Crude Oil (WTI)

Neutral

energy · Last COT: 2026-06-09

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Price

84.88

-2.83 (-3.2%)

52-wk Range

56%

56.66 — 112.06

Managed Money Net

+123,207

WoW: -1,052 (-0.8%)

Producer Net

+379,387

WoW: +7,547 (+2.0%)

Swap Dealer Net

-637,467

WoW: +6,956 (+1.1%)

52-wk Percentile

69.2%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

51.4%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

0.14

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

-0.03%

Week 24 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

47.6%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: ShortNeutralMM Long Concentration: 70.0%

Price Context

Price is in the upper half of its range (56%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (51th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

Report Date Price

87.71

-5.33 (-5.73%) WoW

52-Week Range

56.66

112.06

56%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (24)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

-0.03%

Win Rate

47.6%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 14+2.75% (67%)

Week 8+2.65% (71%)

Week 9+2.46% (62%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 46-2.34% (25%)

Week 18-1.57% (38%)

Week 11-1.55% (52%)

Summer driving season (May–Sep) and winter heating demand create a dual-peak pattern. Refinery maintenance in spring (Mar–Apr) and fall (Oct) can temporarily tighten supply.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (51th percentile) while macro is Mixed.

DXY (USD Index)

99.75-0.11 (-0.1%)↓

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-US buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for energy prices.

Brent-WTI Spread

2.45-0.22 (-8.2%)↓

A widening Brent-WTI spread signals tighter global supply relative to US supply. A narrowing spread suggests US oversupply or weakening global demand.

VIX

17.68-1.76 (-9.1%)↓

High volatility typically accompanies risk-off moves that weigh on industrial energy demand. Stable low volatility supports steady consumption.

US 10Y Yield

4.49+0.02 (+0.5%)↑

Rising yields reflect growth expectations that support energy demand. Falling yields may signal economic slowdown concerns.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

14.8%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

96.2%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

98.1%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 1.0%WoW: -9,485 (-2.3%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 1.84

Concentration Risk

Concentration building — increasing blow-up risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

