Feeder Cattle
Liquidation Risklivestock · Last COT: 2026-04-14
Price
371.33
-1.75 (-0.5%)
52-wk Range
97%
290.52 — 375.50
Managed Money Net
+21,951
WoW: +836 (+4.0%)
Producer Net
-7,373
WoW: -326 (-4.6%)
Swap Dealer Net
+4,084
WoW: +172 (+4.4%)
CIT Net
+12,334
WoW: +59 (+0.5%)
52-wk Percentile
44.2%
Based on 52 observations
105-wk Percentile
59.0%
Based on 105 observations
Z-Score
0.33
Crowd Risk
Liquidation Risk
Seasonal Ret
-0.26%
Week 16 · 21y avg
Seasonal Win%
52.4%
21 years of data
Seasonal Bias
Neutral
Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 81.5%
Price Context
Price is in the upper half of its range (97%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (59th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.
Report Date Price
373.08
+0.5500 (+0.15%) WoW
52-Week Range
290.52
375.50
97%
Divergence
No DivergenceSeasonality
Current Week (16)
➖ Neutral
Avg Return
-0.26%
Win Rate
52.4%(21y)
3 Strongest Weeks
Week 21+4.45% (80%)
Week 17+1.17% (60%)
Week 26+1.13% (80%)
3 Weakest Weeks
Week 47-1.21% (45%)
Week 45-1.01% (30%)
Week 18-0.87% (25%)
Spring pasture season (Mar–May) boosts demand as ranchers restock. Fall weaning (Sep–Nov) increases supply as calves hit the market, typically pressuring prices.
Macro Context
Supportive
COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (59th percentile) while macro is Supportive.
Corn Price
448.75+0.25 (+0.1%)↑
Rising corn prices increase feed costs for cattle and hog producers, squeezing margins and potentially reducing supply long-term.
Feeder/Live Spread
121.38-1.40 (-1.1%)↓
A widening feeder-to-live cattle spread signals improving feedlot margins. A narrowing spread suggests margin pressure.
DXY (USD Index)
98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓
A stronger dollar makes US meat exports less competitive globally. A weaker dollar supports export demand for livestock products.
VIX
17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓
Elevated volatility can disrupt supply chains and consumer spending patterns, creating uncertainty for livestock markets.
Disaggregated Signals
MM Spread Ratio
12.1%
Normal
Producer 52-wk %ile
59.6%
Obs: 52
Producer 105-wk %ile
31.4%
Obs: 105
Conviction & Spread Analysis
Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 15.2%WoW: -1,925 (-18.5%)
Change Decomposition
Latest: Both (Strong)Retail vs Smart Money
Retail Z-Score: -0.17Concentration Risk
Risk spreading — position becoming less fragileAvg Contracts / Long Trader
458
Avg Contracts / Short Trader
461
Long/Short Concentration Ratio
0.99
Long Conc. 105-wk %ile
35.2%
Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks
Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)
NeutralRaw Z-Score
0.33
Recent-cycle context
Raw Net Percentile
59.0%
105-wk rolling
Long % OI Percentile
71.4%
Cross-cycle view
Short % OI Percentile
51.4%
Cross-cycle view
Last 52 Weeks
