Live Cattle

Liquidation Risk

livestock · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

249.95

-0.3500 (-0.1%)

52-wk Range

100%

211.10 — 250.30

Managed Money Net

+132,839

WoW: +3,423 (+2.6%)

Producer Net

-151,522

WoW: -4,232 (-2.9%)

Swap Dealer Net

+60,398

WoW: +884 (+1.5%)

CIT Net

+78,623

WoW: -278 (-0.4%)

52-wk Percentile

100.0%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

91.4%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

0.99

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+0.34%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

66.7%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 93.2%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (100%) and managed money is heavily long (91th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

Report Date Price

250.30

+0.5250 (+0.21%) WoW

52-Week Range

211.10

250.30

100%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.34%

Win Rate

66.7%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 53+2.61% (100%)

Week 52+1.83% (80%)

Week 44+1.12% (55%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 18-4.85% (10%)

Week 49-1.16% (30%)

Week 45-0.89% (40%)

Grilling season demand (Apr–Aug) supports cash cattle prices. Fall feedlot placements and lower retail demand post-Labor Day tend to pressure prices.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (91th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Supportive.

Corn Price

448.75+0.25 (+0.1%)↑

Rising corn prices increase feed costs for cattle and hog producers, squeezing margins and potentially reducing supply long-term.

Feeder/Live Spread

121.38-1.40 (-1.1%)↓

A widening feeder-to-live cattle spread signals improving feedlot margins. A narrowing spread suggests margin pressure.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A stronger dollar makes US meat exports less competitive globally. A weaker dollar supports export demand for livestock products.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated volatility can disrupt supply chains and consumer spending patterns, creating uncertainty for livestock markets.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

12.4%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

1.9%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

1.0%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:MediumSpread percentile: 52.4%WoW: -2,927 (-6.5%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Both (Strong)

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 0.46

Concentration Risk

Concentration building — increasing blow-up risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

