Feeder Cattle

Neutral

livestock · Last COT: 2026-06-09

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Price

357.42

-2.23 (-0.6%)

52-wk Range

78%

302.45 — 375.50

Managed Money Net

+11,392

WoW: +93 (+0.8%)

Producer Net

-2,839

WoW: +279 (+8.9%)

Swap Dealer Net

+5,148

WoW: +829 (+19.2%)

CIT Net

+11,258

WoW: -156 (-1.4%)

52-wk Percentile

5.8%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

25.7%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-0.69

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

+0.04%

Week 24 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

47.6%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 70.7%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (78%) but managed money is underpositioned (26th percentile) — bearish divergence suggesting the rally may lack conviction.

Report Date Price

359.65

+6.27 (+1.78%) WoW

52-Week Range

302.45

375.50

78%

Divergence

Bearish Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (24)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.04%

Win Rate

47.6%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 21+4.25% (81%)

Week 26+1.13% (80%)

Week 17+1.04% (57%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 47-1.21% (45%)

Week 45-1.01% (30%)

Week 8-0.75% (38%)

Spring pasture season (Mar–May) boosts demand as ranchers restock. Fall weaning (Sep–Nov) increases supply as calves hit the market, typically pressuring prices.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (26th percentile) while macro is Mixed.

Corn Price

412.75+1.00 (+0.2%)↑

Rising corn prices increase feed costs for cattle and hog producers, squeezing margins and potentially reducing supply long-term.

Feeder/Live Spread

107.55-0.63 (-0.6%)↓

A widening feeder-to-live cattle spread signals improving feedlot margins. A narrowing spread suggests margin pressure.

DXY (USD Index)

99.75-0.11 (-0.1%)↓

A stronger dollar makes US meat exports less competitive globally. A weaker dollar supports export demand for livestock products.

VIX

17.68-1.76 (-9.1%)↓

Elevated volatility can disrupt supply chains and consumer spending patterns, creating uncertainty for livestock markets.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

13.0%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

100.0%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

76.2%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 30.5%WoW: +590 (+8.6%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Covered

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 1.06

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

405

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

423

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

0.96

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

20.0%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

-0.69

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

25.7%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

33.3%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

83.8%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-06-09	+11,392	-2,839	+5,148	+11,258	56,937	5.8%	25.7%	-0.69	+93 (+0.8%)
2026-06-02	+11,299	-3,118	+4,319	+11,414	58,048	3.8%	25.7%	-0.69	+336 (+3.1%)
2026-05-26	+10,963	-3,838	+4,306	+12,242	59,329	1.9%	24.8%	-0.71	-7,856 (-41.7%)
2026-05-19	+18,819	-6,288	+4,152	+12,221	63,984	34.6%	47.6%	-0.00	+910 (+5.1%)
2026-05-12	+17,909	-5,120	+4,267	+12,045	63,956	23.1%	41.0%	-0.07	-2,612 (-12.7%)
2026-05-05	+20,521	-6,588	+4,270	+12,041	65,692	44.2%	56.2%	0.17	+1,913 (+10.3%)
2026-04-28	+18,608	-5,872	+5,206	+12,417	66,362	26.9%	45.7%	0.02	-1,740 (-8.6%)
2026-04-21	+20,348	-6,562	+4,232	+12,399	67,608	40.4%	56.2%	0.18	-1,603 (-7.3%)
2026-04-14	+21,951	-7,373	+4,084	+12,334	69,930	44.2%	59.0%	0.33	+836 (+4.0%)
2026-04-07	+21,115	-7,047	+3,912	+12,275	71,518	42.3%	59.0%	0.27	+268 (+1.3%)
2026-03-31	+20,847	-6,999	+3,516	+11,728	69,682	40.4%	59.0%	0.25	+1,285 (+6.6%)
2026-03-24	+19,562	-6,732	+4,261	+11,729	69,976	36.5%	57.1%	0.15	+188 (+1.0%)
2026-03-17	+19,374	-6,817	+4,620	+11,584	72,644	34.6%	57.1%	0.14	+662 (+3.5%)
2026-03-10	+18,712	-6,535	+4,296	+11,662	72,436	26.9%	52.4%	0.09	-229 (-1.2%)
2026-03-03	+18,941	-5,554	+4,117	+11,844	77,199	30.8%	56.2%	0.12	-693 (-3.5%)
2026-02-24	+19,634	-7,626	+4,144	+11,802	77,915	30.8%	58.1%	0.19	+878 (+4.7%)
2026-02-17	+18,756	-7,702	+4,093	+12,292	75,376	26.9%	56.2%	0.13	+797 (+4.4%)
2026-02-10	+17,959	-7,686	+4,188	+12,351	74,279	25.0%	54.3%	0.07	+34 (+0.2%)
2026-02-03	+17,925	-8,662	+4,396	+13,383	79,277	23.1%	54.3%	0.08	-940 (-5.0%)
2026-01-27	+18,865	-7,347	+4,719	+13,719	78,781	23.1%	57.1%	0.17	+1,460 (+8.4%)
2026-01-20	+17,405	-6,923	+4,571	+13,987	77,696	20.2%	53.8%	0.06	+357 (+2.1%)
2026-01-13	+17,048	-5,934	+4,908	+14,007	75,124	15.4%	52.4%	0.05	-343 (-2.0%)
2026-01-06	+17,391	-6,672	+4,473	+13,432	72,392	15.4%	53.3%	0.09	+1,562 (+9.9%)
2025-12-30	+15,829	-5,705	+5,052	+13,400	68,748	11.5%	52.4%	-0.02	+631 (+4.2%)
2025-12-23	+15,198	-5,426	+5,041	+13,250	67,353	7.7%	50.5%	-0.06	+672 (+4.6%)
2025-12-16	+14,526	-5,012	+4,965	+12,938	66,071	5.8%	50.5%	-0.10	+159 (+1.1%)
2025-12-09	+14,367	-5,750	+4,844	+12,676	65,082	3.8%	50.5%	-0.10	+898 (+6.7%)
2025-12-02	+13,469	-6,490	+4,816	+12,386	63,345	1.9%	50.5%	-0.15	-2,211 (-14.1%)
2025-11-25	+15,680	-7,045	+4,412	+13,103	65,717	3.8%	52.4%	0.03	-1,316 (-7.7%)
2025-11-18	+16,996	-6,680	+3,948	+12,928	72,198	5.8%	53.3%	0.14	-409 (-2.3%)
2025-11-04	+17,405	-5,971	+3,077	+12,599	69,396	7.7%	54.3%	0.18	-4,979 (-22.2%)
2025-10-28	+22,384	-7,472	+3,066	+12,816	75,459	19.2%	60.0%	0.56	-3,955 (-15.0%)
2025-10-21	+26,339	-10,734	+2,264	+13,963	83,098	32.7%	66.7%	0.87	-442 (-1.7%)
2025-10-14	+26,781	-11,907	+2,335	+14,159	83,707	39.4%	70.0%	0.92	+387 (+1.5%)
2025-10-07	+26,394	-10,261	+2,345	+14,347	83,974	36.5%	68.6%	0.91	+2,971 (+12.7%)
2025-09-30	+23,423	-9,201	+2,749	+14,491	81,077	26.9%	63.8%	0.70	-450 (-1.9%)
2025-09-23	+23,873	-9,347	+2,110	+13,620	81,180	28.8%	64.8%	0.74	-1,539 (-6.1%)
2025-09-16	+25,412	-9,743	+1,791	+12,833	82,825	36.5%	68.6%	0.87	+102 (+0.4%)
2025-09-09	+25,310	-11,218	+2,937	+13,096	85,063	36.5%	68.6%	0.87	-2,334 (-8.4%)
2025-09-02	+27,644	-13,643	+2,729	+13,174	87,329	53.8%	77.1%	1.06	-2,782 (-9.1%)
2025-08-26	+30,426	-15,209	+1,577	+12,489	89,626	67.3%	83.8%	1.29	-2,421 (-7.4%)
2025-08-19	+32,847	-13,957	+1,735	+12,671	90,606	80.8%	90.5%	1.50	-173 (-0.5%)
2025-08-12	+33,020	-13,083	+1,824	+12,022	91,822	82.7%	91.4%	1.54	-2,959 (-8.2%)
2025-08-05	+35,979	-13,684	+1,569	+11,529	96,766	94.2%	97.1%	1.81	+1,939 (+5.7%)
2025-07-29	+34,040	-13,215	+1,543	+11,487	94,930	88.5%	94.3%	1.70	-2,374 (-6.5%)
2025-07-22	+36,414	-12,281	+886	+10,855	96,777	100.0%	100.0%	1.93	+148 (+0.4%)
2025-07-15	+36,266	-11,314	+716	+10,818	95,929	100.0%	100.0%	1.97	+70 (+0.2%)
2025-07-08	+36,196	-10,694	-27	+10,160	94,897	100.0%	100.0%	2.02	+3,524 (+10.8%)
2025-07-01	+32,672	-9,320	-93	+9,959	90,942	90.4%	95.2%	1.77	-1,597 (-4.7%)
2025-06-24	+34,269	-9,790	+235	+10,108	87,430	96.2%	98.1%	1.95	-324 (-0.9%)
2025-06-17	+34,593	-10,374	+512	+10,595	86,434	98.1%	99.0%	2.03	-31 (-0.1%)
2025-06-10	+34,624	-10,616	+364	+10,270	83,978	100.0%	100.0%	2.08	+985 (+2.9%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Managed MoneyOther ReportablesSwap DealersNonreportableProducer / Merchant