| Date | MM Net | Producer Net | Swap Net | CIT Net | Open Interest | 52-wk %ile | 105-wk %ile | Z-Score | WoW Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | +21,951 | -7,373 | +4,084 | +12,334 | 69,930 | 44.2% | 59.0% | 0.33 | +836 (+4.0%) |
| 2026-04-07 | +21,115 | -7,047 | +3,912 | +12,275 | 71,518 | 42.3% | 59.0% | 0.27 | +268 (+1.3%) |
| 2026-03-31 | +20,847 | -6,999 | +3,516 | +11,728 | 69,682 | 40.4% | 59.0% | 0.25 | +1,285 (+6.6%) |
| 2026-03-24 | +19,562 | -6,732 | +4,261 | +11,729 | 69,976 | 36.5% | 57.1% | 0.15 | +188 (+1.0%) |
| 2026-03-17 | +19,374 | -6,817 | +4,620 | +11,584 | 72,644 | 34.6% | 57.1% | 0.14 | +662 (+3.5%) |
| 2026-03-10 | +18,712 | -6,535 | +4,296 | +11,662 | 72,436 | 26.9% | 52.4% | 0.09 | -229 (-1.2%) |
| 2026-03-03 | +18,941 | -5,554 | +4,117 | +11,844 | 77,199 | 30.8% | 56.2% | 0.12 | -693 (-3.5%) |
| 2026-02-24 | +19,634 | -7,626 | +4,144 | +11,802 | 77,915 | 30.8% | 58.1% | 0.19 | +878 (+4.7%) |
| 2026-02-17 | +18,756 | -7,702 | +4,093 | +12,292 | 75,376 | 26.9% | 56.2% | 0.13 | +797 (+4.4%) |
| 2026-02-10 | +17,959 | -7,686 | +4,188 | +12,351 | 74,279 | 25.0% | 54.3% | 0.07 | +34 (+0.2%) |
| 2026-02-03 | +17,925 | -8,662 | +4,396 | +13,383 | 79,277 | 23.1% | 54.3% | 0.08 | -940 (-5.0%) |
| 2026-01-27 | +18,865 | -7,347 | +4,719 | +13,719 | 78,781 | 23.1% | 57.1% | 0.17 | +1,460 (+8.4%) |
| 2026-01-20 | +17,405 | -6,923 | +4,571 | +13,987 | 77,696 | 20.2% | 53.8% | 0.06 | +357 (+2.1%) |
| 2026-01-13 | +17,048 | -5,934 | +4,908 | +14,007 | 75,124 | 15.4% | 52.4% | 0.05 | -343 (-2.0%) |
| 2026-01-06 | +17,391 | -6,672 | +4,473 | +13,432 | 72,392 | 15.4% | 53.3% | 0.09 | +1,562 (+9.9%) |
| 2025-12-30 | +15,829 | -5,705 | +5,052 | +13,400 | 68,748 | 11.5% | 52.4% | -0.02 | +631 (+4.2%) |
| 2025-12-23 | +15,198 | -5,426 | +5,041 | +13,250 | 67,353 | 7.7% | 50.5% | -0.06 | +672 (+4.6%) |
| 2025-12-16 | +14,526 | -5,012 | +4,965 | +12,938 | 66,071 | 5.8% | 50.5% | -0.10 | +159 (+1.1%) |
| 2025-12-09 | +14,367 | -5,750 | +4,844 | +12,676 | 65,082 | 3.8% | 50.5% | -0.10 | +898 (+6.7%) |
| 2025-12-02 | +13,469 | -6,490 | +4,816 | +12,386 | 63,345 | 1.9% | 50.5% | -0.15 | -2,211 (-14.1%) |
| 2025-11-25 | +15,680 | -7,045 | +4,412 | +13,103 | 65,717 | 3.8% | 52.4% | 0.03 | -1,316 (-7.7%) |
| 2025-11-18 | +16,996 | -6,680 | +3,948 | +12,928 | 72,198 | 5.8% | 53.3% | 0.14 | -409 (-2.3%) |
| 2025-11-04 | +17,405 | -5,971 | +3,077 | +12,599 | 69,396 | 7.7% | 54.3% | 0.18 | -4,979 (-22.2%) |
| 2025-10-28 | +22,384 | -7,472 | +3,066 | +12,816 | 75,459 | 19.2% | 60.0% | 0.56 | -3,955 (-15.0%) |
| 2025-10-21 | +26,339 | -10,734 | +2,264 | +13,963 | 83,098 | 32.7% | 66.7% | 0.87 | -442 (-1.7%) |
| 2025-10-14 | +26,781 | -11,907 | +2,335 | +14,159 | 83,707 | 39.4% | 70.0% | 0.92 | +387 (+1.5%) |
| 2025-10-07 | +26,394 | -10,261 | +2,345 | +14,347 | 83,974 | 36.5% | 68.6% | 0.91 | +2,971 (+12.7%) |
| 2025-09-30 | +23,423 | -9,201 | +2,749 | +14,491 | 81,077 | 26.9% | 63.8% | 0.70 | -450 (-1.9%) |
| 2025-09-23 | +23,873 | -9,347 | +2,110 | +13,620 | 81,180 | 28.8% | 64.8% | 0.74 | -1,539 (-6.1%) |
| 2025-09-16 | +25,412 | -9,743 | +1,791 | +12,833 | 82,825 | 36.5% | 68.6% | 0.87 | +102 (+0.4%) |
| 2025-09-09 | +25,310 | -11,218 | +2,937 | +13,096 | 85,063 | 36.5% | 68.6% | 0.87 | -2,334 (-8.4%) |
| 2025-09-02 | +27,644 | -13,643 | +2,729 | +13,174 | 87,329 | 53.8% | 77.1% | 1.06 | -2,782 (-9.1%) |
| 2025-08-26 | +30,426 | -15,209 | +1,577 | +12,489 | 89,626 | 67.3% | 83.8% | 1.29 | -2,421 (-7.4%) |
| 2025-08-19 | +32,847 | -13,957 | +1,735 | +12,671 | 90,606 | 80.8% | 90.5% | 1.50 | -173 (-0.5%) |
| 2025-08-12 | +33,020 | -13,083 | +1,824 | +12,022 | 91,822 | 82.7% | 91.4% | 1.54 | -2,959 (-8.2%) |
| 2025-08-05 | +35,979 | -13,684 | +1,569 | +11,529 | 96,766 | 94.2% | 97.1% | 1.81 | +1,939 (+5.7%) |
| 2025-07-29 | +34,040 | -13,215 | +1,543 | +11,487 | 94,930 | 88.5% | 94.3% | 1.70 | -2,374 (-6.5%) |
| 2025-07-22 | +36,414 | -12,281 | +886 | +10,855 | 96,777 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1.93 | +148 (+0.4%) |
| 2025-07-15 | +36,266 | -11,314 | +716 | +10,818 | 95,929 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 1.97 | +70 (+0.2%) |
| 2025-07-08 | +36,196 | -10,694 | -27 | +10,160 | 94,897 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2.02 | +3,524 (+10.8%) |
| 2025-07-01 | +32,672 | -9,320 | -93 | +9,959 | 90,942 | 90.4% | 95.2% | 1.77 | -1,597 (-4.7%) |
| 2025-06-24 | +34,269 | -9,790 | +235 | +10,108 | 87,430 | 96.2% | 98.1% | 1.95 | -324 (-0.9%) |
| 2025-06-17 | +34,593 | -10,374 | +512 | +10,595 | 86,434 | 98.1% | 99.0% | 2.03 | -31 (-0.1%) |
| 2025-06-10 | +34,624 | -10,616 | +364 | +10,270 | 83,978 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2.08 | +985 (+2.9%) |
| 2025-06-03 | +33,639 | -9,921 | +150 | +9,398 | 78,739 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2.05 | +1,500 (+4.7%) |
| 2025-05-27 | +32,139 | -8,515 | +138 | +9,629 | 75,610 | 96.2% | 98.1% | 1.97 | -661 (-2.0%) |
| 2025-05-20 | +32,800 | -8,994 | +382 | +10,006 | 77,437 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 2.09 | +2,005 (+6.5%) |
| 2025-05-13 | +30,795 | -8,733 | +1,428 | +10,982 | 77,469 | 96.2% | 98.1% | 1.95 | +2,475 (+8.7%) |
| 2025-05-06 | +28,320 | -7,267 | +1,636 | +10,875 | 72,081 | 90.4% | 95.2% | 1.76 | +1,457 (+5.4%) |
| 2025-04-29 | +26,863 | -7,034 | +1,669 | +10,111 | 68,916 | 76.9% | 88.6% | 1.65 | -308 (-1.1%) |
| 2025-04-22 | +27,171 | -7,410 | +646 | +9,574 | 66,533 | 84.6% | 92.4% | 1.72 | +2,548 (+10.3%) |
| 2025-04-15 | +24,623 | -5,674 | +850 | +9,482 | 68,812 | 75.0% | 87.6% | 1.50 | -2,328 (-8.6%) |
Who Is Holding
Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts
Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.
Managed MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportableProducer / MerchantSwap Dealers