1,574

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

520

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

3.03

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

90.5%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Confirmed

Raw Z-Score

0.99

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

91.4%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

95.2%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

4.8%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+132,839	-151,522	+60,398	+78,623	340,989	100.0%	91.4%	0.99	+3,423 (+2.6%)
2026-04-07	+129,416	-147,290	+59,514	+78,901	343,368	96.2%	87.6%	0.90	+9,863 (+8.2%)
2026-03-31	+119,553	-133,718	+56,184	+76,881	339,048	51.9%	62.9%	0.61	+11,960 (+11.1%)
2026-03-24	+107,593	-124,859	+55,661	+77,208	334,831	32.7%	49.5%	0.25	+4,450 (+4.3%)
2026-03-17	+103,143	-123,957	+58,686	+80,876	334,142	21.2%	43.8%	0.12	-2,767 (-2.6%)
2026-03-10	+105,910	-126,384	+58,338	+84,100	334,594	25.0%	46.7%	0.22	-6,134 (-5.5%)
2026-03-03	+112,044	-134,651	+60,158	+89,235	342,175	34.6%	54.3%	0.42	-4,919 (-4.2%)
2026-02-24	+116,963	-139,589	+62,384	+91,659	341,685	44.2%	60.0%	0.58	+1,911 (+1.7%)
2026-02-17	+115,052	-137,947	+59,594	+90,410	330,128	38.5%	58.1%	0.54	+8,413 (+7.9%)
2026-02-10	+106,639	-132,737	+59,365	+91,364	325,815	25.0%	50.5%	0.30	-5,132 (-4.6%)
2026-02-03	+111,771	-135,174	+55,517	+92,094	336,190	30.8%	55.2%	0.47	+7,372 (+7.1%)
2026-01-27	+104,399	-132,837	+55,311	+95,209	332,214	23.1%	51.4%	0.27	+2,928 (+2.9%)
2026-01-20	+101,471	-134,559	+57,087	+97,795	329,644	19.2%	50.5%	0.21	+1,133 (+1.1%)
2026-01-13	+100,338	-131,724	+57,741	+96,739	324,599	17.3%	48.6%	0.20	+6,611 (+7.1%)
2026-01-06	+93,727	-125,745	+56,850	+97,233	331,020	13.5%	47.6%	0.04	+1,513 (+1.6%)
2025-12-30	+92,214	-121,920	+56,307	+95,903	327,077	9.6%	45.7%	0.02	-1,100 (-1.2%)
2025-12-23	+93,314	-122,404	+56,748	+95,630	326,084	9.6%	47.6%	0.06	+3,727 (+4.2%)
2025-12-16	+89,587	-117,913	+54,726	+94,244	322,316	5.8%	45.7%	-0.02	+3,153 (+3.6%)
2025-12-09	+86,434	-115,751	+53,777	+93,775	318,509	3.8%	44.8%	-0.08	+4,598 (+5.6%)
2025-12-02	+81,836	-111,217	+48,755	+91,891	331,171	1.9%	44.8%	-0.18	-9,432 (-10.3%)
2025-11-25	+91,268	-116,070	+46,032	+92,615	332,580	1.9%	46.7%	0.06	-4,759 (-5.0%)
2025-11-18	+96,027	-116,247	+45,455	+92,815	333,615	1.9%	48.6%	0.19	-11,473 (-10.7%)
2025-11-04	+107,500	-122,060	+40,830	+91,798	341,083	5.8%	53.3%	0.48	-7,639 (-6.6%)
2025-10-28	+115,139	-130,579	+39,158	+91,260	343,707	17.3%	59.0%	0.68	-6,333 (-5.2%)
2025-10-21	+121,472	-133,662	+36,493	+91,507	362,689	38.5%	69.5%	0.84	+1,248 (+1.0%)
2025-10-14	+120,224	-136,387	+38,096	+92,609	366,119	32.7%	66.7%	0.83	+6,625 (+5.8%)
2025-10-07	+113,599	-127,421	+39,972	+93,297	366,696	21.2%	61.0%	0.67	+1,168 (+1.0%)
2025-09-30	+112,431	-124,137	+39,873	+95,725	375,602	21.2%	61.0%	0.65	-8,639 (-7.1%)
2025-09-23	+121,070	-125,635	+40,075	+94,279	386,579	36.5%	68.6%	0.87	-2,680 (-2.2%)
2025-09-16	+123,750	-124,648	+41,300	+94,806	390,028	48.1%	74.3%	0.94	-3,522 (-2.8%)
2025-09-09	+127,272	-127,553	+40,713	+95,018	384,954	67.3%	83.8%	1.04	+742 (+0.6%)
2025-09-02	+126,530	-131,832	+42,314	+95,684	397,430	65.4%	82.9%	1.03	+4,763 (+3.9%)
2025-08-26	+121,767	-130,141	+44,930	+97,043	391,206	46.2%	73.3%	0.92	+1,278 (+1.1%)
2025-08-19	+120,489	-131,687	+47,105	+98,000	385,029	44.2%	72.4%	0.90	+496 (+0.4%)
2025-08-12	+119,993	-132,074	+48,707	+99,054	382,088	42.3%	71.4%	0.90	-1,474 (-1.2%)
2025-08-05	+121,467	-132,878	+49,149	+98,699	386,905	46.2%	73.3%	0.94	-3,479 (-2.8%)
2025-07-29	+124,946	-131,094	+47,109	+99,936	402,195	59.6%	80.0%	1.04	-1,349 (-1.1%)
2025-07-22	+126,295	-132,857	+46,840	+100,219	403,691	65.4%	82.9%	1.08	-277 (-0.2%)
2025-07-15	+126,572	-128,807	+46,947	+100,647	395,052	67.3%	83.8%	1.10	+2,808 (+2.3%)
2025-07-08	+123,764	-126,083	+47,167	+100,237	389,027	59.6%	80.0%	1.03	+605 (+0.5%)
2025-07-01	+123,159	-130,709	+46,338	+99,861	386,565	57.7%	79.0%	1.02	-4,394 (-3.4%)
2025-06-24	+127,553	-132,933	+45,953	+100,351	386,965	69.2%	84.8%	1.14	-2,752 (-2.1%)
2025-06-17	+130,305	-134,430	+45,863	+99,621	382,318	76.9%	88.6%	1.21	-1,423 (-1.1%)
2025-06-10	+131,728	-139,589	+45,117	+98,028	387,884	80.8%	90.5%	1.26	+6,990 (+5.6%)
2025-06-03	+124,738	-128,364	+45,199	+97,031	410,436	69.2%	84.8%	1.09	+1,087 (+0.9%)
2025-05-27	+123,651	-124,347	+46,818	+98,791	400,447	67.3%	83.8%	1.08	-2,386 (-1.9%)
2025-05-20	+126,037	-127,704	+47,294	+98,228	390,812	73.1%	86.7%	1.15	-1,852 (-1.4%)
2025-05-13	+127,889	-135,811	+47,995	+96,898	379,863	76.9%	88.6%	1.21	+2,278 (+1.8%)
2025-05-06	+125,611	-134,316	+49,373	+96,905	382,737	75.0%	87.6%	1.17	+3,118 (+2.5%)
2025-04-29	+122,493	-133,196	+50,333	+94,981	357,066	73.1%	86.7%	1.09	+7,140 (+6.2%)
2025-04-22	+115,353	-128,571	+50,158	+92,567	341,123	65.4%	81.0%	0.91	+12,089 (+11.7%)
2025-04-15	+103,264	-125,024	+50,273	+92,113	328,396	57.7%	68.6%	0.60	-14,353 (-12.2%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersOther ReportablesNonreportable