Bullion

Gold

Liquidation Risk

metals · Last COT: 2026-08-25

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Gold futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is within its recent range (63th percentile).

Crowd risk

Liquidation Risk

91.4% of Managed Money contracts are long, which raises exit-risk even if net positioning is not at a high percentile.

Price context

Price sits 62% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Strong seasonal bias for week 35. Macro is mixed.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price
4529.90

As of 2026-08-28 · -79.80 (-1.7%)

52-wk Range
62%

3613.20 — 5230.50

Managed Money Net
+144,747

WoW: +3,099 (+2.2%)

Producer Net
-34,558

WoW: -4,797 (-16.1%)

Swap Dealer Net
-245,027

WoW: -16,370 (-7.2%)

52-wk Percentile
90.4%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile
62.9%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score
-0.02
Crowd Risk
Liquidation Risk
Seasonal Ret
+0.70%

Week 35 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%
76.2%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias
Strong
Swap Net: ShortClassic SetupMM Long Concentration: 91.4%

Price Context

Price is in the upper half of its range (62%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (63th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

COT Baseline Price

4609.70

As of 2026-08-24

+93.40 (+2.07%) WoW

52-Week Range

3613.20
5230.50

62%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (35)
Strong
Avg Return
+0.70%
Win Rate
76.2%(21y)
3 Strongest Weeks
Week 52+1.30% (70%)
Week 4+1.27% (67%)
Week 41+1.25% (80%)
3 Weakest Weeks
Week 37-0.99% (45%)
Week 49-0.74% (35%)
Week 53-0.56% (33%)
Indian wedding and festival season (Oct–Jan) and Chinese New Year (Jan–Feb) boost physical demand. Summer months (Jun–Aug) are historically quieter.

Macro Context

Mixed
COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (63th percentile) while macro is Mixed.
DXY (USD Index)
99.68+0.52 (+0.5%)

A falling dollar makes gold and silver cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting prices. A rising dollar is a headwind for precious metals.

US 10Y Yield
4.72+0.05 (+1.0%)

Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals like gold. Falling yields are bullish for precious metals.

13-Week T-Bill
3.73+0.05 (+1.4%)

Higher short-term rates signal tighter Fed policy, which historically pressures gold. Lower rates ease monetary conditions and support metals.

VIX
14.43-0.08 (-0.6%)

Elevated volatility drives safe-haven demand into gold and silver. Low VIX reflects complacency and reduces the urgency to hold precious metals.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

DateMM NetProducer NetSwap NetOpen Interest52-wk %ile105-wk %ileZ-ScoreWoW Chg
2026-08-25+144,747-34,558-245,027427,95790.4%62.9%-0.02+3,099 (+2.2%)
2026-08-18+141,648-29,761-228,657406,26088.5%60.0%-0.10+3,986 (+2.9%)
2026-08-11+137,662-27,935-224,705400,30988.5%59.0%-0.20+6,896 (+5.3%)
2026-08-04+130,766-18,856-207,635371,55176.9%50.5%-0.35+10,971 (+9.2%)
2026-07-28+119,795-20,549-191,760384,60359.6%34.3%-0.59-5,036 (-4.0%)
2026-07-21+124,831-19,321-193,878383,36869.2%41.9%-0.50+4,052 (+3.4%)
2026-07-14+120,779-19,149-195,639383,68963.5%36.2%-0.60+4,618 (+4.0%)
2026-07-07+116,161-20,986-201,296371,77655.8%32.4%-0.70-3,930 (-3.3%)
2026-06-30+120,091-17,046-204,024369,54157.7%33.3%-0.64+4,696 (+4.1%)
2026-06-23+115,395-9,336-196,068352,16753.8%31.4%-0.74+1,674 (+1.5%)
2026-06-16+113,721-17,047-190,516339,33051.9%30.5%-0.79+7,858 (+7.4%)
2026-06-09+105,863-19,300-181,736332,70944.2%23.8%-0.97-6,316 (-5.6%)
2026-06-02+112,179-20,154-186,191326,05248.1%28.6%-0.86+14,733 (+15.1%)
2026-05-26+97,446-19,510-166,256353,48926.9%13.3%-1.18+3,906 (+4.2%)
2026-05-19+93,540-17,914-173,715379,32517.3%8.6%-1.28-4,475 (-4.6%)
2026-05-12+98,015-20,202-190,056376,49626.9%13.3%-1.21+3,761 (+4.0%)
2026-05-05+94,254-19,112-179,823367,93217.3%8.6%-1.31+4,502 (+5.0%)
2026-04-28+89,752-20,192-174,621369,5301.9%1.0%-1.43-3,224 (-3.5%)
2026-04-21+92,976-20,418-182,522365,84213.5%6.7%-1.40-2,165 (-2.3%)
2026-04-14+95,141-18,530-182,552362,27413.5%6.7%-1.38+5,109 (+5.7%)
2026-04-07+90,032-19,296-174,455354,8771.9%1.0%-1.52-2,782 (-3.0%)
2026-03-31+92,814-19,910-181,730361,4099.6%4.8%-1.49+1,193 (+1.3%)
2026-03-24+91,621-22,216-181,612403,9251.9%1.0%-1.55-10,422 (-10.2%)
2026-03-17+102,043-17,834-180,814411,38821.2%10.5%-1.35+3,644 (+3.7%)
2026-03-10+98,399-19,696-183,280413,95615.4%7.6%-1.45+482 (+0.5%)
2026-03-03+97,917-20,791-179,792409,78911.5%5.7%-1.48+1,943 (+2.0%)
2026-02-24+95,974-19,818-180,988420,1829.6%5.7%-1.50+81 (+0.1%)
2026-02-17+95,893-21,398-175,384407,0787.7%5.7%-1.48+3,871 (+4.2%)
2026-02-10+92,022-18,445-179,293404,3911.9%3.8%-1.52-50 (-0.1%)
2026-02-03+92,072-24,634-183,144409,6941.9%4.8%-1.52-26,087 (-22.1%)
2026-01-27+118,159-40,589-207,696488,46325.0%17.1%-0.94-19,285 (-14.0%)
2026-01-20+137,444-42,289-247,400528,00463.5%38.1%-0.50+2,699 (+2.0%)
2026-01-13+134,745-51,165-245,941527,45555.8%35.2%-0.55+11,532 (+9.4%)
2026-01-06+123,213-50,542-221,493488,11628.8%21.9%-0.78-2,827 (-2.2%)
2025-12-30+126,040-54,481-220,765481,86638.5%26.7%-0.73-10,230 (-7.5%)
2025-12-23+136,270-51,284-232,242492,10351.9%35.2%-0.51+3,674 (+2.8%)
2025-12-16+132,596-44,249-230,109471,09348.1%33.3%-0.59+9,048 (+7.3%)
2025-12-09+123,548-49,393-213,186432,56928.8%22.9%-0.78+3,224 (+2.7%)
2025-12-02+120,324-48,707-206,641418,49025.0%21.0%-0.85+11,015 (+10.1%)
2025-11-25+109,309-46,692-194,711432,94621.2%18.1%-1.09+11,104 (+11.3%)
2025-11-18+98,205-58,897-186,688471,9533.8%7.6%-1.33-5,625 (-5.4%)
2025-11-10+103,830-48,886-171,654837,1699.6%12.4%-1.21+3,285 (+3.3%)
2025-11-04+100,545-59,451-177,091450,3993.8%8.6%-1.28-3,614 (-3.5%)
2025-10-28+104,159-58,194-178,833457,1227.7%11.4%-1.20+11,932 (+12.9%)
2025-10-21+92,227-57,778-152,339472,4211.9%7.6%-1.45-16,083 (-14.8%)
2025-10-14+108,310-61,457-175,410485,7889.6%17.1%-1.07-21,449 (-16.5%)
2025-10-07+129,759-65,352-198,420485,55923.1%26.7%-0.57-15,468 (-10.7%)
2025-09-30+145,227-65,397-222,839493,74838.5%41.0%-0.23-15,322 (-9.5%)
2025-09-23+160,549-67,152-231,251528,78946.2%48.6%0.07+1,578 (+1.0%)
2025-09-16+158,971-65,384-236,987516,22142.3%46.7%0.06-4,548 (-2.8%)
2025-09-09+163,519-62,554-210,821509,62546.2%51.4%0.16+2,017 (+1.2%)
2025-09-02+161,502-55,302-218,596492,90844.2%50.5%0.14+19,585 (+13.8%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportableProducer / Merchant