Live Cattle

Short Squeeze

livestock · Last COT: 2026-08-25

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Live Cattle futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is low versus the last two years (7th percentile).

Crowd risk

Short Squeeze

Gross long exposure is not at the dashboard's concentration threshold.

Price context

Price sits 13% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Neutral seasonal bias for week 35. Macro is mixed.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

211.73

As of 2026-08-28 · -8.57 (-3.9%)

52-wk Range

13%

214.45 — 258.48

Managed Money Net

+59,729

WoW: -3,238 (-5.1%)

Producer Net

-94,332

WoW: +330 (+0.3%)

Swap Dealer Net

+65,757

WoW: +1,497 (+2.3%)

CIT Net

+68,862

WoW: -834 (-1.2%)

52-wk Percentile

1.9%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

6.7%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-2.00

Crowd Risk

Short Squeeze

Seasonal Ret

+0.13%

Week 35 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

52.4%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 77.4%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week lows (13%) and managed money is heavily short (7th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bearish. Contrarian bounce potential increases at these extremes.

COT Baseline Price

220.30

As of 2026-08-24

-3.05 (-1.37%) WoW

52-Week Range

214.45

258.48

13%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (35)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.13%

Win Rate

52.4%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 53+2.61% (100%)

Week 52+1.83% (80%)

Week 44+1.12% (55%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 18-4.40% (14%)

Week 49-1.16% (30%)

Week 45-0.89% (40%)

Grilling season demand (Apr–Aug) supports cash cattle prices. Fall feedlot placements and lower retail demand post-Labor Day tend to pressure prices.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year low (7th percentile — bullish contrarian) while macro is Mixed.

Corn Price

536.50+26.25 (+5.1%)↑

Rising corn prices increase feed costs for cattle and hog producers, squeezing margins and potentially reducing supply long-term.

Feeder/Live Spread

104.80-8.65 (-7.6%)↓

A widening feeder-to-live cattle spread signals improving feedlot margins. A narrowing spread suggests margin pressure.

DXY (USD Index)

99.68+0.52 (+0.5%)↑

A stronger dollar makes US meat exports less competitive globally. A weaker dollar supports export demand for livestock products.

VIX

14.43-0.08 (-0.6%)↓

Elevated volatility can disrupt supply chains and consumer spending patterns, creating uncertainty for livestock markets.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-08-25	+59,729	-94,332	+65,757	+68,862	288,743	1.9%	6.7%	-2.00	-3,238 (-5.1%)
2026-08-18	+62,967	-94,662	+64,260	+69,696	280,826	1.9%	7.6%	-1.85	-2,982 (-4.5%)
2026-08-11	+65,949	-98,530	+63,369	+70,144	276,625	3.8%	9.5%	-1.72	+983 (+1.5%)
2026-08-04	+64,966	-96,909	+61,170	+68,284	291,760	1.9%	8.6%	-1.78	-2,059 (-3.1%)
2026-07-28	+67,025	-98,985	+61,596	+67,413	298,449	1.9%	9.5%	-1.70	-8,656 (-11.4%)
2026-07-21	+75,681	-112,021	+63,096	+67,484	303,089	1.9%	11.4%	-1.36	-22,454 (-22.9%)
2026-07-14	+98,135	-121,261	+59,937	+68,085	311,766	17.3%	23.8%	-0.48	-16,773 (-14.6%)
2026-07-07	+114,908	-129,405	+58,512	+69,986	316,893	42.3%	43.8%	0.19	-4,532 (-3.8%)
2026-06-30	+119,440	-134,849	+57,342	+75,868	319,572	50.0%	52.4%	0.38	-6,143 (-4.9%)
2026-06-23	+125,583	-141,088	+56,630	+79,832	328,903	76.9%	71.4%	0.62	+2,778 (+2.3%)
2026-06-16	+122,805	-138,731	+56,633	+80,260	329,990	67.3%	64.8%	0.53	+13,733 (+12.6%)
2026-06-09	+109,072	-128,829	+57,191	+79,004	317,380	32.7%	40.0%	0.05	-7,035 (-6.1%)
2026-06-02	+116,107	-122,247	+55,581	+78,019	343,287	44.2%	50.5%	0.32	-4,435 (-3.7%)
2026-05-26	+120,542	-130,707	+55,374	+81,533	349,927	53.8%	60.0%	0.49	-7,205 (-5.6%)
2026-05-19	+127,747	-137,937	+59,639	+79,583	364,542	84.6%	80.0%	0.75	-1,207 (-0.9%)
2026-05-12	+128,954	-137,390	+59,613	+77,659	354,995	86.5%	82.9%	0.80	-9,064 (-6.6%)
2026-05-05	+138,018	-148,667	+59,631	+78,101	360,025	100.0%	94.3%	1.11	+6,458 (+4.9%)
2026-04-28	+131,560	-147,164	+60,685	+78,935	350,035	94.2%	87.6%	0.92	-1,256 (-0.9%)
2026-04-21	+132,816	-146,931	+60,819	+79,502	339,003	98.1%	90.5%	0.97	-23 (-0.0%)
2026-04-14	+132,839	-151,522	+60,398	+78,623	340,989	100.0%	91.4%	0.99	+3,423 (+2.6%)
2026-04-07	+129,416	-147,290	+59,514	+78,901	343,368	96.2%	87.6%	0.90	+9,863 (+8.2%)
2026-03-31	+119,553	-133,718	+56,184	+76,881	339,048	51.9%	62.9%	0.61	+11,960 (+11.1%)
2026-03-24	+107,593	-124,859	+55,661	+77,208	334,831	32.7%	49.5%	0.25	+4,450 (+4.3%)
2026-03-17	+103,143	-123,957	+58,686	+80,876	334,142	21.2%	43.8%	0.12	-2,767 (-2.6%)
2026-03-10	+105,910	-126,384	+58,338	+84,100	334,594	25.0%	46.7%	0.22	-6,134 (-5.5%)
2026-03-03	+112,044	-134,651	+60,158	+89,235	342,175	34.6%	54.3%	0.42	-4,919 (-4.2%)
2026-02-24	+116,963	-139,589	+62,384	+91,659	341,685	44.2%	60.0%	0.58	+1,911 (+1.7%)
2026-02-17	+115,052	-137,947	+59,594	+90,410	330,128	38.5%	58.1%	0.54	+8,413 (+7.9%)
2026-02-10	+106,639	-132,737	+59,365	+91,364	325,815	25.0%	50.5%	0.30	-5,132 (-4.6%)
2026-02-03	+111,771	-135,174	+55,517	+92,094	336,190	30.8%	55.2%	0.47	+7,372 (+7.1%)
2026-01-27	+104,399	-132,837	+55,311	+95,209	332,214	23.1%	51.4%	0.27	+2,928 (+2.9%)
2026-01-20	+101,471	-134,559	+57,087	+97,795	329,644	19.2%	50.5%	0.21	+1,133 (+1.1%)
2026-01-13	+100,338	-131,724	+57,741	+96,739	324,599	17.3%	48.6%	0.20	+6,611 (+7.1%)
2026-01-06	+93,727	-125,745	+56,850	+97,233	331,020	13.5%	47.6%	0.04	+1,513 (+1.6%)
2025-12-30	+92,214	-121,920	+56,307	+95,903	327,077	9.6%	45.7%	0.02	-1,100 (-1.2%)
2025-12-23	+93,314	-122,404	+56,748	+95,630	326,084	9.6%	47.6%	0.06	+3,727 (+4.2%)
2025-12-16	+89,587	-117,913	+54,726	+94,244	322,316	5.8%	45.7%	-0.02	+3,153 (+3.6%)
2025-12-09	+86,434	-115,751	+53,777	+93,775	318,509	3.8%	44.8%	-0.08	+4,598 (+5.6%)
2025-12-02	+81,836	-111,217	+48,755	+91,891	331,171	1.9%	44.8%	-0.18	-9,432 (-10.3%)
2025-11-25	+91,268	-116,070	+46,032	+92,615	332,580	1.9%	46.7%	0.06	-4,759 (-5.0%)
2025-11-18	+96,027	-116,247	+45,455	+92,815	333,615	1.9%	48.6%	0.19	-11,473 (-10.7%)
2025-11-04	+107,500	-122,060	+40,830	+91,798	341,083	5.8%	53.3%	0.48	-7,639 (-6.6%)
2025-10-28	+115,139	-130,579	+39,158	+91,260	343,707	17.3%	59.0%	0.68	-6,333 (-5.2%)
2025-10-21	+121,472	-133,662	+36,493	+91,507	362,689	38.5%	69.5%	0.84	+1,248 (+1.0%)
2025-10-14	+120,224	-136,387	+38,096	+92,609	366,119	32.7%	66.7%	0.83	+6,625 (+5.8%)
2025-10-07	+113,599	-127,421	+39,972	+93,297	366,696	21.2%	61.0%	0.67	+1,168 (+1.0%)
2025-09-30	+112,431	-124,137	+39,873	+95,725	375,602	21.2%	61.0%	0.65	-8,639 (-7.1%)
2025-09-23	+121,070	-125,635	+40,075	+94,279	386,579	36.5%	68.6%	0.87	-2,680 (-2.2%)
2025-09-16	+123,750	-124,648	+41,300	+94,806	390,028	48.1%	74.3%	0.94	-3,522 (-2.8%)
2025-09-09	+127,272	-127,553	+40,713	+95,018	384,954	67.3%	83.8%	1.04	+742 (+0.6%)
2025-09-02	+126,530	-131,832	+42,314	+95,684	397,430	65.4%	82.9%	1.03	+4,763 (+3.9%)
2025-08-26	+121,767	-130,141	+44,930	+97,043	391,206	46.2%	73.3%	0.92	+1,278 (+1.1%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantSwap DealersManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportable