Heating Oil

Neutral

energy · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

3.40

-0.4355 (-11.4%)

52-wk Range

75%

1.99 — 4.43

Managed Money Net

+16,745

WoW: -1,317 (-7.3%)

Producer Net

-67,021

WoW: +5,873 (+8.1%)

Swap Dealer Net

+37,173

WoW: -5,158 (-12.2%)

52-wk Percentile

38.5%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

68.6%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

0.64

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

+0.04%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

47.6%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongClassic SetupMM Long Concentration: 72.3%

Price Context

Price is in the upper half of its range (75%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (69th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

Report Date Price

3.83

-0.1041 (-2.64%) WoW

52-Week Range

1.99

4.43

75%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.04%

Win Rate

47.6%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 19+2.85% (60%)

Week 9+2.62% (62%)

Week 23+2.22% (65%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 18-2.30% (30%)

Week 49-1.72% (35%)

Week 10-1.64% (33%)

Peak demand runs Nov–Mar during the heating season. Refinery maintenance in spring creates a secondary tightness. Summer typically sees seasonal lows.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (69th percentile) while macro is Mixed.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-US buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for energy prices.

Brent-WTI Spread

6.53+1.83 (+38.9%)↑

A widening Brent-WTI spread signals tighter global supply relative to US supply. A narrowing spread suggests US oversupply or weakening global demand.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

High volatility typically accompanies risk-off moves that weigh on industrial energy demand. Stable low volatility supports steady consumption.

US 10Y Yield

4.25-0.06 (-1.5%)↓

Rising yields reflect growth expectations that support energy demand. Falling yields may signal economic slowdown concerns.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

7.2%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

94.2%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

84.8%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 6.7%WoW: +2,329 (+14.2%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 0.89

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

876

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

869

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

1.01

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

37.1%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

0.64

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

68.6%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

50.5%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

7.6%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+16,745	-67,021	+37,173	259,082	38.5%	68.6%	0.64	-1,317 (-7.3%)
2026-04-07	+18,062	-72,894	+42,331	245,616	40.4%	70.5%	0.71	-1,645 (-8.3%)
2026-03-31	+19,707	-71,789	+41,455	250,551	46.2%	73.3%	0.79	+1,082 (+5.8%)
2026-03-24	+18,625	-75,758	+45,086	275,128	46.2%	73.3%	0.75	-4,781 (-20.4%)
2026-03-17	+23,406	-82,704	+43,507	285,275	63.5%	81.9%	0.98	+3,630 (+18.4%)
2026-03-10	+19,776	-84,199	+46,331	304,224	50.0%	75.2%	0.82	-2,926 (-12.9%)
2026-03-03	+22,702	-96,672	+52,740	325,938	63.5%	81.9%	0.96	+178 (+0.8%)
2026-02-24	+22,524	-101,396	+60,528	378,635	63.5%	81.0%	0.95	+9,932 (+78.9%)
2026-02-17	+12,592	-98,191	+62,390	394,972	44.2%	68.6%	0.48	-7,723 (-38.0%)
2026-02-10	+20,315	-103,800	+64,678	378,033	57.7%	76.2%	0.83	-4,010 (-16.5%)
2026-02-03	+24,325	-110,219	+66,131	384,174	67.3%	81.9%	1.03	+13,713 (+129.2%)
2026-01-27	+10,612	-112,735	+71,777	400,218	38.5%	61.0%	0.38	+11,722 (+1056.0%)
2026-01-20	-1,110	-106,711	+74,594	412,974	21.2%	41.0%	-0.17	+4,832 (+81.3%)
2026-01-13	-5,942	-100,302	+73,996	381,401	15.4%	35.2%	-0.41	-6,519 (-1129.8%)
2026-01-06	+577	-96,447	+69,163	363,276	23.1%	42.9%	-0.12	-3,050 (-84.1%)
2025-12-30	+3,627	-100,057	+68,018	353,481	32.7%	50.5%	0.02	+447 (+14.1%)
2025-12-23	+3,180	-97,429	+67,508	360,436	28.8%	44.8%	-0.01	-9,346 (-74.6%)
2025-12-16	+12,526	-98,535	+62,180	364,343	46.2%	61.9%	0.41	-7,259 (-36.7%)
2025-12-09	+19,785	-99,550	+56,121	370,784	59.6%	74.3%	0.75	-1,230 (-5.9%)
2025-12-02	+21,015	-107,557	+55,551	361,751	61.5%	74.3%	0.80	-771 (-3.5%)
2025-11-25	+21,786	-97,536	+56,510	356,805	65.4%	75.2%	0.82	-15,829 (-42.1%)
2025-11-18	+37,615	-114,193	+55,822	402,936	92.3%	96.2%	1.53	+157 (+0.4%)
2025-11-10	+37,458	-115,348	+51,318	382,206	92.3%	96.2%	1.53	+5,369 (+16.7%)
2025-11-04	+32,089	-114,117	+56,766	376,492	84.6%	89.5%	1.29	+6,296 (+24.4%)
2025-10-28	+25,793	-105,752	+59,612	385,034	75.0%	81.0%	1.00	+14,229 (+123.0%)
2025-10-21	+11,564	-94,977	+63,465	408,678	55.8%	59.0%	0.35	-292 (-2.5%)
2025-10-14	+11,856	-95,266	+62,233	420,147	57.7%	59.0%	0.35	-6,441 (-35.2%)
2025-10-07	+18,297	-100,958	+63,004	410,343	71.2%	68.6%	0.63	-14,168 (-43.6%)
2025-09-30	+32,465	-108,121	+58,471	416,527	88.5%	88.6%	1.24	+10,954 (+50.9%)
2025-09-23	+21,511	-102,265	+61,609	425,591	75.0%	71.4%	0.75	-2,544 (-10.6%)
2025-09-16	+24,055	-107,635	+61,895	410,850	76.9%	74.3%	0.85	-1,750 (-6.8%)
2025-09-09	+25,805	-108,548	+63,061	396,687	78.8%	76.2%	0.92	-13,240 (-33.9%)
2025-09-02	+39,045	-115,562	+61,872	377,552	96.2%	97.1%	1.48	+5,940 (+17.9%)
2025-08-26	+33,105	-107,082	+61,120	378,648	94.2%	88.6%	1.23	+693 (+2.1%)
2025-08-19	+32,412	-101,549	+62,747	382,074	92.3%	83.8%	1.19	+4,642 (+16.7%)
2025-08-12	+27,770	-99,895	+61,374	380,173	92.3%	80.0%	0.99	+871 (+3.2%)
2025-08-05	+26,899	-95,218	+58,347	369,481	88.5%	77.1%	0.95	-14,307 (-34.7%)
2025-07-29	+41,206	-106,820	+56,743	375,269	100.0%	100.0%	1.56	+2,261 (+5.8%)
2025-07-22	+38,945	-101,647	+54,986	384,477	98.1%	98.1%	1.49	-1,659 (-4.1%)
2025-07-15	+40,604	-104,770	+55,831	370,715	100.0%	100.0%	1.58	+7,555 (+22.9%)
2025-07-08	+33,049	-105,026	+58,014	367,229	100.0%	89.5%	1.27	+5,800 (+21.3%)
2025-07-01	+27,249	-104,727	+63,763	344,106	98.1%	81.0%	1.02	-85 (-0.3%)
2025-06-24	+27,334	-101,062	+65,962	317,332	100.0%	81.9%	1.03	+14,547 (+113.8%)
2025-06-17	+12,787	-94,113	+69,870	333,079	92.3%	61.0%	0.39	-2,774 (-17.8%)
2025-06-10	+15,561	-93,017	+73,000	353,463	98.1%	63.8%	0.51	+9,792 (+169.7%)
2025-06-03	+5,769	-77,962	+73,344	357,904	88.5%	50.5%	0.07	-2,484 (-30.1%)
2025-05-27	+8,253	-79,507	+72,280	362,143	92.3%	53.3%	0.18	+5,556 (+206.0%)
2025-05-20	+2,697	-78,637	+72,566	367,119	84.6%	42.9%	-0.07	+19,848 (+115.7%)
2025-05-13	-17,151	-63,086	+75,815	360,877	42.3%	21.0%	-0.96	+3,068 (+15.2%)
2025-05-06	-20,219	-49,459	+77,039	367,827	34.6%	17.1%	-1.11	-10,063 (-99.1%)
2025-04-29	-10,156	-62,812	+77,475	359,301	57.7%	28.6%	-0.67	+920 (+8.3%)
2025-04-22	-11,076	-68,760	+75,935	364,149	51.9%	25.7%	-0.72	-2,857 (-34.8%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantSwap DealersNonreportableManaged MoneyOther Reportables