Lean Hogs

Liquidation Risk

livestock · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

93.40

-0.6500 (-0.7%)

52-wk Range

46%

77.80 — 113.25

Managed Money Net

+78,031

WoW: -10,695 (-12.1%)

Producer Net

-95,602

WoW: +9,405 (+9.0%)

Swap Dealer Net

+64,345

WoW: -392 (-0.6%)

CIT Net

+91,054

WoW: -4,066 (-4.3%)

52-wk Percentile

26.9%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

40.0%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-0.07

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+8.91%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

85.7%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Strong

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 80.1%

Price Context

Price is in the lower half of its range (46%) with moderate-to-bearish positioning (40th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

Report Date Price

94.05

+3.38 (+3.72%) WoW

52-Week Range

77.80

113.25

46%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

✅ Strong

Avg Return

+8.91%

Win Rate

85.7%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 16+8.91% (86%)

Week 7+4.70% (67%)

Week 20+3.84% (75%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 33-11.78% (20%)

Week 42-7.44% (20%)

Week 34-2.56% (25%)

Pork demand peaks around summer grilling (May–Jul) and year-end holidays. Spring oversupply from winter farrowings can pressure prices in Q1.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (40th percentile) while macro is Supportive.

Corn Price

448.75+0.25 (+0.1%)↑

Rising corn prices increase feed costs for cattle and hog producers, squeezing margins and potentially reducing supply long-term.

Feeder/Live Spread

121.38-1.40 (-1.1%)↓

A widening feeder-to-live cattle spread signals improving feedlot margins. A narrowing spread suggests margin pressure.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A stronger dollar makes US meat exports less competitive globally. A weaker dollar supports export demand for livestock products.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated volatility can disrupt supply chains and consumer spending patterns, creating uncertainty for livestock markets.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

16.9%

High

Producer 52-wk %ile

80.8%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

62.9%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:LowSpread percentile: 87.6%WoW: +1,983 (+3.7%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: -0.38

Concentration Risk

Concentration building — increasing blow-up risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

1,422

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

717

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

1.98

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

76.2%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

-0.07

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

40.0%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

43.8%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

76.2%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+78,031	-95,602	+64,345	+91,054	328,732	26.9%	40.0%	-0.07	-10,695 (-12.1%)
2026-04-07	+88,726	-105,007	+64,737	+95,120	330,222	36.5%	49.5%	0.19	+3,204 (+3.7%)
2026-03-31	+85,522	-103,617	+66,575	+97,262	329,500	34.6%	45.7%	0.12	-8,248 (-8.8%)
2026-03-24	+93,770	-109,378	+69,248	+98,323	337,624	44.2%	59.0%	0.33	-15,966 (-14.5%)
2026-03-17	+109,736	-124,114	+70,215	+104,004	359,264	61.5%	72.4%	0.72	-10,874 (-9.0%)
2026-03-10	+120,610	-135,634	+69,951	+101,211	372,459	76.9%	82.9%	1.00	+3,009 (+2.6%)
2026-03-03	+117,601	-135,894	+70,594	+103,894	376,669	75.0%	81.0%	0.94	+6,468 (+5.8%)
2026-02-24	+111,133	-134,496	+75,504	+108,561	366,573	67.3%	75.2%	0.80	-85 (-0.1%)
2026-02-17	+111,218	-127,037	+70,010	+108,452	371,449	67.3%	76.2%	0.82	-17,245 (-13.4%)
2026-02-10	+128,463	-142,547	+68,332	+109,298	383,680	84.6%	89.5%	1.25	+5,067 (+4.1%)
2026-02-03	+123,396	-138,613	+68,039	+109,743	375,763	80.8%	86.7%	1.15	+13,859 (+12.7%)
2026-01-27	+109,537	-128,187	+70,563	+116,229	357,214	71.2%	78.1%	0.84	+17,321 (+18.8%)
2026-01-20	+92,216	-121,017	+71,969	+117,833	333,416	53.8%	63.8%	0.44	+13,558 (+17.2%)
2026-01-13	+78,658	-106,230	+71,053	+115,094	304,725	40.4%	54.3%	0.14	+261 (+0.3%)
2026-01-06	+78,397	-100,600	+65,619	+110,057	303,764	38.5%	54.3%	0.15	+2,090 (+2.7%)
2025-12-30	+76,307	-96,226	+62,295	+106,375	295,500	34.6%	52.4%	0.12	+4,130 (+5.7%)
2025-12-23	+72,177	-94,761	+62,945	+106,116	288,934	30.8%	50.5%	0.04	+12,164 (+20.3%)
2025-12-16	+60,013	-88,235	+61,657	+104,177	290,827	25.0%	41.9%	-0.20	+17,153 (+40.0%)
2025-12-09	+42,860	-76,231	+61,493	+100,926	301,110	9.6%	30.5%	-0.55	+5,971 (+16.2%)
2025-12-02	+36,889	-75,982	+59,776	+99,928	306,231	3.8%	26.7%	-0.66	-4,985 (-11.9%)
2025-11-25	+41,874	-75,629	+56,418	+100,087	308,325	5.8%	29.5%	-0.54	-8,738 (-17.3%)
2025-11-18	+50,612	-79,466	+54,721	+99,473	313,263	9.6%	36.2%	-0.35	-21,604 (-29.9%)
2025-11-04	+72,216	-104,601	+52,268	+103,127	331,800	21.2%	51.4%	0.11	-19,898 (-21.6%)
2025-10-28	+92,114	-115,115	+50,324	+107,249	336,308	32.7%	63.8%	0.53	-23,525 (-20.3%)
2025-10-21	+115,639	-126,810	+50,897	+108,869	335,180	63.5%	81.9%	1.03	-13,472 (-10.4%)
2025-10-14	+129,111	-133,283	+50,505	+109,998	348,658	80.8%	90.5%	1.32	-11,949 (-8.5%)
2025-10-07	+141,060	-140,819	+50,708	+111,147	361,635	98.1%	99.0%	1.59	-3,894 (-2.7%)
2025-09-30	+144,954	-147,961	+51,100	+109,937	376,558	100.0%	100.0%	1.71	+4,851 (+3.5%)
2025-09-23	+140,103	-143,316	+51,138	+108,467	380,110	98.1%	99.0%	1.65	-198 (-0.1%)
2025-09-16	+140,301	-138,429	+49,573	+105,881	383,142	100.0%	100.0%	1.70	+9,198 (+7.0%)
2025-09-09	+131,103	-135,079	+49,620	+104,453	373,491	94.2%	97.1%	1.54	+11,767 (+9.9%)
2025-09-02	+119,336	-130,681	+51,506	+103,048	363,921	80.8%	90.5%	1.32	+10,270 (+9.4%)
2025-08-26	+109,066	-123,517	+51,853	+100,498	342,352	71.2%	85.7%	1.13	+6,472 (+6.3%)
2025-08-19	+102,594	-117,999	+53,876	+102,031	331,110	59.6%	80.0%	1.01	-3,237 (-3.1%)
2025-08-12	+105,831	-121,230	+52,188	+101,157	341,165	67.3%	83.8%	1.10	+1,702 (+1.6%)
2025-08-05	+104,129	-122,360	+54,007	+103,386	339,993	65.4%	82.9%	1.08	-624 (-0.6%)
2025-07-29	+104,753	-122,558	+53,685	+102,237	337,209	67.3%	83.8%	1.12	-2,426 (-2.3%)
2025-07-22	+107,179	-123,692	+53,357	+100,226	333,746	71.2%	85.7%	1.19	-6,829 (-6.0%)
2025-07-15	+114,008	-129,366	+52,349	+100,025	351,417	76.9%	88.6%	1.37	-14,390 (-11.2%)
2025-07-08	+128,398	-136,458	+52,207	+101,126	361,898	90.4%	95.2%	1.72	-3,062 (-2.3%)
2025-07-01	+131,460	-139,931	+52,367	+100,898	369,170	96.2%	98.1%	1.83	+612 (+0.5%)
2025-06-24	+130,848	-140,791	+53,229	+100,317	375,334	96.2%	98.1%	1.87	+5,608 (+4.5%)
2025-06-17	+125,240	-144,112	+54,827	+100,892	380,203	92.3%	96.2%	1.79	+12,442 (+11.0%)
2025-06-10	+112,798	-130,799	+55,084	+98,759	364,480	84.6%	92.4%	1.54	+15,769 (+16.3%)
2025-06-03	+97,029	-119,123	+56,721	+98,900	347,580	75.0%	87.6%	1.19	+6,243 (+6.9%)
2025-05-27	+90,786	-110,217	+55,565	+97,655	315,752	69.2%	82.9%	1.07	+2,979 (+3.4%)
2025-05-20	+87,807	-108,388	+57,703	+98,187	308,282	63.5%	79.0%	1.02	+9,828 (+12.6%)
2025-05-13	+77,979	-101,368	+57,255	+96,851	289,309	59.6%	76.2%	0.81	+8,728 (+12.6%)
2025-05-06	+69,251	-91,946	+56,983	+96,152	269,286	59.6%	75.2%	0.63	+3,621 (+5.5%)
2025-04-29	+65,630	-90,886	+56,352	+91,565	271,636	57.7%	74.3%	0.57	+9,941 (+17.9%)
2025-04-22	+55,689	-87,155	+57,546	+87,943	261,166	48.1%	65.7%	0.36	+17,974 (+47.7%)
2025-04-15	+37,715	-74,166	+57,145	+90,983	258,083	30.8%	55.2%	-0.02	+3,718 (+10.9%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersOther ReportablesNonreportable