | +288,700 | -517,243 | 2,598,545 | 5.8% | 3.8% | -1.41 | -9,014 (-10.3%) |
| 2025-07-29 | +87,840 | +289,579 | -520,543 | 2,592,528 | 7.7% | 5.7% | -1.29 | +1,752 (+2.0%) |
| 2025-07-22 | +86,088 | +284,700 | -519,461 | 2,529,772 | 5.8% | 3.8% | -1.34 | -10,018 (-10.4%) |
| 2025-07-15 | +96,106 | +304,050 | -543,220 | 2,698,109 | 11.5% | 10.5% | -1.19 | -52,000 (-35.1%) |
| 2025-07-08 | +148,106 | +272,357 | -554,076 | 2,628,528 | 59.6% | 46.7% | -0.27 | -29,994 (-16.8%) |
| 2025-07-01 | +178,100 | +258,950 | -570,915 | 2,621,571 | 71.2% | 61.9% | 0.27 | +13,541 (+8.2%) |
| 2025-06-24 | +164,559 | +264,425 | -578,718 | 2,625,515 | 67.3% | 56.2% | 0.05 | -11,697 (-6.6%) |
| 2025-06-17 | +176,256 | +264,248 | -554,657 | 2,607,787 | 67.3% | 61.9% | 0.26 | -2,878 (-1.6%) |
| 2025-06-10 | +179,134 | +248,300 | -487,958 | 2,575,353 | 69.2% | 64.8% | 0.32 | +16,056 (+9.8%) |
| 2025-06-03 | +163,078 | +262,832 | -474,979 | 2,552,248 | 65.4% | 58.1% | 0.05 | +42,496 (+35.2%) |
| 2025-05-27 | +120,582 | +279,990 | -481,742 | 2,472,198 | 32.7% | 32.4% | -0.67 | -8,284 (-6.4%) |
| 2025-05-20 | +128,866 | +263,958 | -480,990 | 2,377,361 | 38.5% | 39.0% | -0.54 | -10,422 (-7.5%) |
| 2025-05-13 | +139,288 | +260,161 | -479,552 | 2,582,459 | 44.2% | 44.8% | -0.36 | -4,650 (-3.2%) |
| 2025-05-06 | +143,938 | +263,878 | -479,991 | 2,651,002 | 50.0% | 47.6% | -0.28 | -10,094 (-6.6%) |
| 2025-04-29 | +154,032 | +274,664 | -497,895 | 2,538,802 | 57.7% | 52.4% | -0.11 | +6,701 (+4.5%) |
| 2025-04-22 | +147,331 | +291,579 | -496,896 | 2,453,800 | 53.8% | 48.6% | -0.23 | +36,132 (+32.5%) |
Who Is Holding
Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts
Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.
Swap DealersProducer / MerchantOther ReportablesManaged MoneyNonreportable