Gold
Liquidation Riskmetals · Last COT: 2026-04-14
-59.00 (-1.2%)
3182.00 — 5230.50
WoW: +5,109 (+5.7%)
WoW: +766 (+4.0%)
WoW: -8,097 (-4.6%)
Based on 52 observations
Based on 105 observations
Week 17 · 20y avg
20 years of data
Price Context
Price is near 52-week highs (78%) while COT positioning is at a 2-year extreme low (7th percentile) — classic bearish divergence. Historically associated with trend exhaustion or distribution phases.
Report Date Price
-6.80 (-0.14%) WoW
52-Week Range
78%
Divergence
Bearish DivergenceSeasonality
Macro Context
A falling dollar makes gold and silver cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting prices. A rising dollar is a headwind for precious metals.
Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals like gold. Falling yields are bullish for precious metals.
Higher short-term rates signal tighter Fed policy, which historically pressures gold. Lower rates ease monetary conditions and support metals.
Elevated volatility drives safe-haven demand into gold and silver. Low VIX reflects complacency and reduces the urgency to hold precious metals.
Disaggregated Signals
MM Spread Ratio
9.2%
Normal
Producer 52-wk %ile
96.2%
Obs: 52
Producer 105-wk %ile
98.1%
Obs: 105
Conviction & Spread Analysis
Change Decomposition
Latest: Both (Strong)Retail vs Smart Money
Retail Z-Score: 1.18Concentration Risk
Risk spreading — position becoming less fragileConcentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks
Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)
PartialRecent-cycle context
105-wk rolling
Cross-cycle view
Cross-cycle view
Last 52 Weeks
| Date | MM Net | Producer Net | Swap Net | Open Interest | 52-wk %ile | 105-wk %ile | Z-Score | WoW Chg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | +95,141 | -18,530 | -182,552 | 362,274 | 13.5% | 6.7% | -1.38 | +5,109 (+5.7%) |
| 2026-04-07 | +90,032 | -19,296 | -174,455 | 354,877 | 1.9% | 1.0% | -1.52 | -2,782 (-3.0%) |
| 2026-03-31 | +92,814 | -19,910 | -181,730 | 361,409 | 9.6% | 4.8% | -1.49 | +1,193 (+1.3%) |
| 2026-03-24 | +91,621 | -22,216 | -181,612 | 403,925 | 1.9% | 1.0% | -1.55 | -10,422 (-10.2%) |
| 2026-03-17 | +102,043 | -17,834 | -180,814 | 411,388 | 21.2% | 10.5% | -1.35 | +3,644 (+3.7%) |
| 2026-03-10 | +98,399 | -19,696 | -183,280 | 413,956 | 15.4% | 7.6% | -1.45 | +482 (+0.5%) |
| 2026-03-03 | +97,917 | -20,791 | -179,792 | 409,789 | 11.5% | 5.7% | -1.48 | +1,943 (+2.0%) |
| 2026-02-24 | +95,974 | -19,818 | -180,988 | 420,182 | 9.6% | 5.7% | -1.50 | +81 (+0.1%) |
| 2026-02-17 | +95,893 | -21,398 | -175,384 | 407,078 | 7.7% | 5.7% | -1.48 | +3,871 (+4.2%) |
| 2026-02-10 | +92,022 | -18,445 | -179,293 | 404,391 | 1.9% | 3.8% | -1.52 | -50 (-0.1%) |
| 2026-02-03 | +92,072 | -24,634 | -183,144 | 409,694 | 1.9% | 4.8% | -1.52 | -26,087 (-22.1%) |
| 2026-01-27 | +118,159 | -40,589 | -207,696 | 488,463 | 25.0% | 17.1% | -0.94 | -19,285 (-14.0%) |
| 2026-01-20 | +137,444 | -42,289 | -247,400 | 528,004 | 63.5% | 38.1% | -0.50 | +2,699 (+2.0%) |
| 2026-01-13 | +134,745 | -51,165 | -245,941 | 527,455 | 55.8% | 35.2% | -0.55 | +11,532 (+9.4%) |
| 2026-01-06 | +123,213 | -50,542 | -221,493 | 488,116 | 28.8% | 21.9% | -0.78 | -2,827 (-2.2%) |
| 2025-12-30 | +126,040 | -54,481 | -220,765 | 481,866 | 38.5% | 26.7% | -0.73 | -10,230 (-7.5%) |
| 2025-12-23 | +136,270 | -51,284 | -232,242 | 492,103 | 51.9% | 35.2% | -0.51 | +3,674 (+2.8%) |
| 2025-12-16 | +132,596 | -44,249 | -230,109 | 471,093 | 48.1% | 33.3% | -0.59 | +9,048 (+7.3%) |
| 2025-12-09 | +123,548 | -49,393 | -213,186 | 432,569 | 28.8% | 22.9% | -0.78 | +3,224 (+2.7%) |
| 2025-12-02 | +120,324 | -48,707 | -206,641 | 418,490 | 25.0% | 21.0% | -0.85 | +11,015 (+10.1%) |
| 2025-11-25 | +109,309 | -46,692 | -194,711 | 432,946 | 21.2% | 18.1% | -1.09 | +11,104 (+11.3%) |
| 2025-11-18 | +98,205 | -58,897 | -186,688 | 471,953 | 3.8% | 7.6% | -1.33 | -5,625 (-5.4%) |
| 2025-11-10 | +103,830 | -48,886 | -171,654 | 837,169 | 9.6% | 12.4% | -1.21 | +3,285 (+3.3%) |
| 2025-11-04 | +100,545 | -59,451 | -177,091 | 450,399 | 3.8% | 8.6% | -1.28 | -3,614 (-3.5%) |
| 2025-10-28 | +104,159 | -58,194 | -178,833 | 457,122 | 7.7% | 11.4% | -1.20 | +11,932 (+12.9%) |
| 2025-10-21 | +92,227 | -57,778 | -152,339 | 472,421 | 1.9% | 7.6% | -1.45 | -16,083 (-14.8%) |
| 2025-10-14 | +108,310 | -61,457 | -175,410 | 485,788 | 9.6% | 17.1% | -1.07 | -21,449 (-16.5%) |
| 2025-10-07 | +129,759 | -65,352 | -198,420 | 485,559 | 23.1% | 26.7% | -0.57 | -15,468 (-10.7%) |
| 2025-09-30 | +145,227 | -65,397 | -222,839 | 493,748 | 38.5% | 41.0% | -0.23 | -15,322 (-9.5%) |
| 2025-09-23 | +160,549 | -67,152 | -231,251 | 528,789 | 46.2% | 48.6% | 0.07 | +1,578 (+1.0%) |
| 2025-09-16 | +158,971 | -65,384 | -236,987 | 516,221 | 42.3% | 46.7% | 0.06 | -4,548 (-2.8%) |
| 2025-09-09 | +163,519 | -62,554 | -210,821 | 509,625 | 46.2% | 51.4% | 0.16 | +2,017 (+1.2%) |
| 2025-09-02 | +161,502 | -55,302 | -218,596 | 492,908 | 44.2% | 50.5% | 0.14 | +19,585 (+13.8%) |
| 2025-08-26 | +141,917 | -42,328 | -208,637 | 443,760 | 34.6% | 42.9% | -0.19 | +4,532 (+3.3%) |
| 2025-08-19 | +137,385 | -40,005 | -209,960 | 438,541 | 32.7% | 41.9% | -0.24 | -10,902 (-7.4%) |
| 2025-08-12 | +148,287 | -39,750 | -223,315 | 446,152 | 34.6% | 45.7% | -0.04 | -5,700 (-3.7%) |
| 2025-08-05 | +153,987 | -34,017 | -236,129 | 449,647 | 34.6% | 46.7% | 0.07 | +19,731 (+14.7%) |
| 2025-07-29 | +134,256 | -48,170 | -210,909 | 445,259 | 28.8% | 41.9% | -0.25 | -25,678 (-16.1%) |
| 2025-07-22 | +159,934 | -51,362 | -230,975 | 489,423 | 32.7% | 50.5% | 0.18 | +23,207 (+17.0%) |
| 2025-07-15 | +136,727 | -46,736 | -203,952 | 448,531 | 28.8% | 44.8% | -0.20 | +7,785 (+6.0%) |
| 2025-07-08 | +128,942 | -46,812 | -191,542 | 443,144 | 21.2% | 37.1% | -0.33 | -1,418 (-1.1%) |
| 2025-07-01 | +130,360 | -49,413 | -186,656 | 437,662 | 21.2% | 38.1% | -0.30 | +5,232 (+4.2%) |
| 2025-06-24 | +125,128 | -50,415 | -180,145 | 434,958 | 19.2% | 38.1% | -0.38 | -5,383 (-4.1%) |
| 2025-06-17 | +130,511 | -52,962 | -184,765 | 441,214 | 19.2% | 39.0% | -0.28 | +6,420 (+5.2%) |
| 2025-06-10 | +124,091 | -49,365 | -173,353 | 417,143 | 15.4% | 38.1% | -0.38 | +509 (+0.4%) |
| 2025-06-03 | +123,582 | -48,108 | -172,718 | 415,941 | 13.5% | 38.1% | -0.39 | +12,766 (+11.5%) |
| 2025-05-27 | +110,816 | -46,192 | -161,395 | 437,538 | 9.6% | 33.3% | -0.59 | +3,187 (+3.0%) |
| 2025-05-20 | +107,629 | -38,817 | -158,831 | 448,000 | 7.7% | 31.4% | -0.64 | +6,402 (+6.3%) |
| 2025-05-13 | +101,227 | -41,533 | -149,674 | 440,842 | 1.9% | 25.7% | -0.75 | -864 (-0.8%) |
| 2025-05-06 | +102,091 | -45,285 | -146,818 | 452,414 | 1.9% | 25.7% | -0.75 | -3,804 (-3.6%) |
| 2025-04-29 | +105,895 | -45,074 | -145,687 | 451,868 | 1.9% | 26.7% | -0.69 | -15,007 (-12.4%) |
| 2025-04-22 | +120,902 | -45,310 | -156,958 | 465,351 | 1.9% | 34.3% | -0.45 | -3,952 (-3.2%) |
Who Is Holding
Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts
Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.