Bullion Dashboard

Gold

Liquidation Risk

metals · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price
4726.40

-59.00 (-1.2%)

52-wk Range
78%

3182.00 — 5230.50

Managed Money Net
+95,141

WoW: +5,109 (+5.7%)

Producer Net
-18,530

WoW: +766 (+4.0%)

Swap Dealer Net
-182,552

WoW: -8,097 (-4.6%)

52-wk Percentile
13.5%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile
6.7%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score
-1.38
Crowd Risk
Liquidation Risk
Seasonal Ret
+0.70%

Week 17 · 20y avg

Seasonal Win%
55.0%

20 years of data

Seasonal Bias
Neutral
Swap Net: ShortHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 80.6%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (78%) while COT positioning is at a 2-year extreme low (7th percentile) — classic bearish divergence. Historically associated with trend exhaustion or distribution phases.

Report Date Price

4785.40

-6.80 (-0.14%) WoW

52-Week Range

3182.00
5230.50

78%

Divergence

Bearish Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (17)
Neutral
Avg Return
+0.70%
Win Rate
55.0%(20y)
3 Strongest Weeks
Week 52+1.30% (70%)
Week 4+1.27% (67%)
Week 41+1.25% (80%)
3 Weakest Weeks
Week 37-0.99% (45%)
Week 49-0.74% (35%)
Week 33-0.57% (40%)
Indian wedding and festival season (Oct–Jan) and Chinese New Year (Jan–Feb) boost physical demand. Summer months (Jun–Aug) are historically quieter.

Macro Context

Mixed
COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year low (7th percentile — bullish contrarian) while macro is Mixed.
DXY (USD Index)
98.62+0.40 (+0.4%)

A falling dollar makes gold and silver cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting prices. A rising dollar is a headwind for precious metals.

US 10Y Yield
4.29-0.02 (-0.3%)

Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals like gold. Falling yields are bullish for precious metals.

13-Week T-Bill
3.60-0.01 (-0.4%)

Higher short-term rates signal tighter Fed policy, which historically pressures gold. Lower rates ease monetary conditions and support metals.

VIX
18.92+0.98 (+5.5%)

Elevated volatility drives safe-haven demand into gold and silver. Low VIX reflects complacency and reduces the urgency to hold precious metals.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

9.2%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

96.2%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

98.1%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 47.6%WoW: +502 (+1.5%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Both (Strong)

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 1.18

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile
Avg Contracts / Long Trader
1,511
Avg Contracts / Short Trader
2,329
Long/Short Concentration Ratio
0.65
Long Conc. 105-wk %ile
7.6%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Partial
Raw Z-Score
-1.38

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile
6.7%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile
66.7%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile
83.8%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

DateMM NetProducer NetSwap NetOpen Interest52-wk %ile105-wk %ileZ-ScoreWoW Chg
2026-04-14+95,141-18,530-182,552362,27413.5%6.7%-1.38+5,109 (+5.7%)
2026-04-07+90,032-19,296-174,455354,8771.9%1.0%-1.52-2,782 (-3.0%)
2026-03-31+92,814-19,910-181,730361,4099.6%4.8%-1.49+1,193 (+1.3%)
2026-03-24+91,621-22,216-181,612403,9251.9%1.0%-1.55-10,422 (-10.2%)
2026-03-17+102,043-17,834-180,814411,38821.2%10.5%-1.35+3,644 (+3.7%)
2026-03-10+98,399-19,696-183,280413,95615.4%7.6%-1.45+482 (+0.5%)
2026-03-03+97,917-20,791-179,792409,78911.5%5.7%-1.48+1,943 (+2.0%)
2026-02-24+95,974-19,818-180,988420,1829.6%5.7%-1.50+81 (+0.1%)
2026-02-17+95,893-21,398-175,384407,0787.7%5.7%-1.48+3,871 (+4.2%)
2026-02-10+92,022-18,445-179,293404,3911.9%3.8%-1.52-50 (-0.1%)
2026-02-03+92,072-24,634-183,144409,6941.9%4.8%-1.52-26,087 (-22.1%)
2026-01-27+118,159-40,589-207,696488,46325.0%17.1%-0.94-19,285 (-14.0%)
2026-01-20+137,444-42,289-247,400528,00463.5%38.1%-0.50+2,699 (+2.0%)
2026-01-13+134,745-51,165-245,941527,45555.8%35.2%-0.55+11,532 (+9.4%)
2026-01-06+123,213-50,542-221,493488,11628.8%21.9%-0.78-2,827 (-2.2%)
2025-12-30+126,040-54,481-220,765481,86638.5%26.7%-0.73-10,230 (-7.5%)
2025-12-23+136,270-51,284-232,242492,10351.9%35.2%-0.51+3,674 (+2.8%)
2025-12-16+132,596-44,249-230,109471,09348.1%33.3%-0.59+9,048 (+7.3%)
2025-12-09+123,548-49,393-213,186432,56928.8%22.9%-0.78+3,224 (+2.7%)
2025-12-02+120,324-48,707-206,641418,49025.0%21.0%-0.85+11,015 (+10.1%)
2025-11-25+109,309-46,692-194,711432,94621.2%18.1%-1.09+11,104 (+11.3%)
2025-11-18+98,205-58,897-186,688471,9533.8%7.6%-1.33-5,625 (-5.4%)
2025-11-10+103,830-48,886-171,654837,1699.6%12.4%-1.21+3,285 (+3.3%)
2025-11-04+100,545-59,451-177,091450,3993.8%8.6%-1.28-3,614 (-3.5%)
2025-10-28+104,159-58,194-178,833457,1227.7%11.4%-1.20+11,932 (+12.9%)
2025-10-21+92,227-57,778-152,339472,4211.9%7.6%-1.45-16,083 (-14.8%)
2025-10-14+108,310-61,457-175,410485,7889.6%17.1%-1.07-21,449 (-16.5%)
2025-10-07+129,759-65,352-198,420485,55923.1%26.7%-0.57-15,468 (-10.7%)
2025-09-30+145,227-65,397-222,839493,74838.5%41.0%-0.23-15,322 (-9.5%)
2025-09-23+160,549-67,152-231,251528,78946.2%48.6%0.07+1,578 (+1.0%)
2025-09-16+158,971-65,384-236,987516,22142.3%46.7%0.06-4,548 (-2.8%)
2025-09-09+163,519-62,554-210,821509,62546.2%51.4%0.16+2,017 (+1.2%)
2025-09-02+161,502-55,302-218,596492,90844.2%50.5%0.14+19,585 (+13.8%)
2025-08-26+141,917-42,328-208,637443,76034.6%42.9%-0.19+4,532 (+3.3%)
2025-08-19+137,385-40,005-209,960438,54132.7%41.9%-0.24-10,902 (-7.4%)
2025-08-12+148,287-39,750-223,315446,15234.6%45.7%-0.04-5,700 (-3.7%)
2025-08-05+153,987-34,017-236,129449,64734.6%46.7%0.07+19,731 (+14.7%)
2025-07-29+134,256-48,170-210,909445,25928.8%41.9%-0.25-25,678 (-16.1%)
2025-07-22+159,934-51,362-230,975489,42332.7%50.5%0.18+23,207 (+17.0%)
2025-07-15+136,727-46,736-203,952448,53128.8%44.8%-0.20+7,785 (+6.0%)
2025-07-08+128,942-46,812-191,542443,14421.2%37.1%-0.33-1,418 (-1.1%)
2025-07-01+130,360-49,413-186,656437,66221.2%38.1%-0.30+5,232 (+4.2%)
2025-06-24+125,128-50,415-180,145434,95819.2%38.1%-0.38-5,383 (-4.1%)
2025-06-17+130,511-52,962-184,765441,21419.2%39.0%-0.28+6,420 (+5.2%)
2025-06-10+124,091-49,365-173,353417,14315.4%38.1%-0.38+509 (+0.4%)
2025-06-03+123,582-48,108-172,718415,94113.5%38.1%-0.39+12,766 (+11.5%)
2025-05-27+110,816-46,192-161,395437,5389.6%33.3%-0.59+3,187 (+3.0%)
2025-05-20+107,629-38,817-158,831448,0007.7%31.4%-0.64+6,402 (+6.3%)
2025-05-13+101,227-41,533-149,674440,8421.9%25.7%-0.75-864 (-0.8%)
2025-05-06+102,091-45,285-146,818452,4141.9%25.7%-0.75-3,804 (-3.6%)
2025-04-29+105,895-45,074-145,687451,8681.9%26.7%-0.69-15,007 (-12.4%)
2025-04-22+120,902-45,310-156,958465,3511.9%34.3%-0.45-3,952 (-3.2%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportableProducer / Merchant