3,261

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

2,707

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

1.20

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

97.1%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

0.14

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

51.4%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

53.3%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

63.8%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-06-09	+123,207	+379,387	-637,467	2,754,041	69.2%	51.4%	0.14	-1,052 (-0.8%)
2026-06-02	+124,259	+371,840	-644,423	2,761,111	69.2%	51.4%	0.15	+8,497 (+7.3%)
2026-05-26	+115,762	+380,520	-660,338	2,742,161	67.3%	47.1%	0.02	-23,012 (-16.6%)
2026-05-19	+138,774	+386,448	-672,746	2,778,530	80.8%	61.9%	0.33	+9,191 (+7.1%)
2026-05-12	+129,583	+369,858	-663,350	3,032,488	71.2%	54.3%	0.20	-2,373 (-1.8%)
2026-05-05	+131,956	+348,699	-660,039	3,009,504	73.1%	57.1%	0.24	-3,545 (-2.6%)
2026-04-28	+135,501	+331,154	-649,298	2,893,767	73.1%	58.1%	0.28	-7,900 (-5.5%)
2026-04-21	+143,401	+323,646	-649,171	2,804,594	78.8%	63.8%	0.39	-842 (-0.6%)
2026-04-14	+144,243	+306,360	-644,266	3,085,567	80.8%	65.7%	0.39	+6,405 (+4.6%)
2026-04-07	+137,838	+305,648	-640,585	3,128,586	76.9%	60.0%	0.28	+7,121 (+5.4%)
2026-03-31	+130,717	+294,969	-645,282	3,039,583	75.0%	56.2%	0.17	-18,268 (-12.3%)
2026-03-24	+148,985	+279,093	-642,971	2,952,171	88.5%	66.7%	0.40	+1,124 (+0.8%)
2026-03-17	+147,861	+260,378	-621,327	3,011,766	86.5%	64.8%	0.38	+11,442 (+8.4%)
2026-03-10	+136,419	+229,012	-585,216	3,138,821	80.8%	57.1%	0.22	+27,998 (+25.8%)
2026-03-03	+108,421	+192,393	-494,248	2,889,103	73.1%	42.9%	-0.16	+10,234 (+10.4%)
2026-02-24	+98,187	+142,788	-432,243	2,724,561	71.2%	37.1%	-0.30	+16,968 (+20.9%)
2026-02-17	+81,219	+167,899	-412,774	2,577,058	57.7%	28.6%	-0.53	-5,095 (-5.9%)
2026-02-10	+86,314	+174,057	-397,483	2,680,183	59.6%	29.5%	-0.47	+5,937 (+7.4%)
2026-02-03	+80,377	+177,131	-395,232	2,688,721	55.8%	27.6%	-0.55	+17,386 (+27.6%)
2026-01-27	+62,991	+194,956	-377,820	2,585,126	48.1%	23.8%	-0.79	+9,557 (+17.9%)
2026-01-20	+53,434	+206,409	-371,983	2,438,338	46.2%	22.9%	-0.93	+10,927 (+25.7%)
2026-01-13	+42,507	+230,587	-362,574	2,533,712	42.3%	21.0%	-1.08	+19,927 (+88.3%)
2026-01-06	+22,580	+226,494	-350,457	2,382,115	28.8%	14.3%	-1.36	+2,869 (+14.6%)
2025-12-30	+19,711	+238,087	-360,475	2,295,914	26.9%	13.3%	-1.42	+2,045 (+11.6%)
2025-12-23	+17,666	+248,506	-368,077	2,267,166	23.1%	11.4%	-1.47	+6,575 (+59.3%)
2025-12-16	+11,091	+250,509	-379,424	2,322,931	19.2%	9.5%	-1.59	+346 (+3.2%)
2025-12-09	+10,745	+262,677	-393,469	2,308,356	17.3%	8.6%	-1.62	+40,170 (+136.5%)
2025-12-02	-29,425	+285,020	-395,886	2,335,339	3.8%	1.9%	-2.22	-870 (-3.0%)
2025-11-25	-28,555	+283,533	-402,763	2,314,741	3.8%	1.9%	-2.27	-25,234 (-759.8%)
2025-11-18	-3,321	+286,278	-413,500	2,242,146	7.7%	3.8%	-1.98	-6,499 (-204.5%)
2025-11-10	+3,178	+277,157	-401,957	2,390,711	7.7%	3.8%	-1.94	-19,473 (-86.0%)
2025-11-04	+22,651	+281,430	-415,516	2,409,632	13.5%	6.7%	-1.69	+18,061 (+393.5%)
2025-10-28	+4,590	+302,084	-431,295	2,375,562	7.7%	3.8%	-2.02	+34,585 (+115.3%)
2025-10-21	-29,995	+313,767	-423,029	2,468,711	1.9%	1.0%	-2.62	-4,910 (-19.6%)
2025-10-14	-25,085	+306,968	-431,340	2,595,395	1.9%	1.0%	-2.65	-9,414 (-60.1%)
2025-10-07	-15,671	+301,624	-445,683	2,492,297	1.9%	1.0%	-2.57	-34,057 (-185.2%)
2025-09-30	+18,386	+285,337	-459,406	2,469,965	3.8%	1.9%	-2.06	-11,024 (-37.5%)
2025-09-23	+29,410	+293,080	-455,997	2,358,166	7.7%	3.8%	-1.90	-9,494 (-24.4%)
2025-09-16	+38,904	+304,943	-467,121	2,452,877	9.6%	4.8%	-1.77	+26,247 (+207.4%)
2025-09-09	+12,657	+312,262	-460,271	2,439,460	1.9%	1.0%	-2.21	-14,630 (-53.6%)
2025-09-02	+27,287	+308,634	-480,681	2,462,489	3.8%	1.9%	-2.04	+3,062 (+12.6%)
2025-08-26	+24,225	+306,856	-486,257	2,385,071	1.9%	1.0%	-2.16	-5,461 (-18.4%)
2025-08-19	+29,686	+305,293	-493,981	2,399,868	1.9%	1.0%	-2.14	-19,578 (-39.7%)
2025-08-12	+49,264	+301,042	-500,938	2,570,247	1.9%	1.0%	-1.88	-29,562 (-37.5%)
2025-08-05	+78,826	+288,700	-517,243	2,598,545	5.8%	3.8%	-1.41	-9,014 (-10.3%)
2025-07-29	+87,840	+289,579	-520,543	2,592,528	7.7%	5.7%	-1.29	+1,752 (+2.0%)
2025-07-22	+86,088	+284,700	-519,461	2,529,772	5.8%	3.8%	-1.34	-10,018 (-10.4%)
2025-07-15	+96,106	+304,050	-543,220	2,698,109	11.5%	10.5%	-1.19	-52,000 (-35.1%)
2025-07-08	+148,106	+272,357	-554,076	2,628,528	59.6%	46.7%	-0.27	-29,994 (-16.8%)
2025-07-01	+178,100	+258,950	-570,915	2,621,571	71.2%	61.9%	0.27	+13,541 (+8.2%)
2025-06-24	+164,559	+264,425	-578,718	2,625,515	67.3%	56.2%	0.05	-11,697 (-6.6%)
2025-06-17	+176,256	+264,248	-554,657	2,607,787	67.3%	61.9%	0.26	-2,878 (-1.6%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersProducer / MerchantManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportable