Crude Oil (WTI)

Neutral

energy · Last COT: 2026-10-13

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Crude Oil (WTI) futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics Follow the Oil Shock Tracker Read the oil intervention history

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is within its recent range (44th percentile).

Crowd risk

Neutral

Gross long exposure is not at the dashboard's concentration threshold.

Price context

Price sits 75% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Neutral seasonal bias for week 43. Macro is supportive.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

99.06

As of 2026-10-22 · +1.09 (+1.1%)

52-wk Range

75%

56.66 — 112.06

Managed Money Net

+102,765

WoW: -1,726 (-1.7%)

Producer Net

+364,729

WoW: +18,391 (+5.3%)

Swap Dealer Net

-586,911

WoW: -23,930 (-4.3%)

52-wk Percentile

50.0%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

43.8%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

0.05

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

+0.26%

Week 43 · 20y avg

Seasonal Win%

45.0%

20 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: ShortNeutralMM Long Concentration: 67.8%

Price Context

Price is mid-range (75%) with neutral positioning (44th percentile) — no strong signal from the price-COT relationship.

COT Baseline Price

97.97

As of 2026-10-12

+6.48 (+7.08%) WoW

52-Week Range

56.66

112.06

75%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (43)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.26%

Win Rate

45.0%(20y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 14+2.75% (67%)

Week 8+2.65% (71%)

Week 9+2.46% (62%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 46-2.34% (25%)

Week 31-1.66% (43%)

Week 18-1.57% (38%)

Summer driving season (May–Sep) and winter heating demand create a dual-peak pattern. Refinery maintenance in spring (Mar–Apr) and fall (Oct) can temporarily tighten supply.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (44th percentile) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

101.69-0.31 (-0.3%)↓

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-US buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for energy prices.

Brent-WTI Spread

12.07+4.12 (+51.8%)↑

A widening Brent-WTI spread signals tighter global supply relative to US supply. A narrowing spread suggests US oversupply or weakening global demand.

VIX

16.68+0.22 (+1.3%)↑

High volatility typically accompanies risk-off moves that weigh on industrial energy demand. Stable low volatility supports steady consumption.

US 10Y Yield

5.15+0.06 (+1.1%)↑

Rising yields reflect growth expectations that support energy demand. Falling yields may signal economic slowdown concerns.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-10-13	+102,765	+364,729	-586,911	2,575,891	50.0%	43.8%	0.05	-1,726 (-1.7%)
2026-10-06	+104,491	+346,338	-562,981	2,533,937	55.8%	48.6%	0.07	-18,425 (-15.0%)
2026-09-29	+122,916	+330,916	-557,624	2,494,485	69.2%	61.9%	0.38	-19,672 (-13.8%)
2026-09-22	+142,588	+315,753	-562,740	2,432,733	92.3%	79.0%	0.70	+5,820 (+4.3%)
2026-09-15	+136,768	+320,588	-550,744	2,725,013	86.5%	72.4%	0.60	-2,571 (-1.8%)
2026-09-08	+139,339	+320,886	-557,311	2,605,602	92.3%	77.1%	0.65	+19,720 (+16.5%)
2026-09-01	+119,619	+322,279	-548,099	2,556,627	75.0%	60.0%	0.32	+15,046 (+14.4%)
2026-08-25	+104,573	+319,647	-539,826	2,482,663	67.3%	48.6%	0.06	+538 (+0.5%)
2026-08-18	+104,035	+330,587	-544,971	2,448,684	67.3%	47.6%	0.04	+320 (+0.3%)
2026-08-11	+103,715	+353,769	-558,940	2,608,236	67.3%	44.8%	0.02	+2,665 (+2.6%)
2026-08-04	+101,050	+347,363	-573,926	2,596,877	67.3%	42.9%	-0.04	-7,257 (-6.7%)
2026-07-28	+108,307	+363,751	-592,312	2,534,800	69.2%	47.6%	0.06	+21,402 (+24.6%)
2026-07-21	+86,905	+396,981	-582,692	2,522,204	61.5%	33.3%	-0.29	+522 (+0.6%)
2026-07-14	+86,383	+411,516	-574,498	2,620,973	61.5%	32.4%	-0.32	+11,704 (+15.7%)
2026-07-07	+74,679	+404,241	-585,583	2,560,340	50.0%	26.7%	-0.51	-19,034 (-20.3%)
2026-06-30	+93,713	+384,313	-604,225	2,568,532	61.5%	33.3%	-0.25	-6,582 (-6.6%)
2026-06-23	+100,295	+390,925	-623,932	2,533,875	65.4%	38.1%	-0.17	-17,590 (-14.9%)
2026-06-16	+117,885	+391,221	-638,388	2,612,673	69.2%	49.5%	0.07	-5,322 (-4.3%)
2026-06-09	+123,207	+379,387	-637,467	2,754,041	69.2%	51.4%	0.14	-1,052 (-0.8%)
2026-06-02	+124,259	+371,840	-644,423	2,761,111	69.2%	51.4%	0.15	+8,497 (+7.3%)
2026-05-26	+115,762	+380,520	-660,338	2,742,161	67.3%	47.1%	0.02	-23,012 (-16.6%)
2026-05-19	+138,774	+386,448	-672,746	2,778,530	80.8%	61.9%	0.33	+9,191 (+7.1%)
2026-05-12	+129,583	+369,858	-663,350	3,032,488	71.2%	54.3%	0.20	-2,373 (-1.8%)
2026-05-05	+131,956	+348,699	-660,039	3,009,504	73.1%	57.1%	0.24	-3,545 (-2.6%)
2026-04-28	+135,501	+331,154	-649,298	2,893,767	73.1%	58.1%	0.28	-7,900 (-5.5%)
2026-04-21	+143,401	+323,646	-649,171	2,804,594	78.8%	63.8%	0.39	-842 (-0.6%)
2026-04-14	+144,243	+306,360	-644,266	3,085,567	80.8%	65.7%	0.39	+6,405 (+4.6%)
2026-04-07	+137,838	+305,648	-640,585	3,128,586	76.9%	60.0%	0.28	+7,121 (+5.4%)
2026-03-31	+130,717	+294,969	-645,282	3,039,583	75.0%	56.2%	0.17	-18,268 (-12.3%)
2026-03-24	+148,985	+279,093	-642,971	2,952,171	88.5%	66.7%	0.40	+1,124 (+0.8%)
2026-03-17	+147,861	+260,378	-621,327	3,011,766	86.5%	64.8%	0.38	+11,442 (+8.4%)
2026-03-10	+136,419	+229,012	-585,216	3,138,821	80.8%	57.1%	0.22	+27,998 (+25.8%)
2026-03-03	+108,421	+192,393	-494,248	2,889,103	73.1%	42.9%	-0.16	+10,234 (+10.4%)
2026-02-24	+98,187	+142,788	-432,243	2,724,561	71.2%	37.1%	-0.30	+16,968 (+20.9%)
2026-02-17	+81,219	+167,899	-412,774	2,577,058	57.7%	28.6%	-0.53	-5,095 (-5.9%)
2026-02-10	+86,314	+174,057	-397,483	2,680,183	59.6%	29.5%	-0.47	+5,937 (+7.4%)
2026-02-03	+80,377	+177,131	-395,232	2,688,721	55.8%	27.6%	-0.55	+17,386 (+27.6%)
2026-01-27	+62,991	+194,956	-377,820	2,585,126	48.1%	23.8%	-0.79	+9,557 (+17.9%)
2026-01-20	+53,434	+206,409	-371,983	2,438,338	46.2%	22.9%	-0.93	+10,927 (+25.7%)
2026-01-13	+42,507	+230,587	-362,574	2,533,712	42.3%	21.0%	-1.08	+19,927 (+88.3%)
2026-01-06	+22,580	+226,494	-350,457	2,382,115	28.8%	14.3%	-1.36	+2,869 (+14.6%)
2025-12-30	+19,711	+238,087	-360,475	2,295,914	26.9%	13.3%	-1.42	+2,045 (+11.6%)
2025-12-23	+17,666	+248,506	-368,077	2,267,166	23.1%	11.4%	-1.47	+6,575 (+59.3%)
2025-12-16	+11,091	+250,509	-379,424	2,322,931	19.2%	9.5%	-1.59	+346 (+3.2%)
2025-12-09	+10,745	+262,677	-393,469	2,308,356	17.3%	8.6%	-1.62	+40,170 (+136.5%)
2025-12-02	-29,425	+285,020	-395,886	2,335,339	3.8%	1.9%	-2.22	-870 (-3.0%)
2025-11-25	-28,555	+283,533	-402,763	2,314,741	3.8%	1.9%	-2.27	-25,234 (-759.8%)
2025-11-18	-3,321	+286,278	-413,500	2,242,146	7.7%	3.8%	-1.98	-6,499 (-204.5%)
2025-11-10	+3,178	+277,157	-401,957	2,390,711	7.7%	3.8%	-1.94	-19,473 (-86.0%)
2025-11-04	+22,651	+281,430	-415,516	2,409,632	13.5%	6.7%	-1.69	+18,061 (+393.5%)
2025-10-28	+4,590	+302,084	-431,295	2,375,562	7.7%	3.8%	-2.02	+34,585 (+115.3%)
2025-10-21	-29,995	+313,767	-423,029	2,468,711	1.9%	1.0%	-2.62	-4,910 (-19.6%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersProducer / MerchantManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportable