Heating Oil

Neutral

energy · Last COT: 2026-10-13

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Heating Oil futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics Follow the Oil Shock Tracker

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is within its recent range (49th percentile).

Crowd risk

Neutral

Gross long exposure is not at the dashboard's concentration threshold.

Price context

Price sits 91% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Neutral seasonal bias for week 43. Macro is supportive.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

4.73

As of 2026-10-22 · -0.1139 (-2.4%)

52-wk Range

91%

2.11 — 5.11

Managed Money Net

+11,754

WoW: +801 (+7.3%)

Producer Net

-85,202

WoW: -4,430 (-5.5%)

Swap Dealer Net

+51,692

WoW: +795 (+1.6%)

52-wk Percentile

40.4%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

48.6%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

0.14

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

+0.93%

Week 43 · 20y avg

Seasonal Win%

50.0%

20 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 61.0%

Price Context

Price is mid-range (91%) with neutral positioning (49th percentile) — no strong signal from the price-COT relationship.

COT Baseline Price

4.85

As of 2026-10-12

-0.0373 (-0.76%) WoW

52-Week Range

2.11

5.11

91%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (43)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.93%

Win Rate

50.0%(20y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 9+2.62% (62%)

Week 19+2.34% (57%)

Week 23+2.18% (67%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 18-2.01% (33%)

Week 49-1.72% (35%)

Week 10-1.64% (33%)

Peak demand runs Nov–Mar during the heating season. Refinery maintenance in spring creates a secondary tightness. Summer typically sees seasonal lows.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (49th percentile) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

101.61-0.39 (-0.4%)↓

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-US buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for energy prices.

Brent-WTI Spread

13.27+5.32 (+66.9%)↑

A widening Brent-WTI spread signals tighter global supply relative to US supply. A narrowing spread suggests US oversupply or weakening global demand.

VIX

19.06+2.60 (+15.8%)↑

High volatility typically accompanies risk-off moves that weigh on industrial energy demand. Stable low volatility supports steady consumption.

US 10Y Yield

4.96-0.13 (-2.5%)↓

Rising yields reflect growth expectations that support energy demand. Falling yields may signal economic slowdown concerns.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-10-13	+11,754	-85,202	+51,692	278,003	40.4%	48.6%	0.14	+801 (+7.3%)
2026-10-06	+10,953	-80,772	+50,897	251,338	32.7%	45.7%	0.11	-1,737 (-13.7%)
2026-09-29	+12,690	-81,141	+50,687	245,777	50.0%	56.2%	0.23	+2,958 (+30.4%)
2026-09-22	+9,732	-82,985	+50,385	283,413	25.0%	43.8%	0.09	-3,736 (-27.7%)
2026-09-15	+13,468	-83,921	+48,561	284,912	48.1%	58.1%	0.31	-2,536 (-15.8%)
2026-09-08	+16,004	-82,089	+47,802	271,261	53.8%	64.8%	0.45	-4,981 (-23.7%)
2026-09-01	+20,985	-86,444	+47,779	271,685	73.1%	76.2%	0.70	+3,643 (+21.0%)
2026-08-25	+17,342	-83,813	+49,510	284,157	57.7%	68.6%	0.54	+872 (+5.3%)
2026-08-18	+16,470	-83,372	+47,909	284,745	53.8%	67.6%	0.51	+2,432 (+17.3%)
2026-08-11	+14,038	-81,123	+43,917	277,336	51.9%	66.7%	0.41	+2,759 (+24.5%)
2026-08-04	+11,279	-78,130	+44,313	260,598	30.8%	53.3%	0.30	-95 (-0.8%)
2026-07-28	+11,374	-78,289	+44,994	256,560	30.8%	54.3%	0.31	-2,317 (-16.9%)
2026-07-21	+13,691	-76,586	+42,527	268,189	44.2%	63.8%	0.43	+2,772 (+25.4%)
2026-07-14	+10,919	-74,784	+42,255	270,297	28.8%	55.2%	0.31	+6,116 (+127.3%)
2026-07-07	+4,803	-67,000	+43,286	281,215	11.5%	44.8%	0.03	-3,691 (-43.5%)
2026-06-30	+8,494	-66,772	+43,307	267,942	15.4%	50.5%	0.21	+2,240 (+35.8%)
2026-06-23	+6,254	-59,818	+39,584	276,889	11.5%	48.6%	0.11	-3,193 (-33.8%)
2026-06-16	+9,447	-63,357	+38,374	279,085	13.5%	51.4%	0.27	-158 (-1.6%)
2026-06-09	+9,605	-63,875	+37,536	261,554	13.5%	52.4%	0.28	-2,555 (-21.0%)
2026-06-02	+12,160	-67,789	+36,733	256,065	25.0%	60.0%	0.41	+4,430 (+57.3%)
2026-05-26	+7,730	-66,546	+36,967	254,519	13.5%	51.4%	0.20	-3,063 (-28.4%)
2026-05-19	+10,793	-67,076	+36,089	270,531	19.2%	55.2%	0.34	+1,187 (+12.4%)
2026-05-12	+9,606	-67,238	+36,535	275,753	17.3%	54.3%	0.29	-2,162 (-18.4%)
2026-05-05	+11,768	-66,622	+36,117	257,574	23.1%	58.1%	0.39	-809 (-6.4%)
2026-04-28	+12,577	-67,595	+36,423	254,558	28.8%	61.9%	0.44	-1,437 (-10.3%)
2026-04-21	+14,014	-66,852	+38,089	263,440	34.6%	66.7%	0.51	-2,731 (-16.3%)
2026-04-14	+16,745	-67,021	+37,173	259,082	38.5%	68.6%	0.64	-1,317 (-7.3%)
2026-04-07	+18,062	-72,894	+42,331	245,616	40.4%	70.5%	0.71	-1,645 (-8.3%)
2026-03-31	+19,707	-71,789	+41,455	250,551	46.2%	73.3%	0.79	+1,082 (+5.8%)
2026-03-24	+18,625	-75,758	+45,086	275,128	46.2%	73.3%	0.75	-4,781 (-20.4%)
2026-03-17	+23,406	-82,704	+43,507	285,275	63.5%	81.9%	0.98	+3,630 (+18.4%)
2026-03-10	+19,776	-84,199	+46,331	304,224	50.0%	75.2%	0.82	-2,926 (-12.9%)
2026-03-03	+22,702	-96,672	+52,740	325,938	63.5%	81.9%	0.96	+178 (+0.8%)
2026-02-24	+22,524	-101,396	+60,528	378,635	63.5%	81.0%	0.95	+9,932 (+78.9%)
2026-02-17	+12,592	-98,191	+62,390	394,972	44.2%	68.6%	0.48	-7,723 (-38.0%)
2026-02-10	+20,315	-103,800	+64,678	378,033	57.7%	76.2%	0.83	-4,010 (-16.5%)
2026-02-03	+24,325	-110,219	+66,131	384,174	67.3%	81.9%	1.03	+13,713 (+129.2%)
2026-01-27	+10,612	-112,735	+71,777	400,218	38.5%	61.0%	0.38	+11,722 (+1056.0%)
2026-01-20	-1,110	-106,711	+74,594	412,974	21.2%	41.0%	-0.17	+4,832 (+81.3%)
2026-01-13	-5,942	-100,302	+73,996	381,401	15.4%	35.2%	-0.41	-6,519 (-1129.8%)
2026-01-06	+577	-96,447	+69,163	363,276	23.1%	42.9%	-0.12	-3,050 (-84.1%)
2025-12-30	+3,627	-100,057	+68,018	353,481	32.7%	50.5%	0.02	+447 (+14.1%)
2025-12-23	+3,180	-97,429	+67,508	360,436	28.8%	44.8%	-0.01	-9,346 (-74.6%)
2025-12-16	+12,526	-98,535	+62,180	364,343	46.2%	61.9%	0.41	-7,259 (-36.7%)
2025-12-09	+19,785	-99,550	+56,121	370,784	59.6%	74.3%	0.75	-1,230 (-5.9%)
2025-12-02	+21,015	-107,557	+55,551	361,751	61.5%	74.3%	0.80	-771 (-3.5%)
2025-11-25	+21,786	-97,536	+56,510	356,805	65.4%	75.2%	0.82	-15,829 (-42.1%)
2025-11-18	+37,615	-114,193	+55,822	402,936	92.3%	96.2%	1.53	+157 (+0.4%)
2025-11-10	+37,458	-115,348	+51,318	382,206	92.3%	96.2%	1.53	+5,369 (+16.7%)
2025-11-04	+32,089	-114,117	+56,766	376,492	84.6%	89.5%	1.29	+6,296 (+24.4%)
2025-10-28	+25,793	-105,752	+59,612	385,034	75.0%	81.0%	1.00	+14,229 (+123.0%)
2025-10-21	+11,564	-94,977	+63,465	408,678	55.8%	59.0%	0.35	-292 (-2.5%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantSwap DealersNonreportableManaged MoneyOther Reportables