Lean Hogs

Bullish Signal

livestock · Last COT: 2026-06-09

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Price

92.53

-0.2500 (-0.3%)

52-wk Range

42%

77.80 — 113.25

Managed Money Net

-24,461

WoW: -4,612 (-23.2%)

Producer Net

-28,885

WoW: +4,565 (+13.6%)

Swap Dealer Net

+70,575

WoW: -2,575 (-3.5%)

CIT Net

+78,231

WoW: -4,070 (-4.9%)

52-wk Percentile

1.9%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

1.0%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-2.27

Crowd Risk

Bullish Signal

Seasonal Ret

+1.07%

Week 24 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

61.9%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongNeutralMM Long Concentration: 40.2%

Price Context

Price is in the lower half of its range (42%) with moderate-to-bearish positioning (1th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

Report Date Price

92.78

-2.53 (-2.65%) WoW

52-Week Range

77.80

113.25

42%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (24)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+1.07%

Win Rate

61.9%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 16+8.91% (86%)

Week 7+4.70% (67%)

Week 51+3.68% (85%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 33-11.78% (20%)

Week 42-7.44% (20%)

Week 34-2.56% (25%)

Pork demand peaks around summer grilling (May–Jul) and year-end holidays. Spring oversupply from winter farrowings can pressure prices in Q1.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year low (1th percentile — bullish contrarian) while macro is Mixed.

Corn Price

412.75+1.00 (+0.2%)↑

Rising corn prices increase feed costs for cattle and hog producers, squeezing margins and potentially reducing supply long-term.

Feeder/Live Spread

107.55-0.63 (-0.6%)↓

A widening feeder-to-live cattle spread signals improving feedlot margins. A narrowing spread suggests margin pressure.

DXY (USD Index)

99.75-0.11 (-0.1%)↓

A stronger dollar makes US meat exports less competitive globally. A weaker dollar supports export demand for livestock products.

VIX

17.68-1.76 (-9.1%)↓

Elevated volatility can disrupt supply chains and consumer spending patterns, creating uncertainty for livestock markets.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

17.5%

High

Producer 52-wk %ile

100.0%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

100.0%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:NoiseSpread percentile: 91.4%WoW: -3,613 (-6.2%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 2.23Smart/Dumb Money Divergence — follow specs, fade retail

Concentration Risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

1,096

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

1,055

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

1.04

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

29.5%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Confirmed

Raw Z-Score

-2.27

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

1.0%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

1.9%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

97.1%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-06-09	-24,461	-28,885	+70,575	+78,231	311,971	1.9%	1.0%	-2.27	-4,612 (-23.2%)
2026-06-02	-19,849	-33,450	+73,150	+82,301	322,263	1.9%	1.0%	-2.22	-21,281 (-1486.1%)
2026-05-26	+1,432	-47,176	+72,729	+87,551	326,000	1.9%	7.6%	-1.78	-21,378 (-93.7%)
2026-05-19	+22,810	-59,449	+69,677	+86,731	326,378	1.9%	12.4%	-1.32	-6,401 (-21.9%)
2026-05-12	+29,211	-62,261	+67,616	+86,864	321,286	1.9%	12.4%	-1.19	-9,476 (-24.5%)
2026-05-05	+38,687	-68,195	+65,306	+87,300	316,426	3.8%	17.1%	-0.98	-7,415 (-16.1%)
2026-04-28	+46,102	-78,055	+65,880	+86,875	316,938	7.7%	22.9%	-0.82	-8,774 (-16.0%)
2026-04-21	+54,876	-85,807	+66,055	+87,763	311,272	9.6%	27.6%	-0.62	-23,155 (-29.7%)
2026-04-14	+78,031	-95,602	+64,345	+91,054	328,732	26.9%	40.0%	-0.07	-10,695 (-12.1%)
2026-04-07	+88,726	-105,007	+64,737	+95,120	330,222	36.5%	49.5%	0.19	+3,204 (+3.7%)
2026-03-31	+85,522	-103,617	+66,575	+97,262	329,500	34.6%	45.7%	0.12	-8,248 (-8.8%)
2026-03-24	+93,770	-109,378	+69,248	+98,323	337,624	44.2%	59.0%	0.33	-15,966 (-14.5%)
2026-03-17	+109,736	-124,114	+70,215	+104,004	359,264	61.5%	72.4%	0.72	-10,874 (-9.0%)
2026-03-10	+120,610	-135,634	+69,951	+101,211	372,459	76.9%	82.9%	1.00	+3,009 (+2.6%)
2026-03-03	+117,601	-135,894	+70,594	+103,894	376,669	75.0%	81.0%	0.94	+6,468 (+5.8%)
2026-02-24	+111,133	-134,496	+75,504	+108,561	366,573	67.3%	75.2%	0.80	-85 (-0.1%)
2026-02-17	+111,218	-127,037	+70,010	+108,452	371,449	67.3%	76.2%	0.82	-17,245 (-13.4%)
2026-02-10	+128,463	-142,547	+68,332	+109,298	383,680	84.6%	89.5%	1.25	+5,067 (+4.1%)
2026-02-03	+123,396	-138,613	+68,039	+109,743	375,763	80.8%	86.7%	1.15	+13,859 (+12.7%)
2026-01-27	+109,537	-128,187	+70,563	+116,229	357,214	71.2%	78.1%	0.84	+17,321 (+18.8%)
2026-01-20	+92,216	-121,017	+71,969	+117,833	333,416	53.8%	63.8%	0.44	+13,558 (+17.2%)
2026-01-13	+78,658	-106,230	+71,053	+115,094	304,725	40.4%	54.3%	0.14	+261 (+0.3%)
2026-01-06	+78,397	-100,600	+65,619	+110,057	303,764	38.5%	54.3%	0.15	+2,090 (+2.7%)
2025-12-30	+76,307	-96,226	+62,295	+106,375	295,500	34.6%	52.4%	0.12	+4,130 (+5.7%)
2025-12-23	+72,177	-94,761	+62,945	+106,116	288,934	30.8%	50.5%	0.04	+12,164 (+20.3%)
2025-12-16	+60,013	-88,235	+61,657	+104,177	290,827	25.0%	41.9%	-0.20	+17,153 (+40.0%)
2025-12-09	+42,860	-76,231	+61,493	+100,926	301,110	9.6%	30.5%	-0.55	+5,971 (+16.2%)
2025-12-02	+36,889	-75,982	+59,776	+99,928	306,231	3.8%	26.7%	-0.66	-4,985 (-11.9%)
2025-11-25	+41,874	-75,629	+56,418	+100,087	308,325	5.8%	29.5%	-0.54	-8,738 (-17.3%)
2025-11-18	+50,612	-79,466	+54,721	+99,473	313,263	9.6%	36.2%	-0.35	-21,604 (-29.9%)
2025-11-04	+72,216	-104,601	+52,268	+103,127	331,800	21.2%	51.4%	0.11	-19,898 (-21.6%)
2025-10-28	+92,114	-115,115	+50,324	+107,249	336,308	32.7%	63.8%	0.53	-23,525 (-20.3%)
2025-10-21	+115,639	-126,810	+50,897	+108,869	335,180	63.5%	81.9%	1.03	-13,472 (-10.4%)
2025-10-14	+129,111	-133,283	+50,505	+109,998	348,658	80.8%	90.5%	1.32	-11,949 (-8.5%)
2025-10-07	+141,060	-140,819	+50,708	+111,147	361,635	98.1%	99.0%	1.59	-3,894 (-2.7%)
2025-09-30	+144,954	-147,961	+51,100	+109,937	376,558	100.0%	100.0%	1.71	+4,851 (+3.5%)
2025-09-23	+140,103	-143,316	+51,138	+108,467	380,110	98.1%	99.0%	1.65	-198 (-0.1%)
2025-09-16	+140,301	-138,429	+49,573	+105,881	383,142	100.0%	100.0%	1.70	+9,198 (+7.0%)
2025-09-09	+131,103	-135,079	+49,620	+104,453	373,491	94.2%	97.1%	1.54	+11,767 (+9.9%)
2025-09-02	+119,336	-130,681	+51,506	+103,048	363,921	80.8%	90.5%	1.32	+10,270 (+9.4%)
2025-08-26	+109,066	-123,517	+51,853	+100,498	342,352	71.2%	85.7%	1.13	+6,472 (+6.3%)
2025-08-19	+102,594	-117,999	+53,876	+102,031	331,110	59.6%	80.0%	1.01	-3,237 (-3.1%)
2025-08-12	+105,831	-121,230	+52,188	+101,157	341,165	67.3%	83.8%	1.10	+1,702 (+1.6%)
2025-08-05	+104,129	-122,360	+54,007	+103,386	339,993	65.4%	82.9%	1.08	-624 (-0.6%)
2025-07-29	+104,753	-122,558	+53,685	+102,237	337,209	67.3%	83.8%	1.12	-2,426 (-2.3%)
2025-07-22	+107,179	-123,692	+53,357	+100,226	333,746	71.2%	85.7%	1.19	-6,829 (-6.0%)
2025-07-15	+114,008	-129,366	+52,349	+100,025	351,417	76.9%	88.6%	1.37	-14,390 (-11.2%)
2025-07-08	+128,398	-136,458	+52,207	+101,126	361,898	90.4%	95.2%	1.72	-3,062 (-2.3%)
2025-07-01	+131,460	-139,931	+52,367	+100,898	369,170	96.2%	98.1%	1.83	+612 (+0.5%)
2025-06-24	+130,848	-140,791	+53,229	+100,317	375,334	96.2%	98.1%	1.87	+5,608 (+4.5%)
2025-06-17	+125,240	-144,112	+54,827	+100,892	380,203	92.3%	96.2%	1.79	+12,442 (+11.0%)
2025-06-10	+112,798	-130,799	+55,084	+98,759	364,480	84.6%	92.4%	1.54	+15,769 (+16.3%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersProducer / MerchantManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportable