Live Cattle

Bullish Signal

livestock · Last COT: 2026-10-13

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Live Cattle futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is low versus the last two years (2th percentile).

Crowd risk

Bullish Signal

Gross long exposure is not at the dashboard's concentration threshold.

Price context

Price sits 26% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Neutral seasonal bias for week 43. Macro is supportive.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

231.15

As of 2026-10-22 · +5.20 (+2.3%)

52-wk Range

26%

214.30 — 258.48

Managed Money Net

+48,218

WoW: -2,477 (-4.9%)

Producer Net

-91,927

WoW: -1,319 (-1.5%)

Swap Dealer Net

+72,362

WoW: +4,655 (+6.9%)

CIT Net

+65,311

WoW: +518 (+0.8%)

52-wk Percentile

3.8%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

1.9%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-2.47

Crowd Risk

Bullish Signal

Seasonal Ret

+0.50%

Week 43 · 20y avg

Seasonal Win%

55.0%

20 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 73.6%

Price Context

Price is in the lower half of its range (26%) with moderate-to-bearish positioning (2th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

COT Baseline Price

225.95

As of 2026-10-12

+4.07 (+1.84%) WoW

52-Week Range

214.30

258.48

26%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (43)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.50%

Win Rate

55.0%(20y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 53+2.61% (100%)

Week 52+1.83% (80%)

Week 44+1.12% (55%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 18-4.40% (14%)

Week 49-1.16% (30%)

Week 45-0.89% (40%)

Grilling season demand (Apr–Aug) supports cash cattle prices. Fall feedlot placements and lower retail demand post-Labor Day tend to pressure prices.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year low (2th percentile — bullish contrarian) while macro is Supportive.

Corn Price

460.25-17.75 (-3.7%)↓

Rising corn prices increase feed costs for cattle and hog producers, squeezing margins and potentially reducing supply long-term.

Feeder/Live Spread

112.72-4.70 (-4.0%)↓

A widening feeder-to-live cattle spread signals improving feedlot margins. A narrowing spread suggests margin pressure.

DXY (USD Index)

101.63-0.37 (-0.4%)↓

A stronger dollar makes US meat exports less competitive globally. A weaker dollar supports export demand for livestock products.

VIX

19.03+2.57 (+15.6%)↑

Elevated volatility can disrupt supply chains and consumer spending patterns, creating uncertainty for livestock markets.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-10-13	+48,218	-91,927	+72,362	+65,311	293,427	3.8%	1.9%	-2.47	-2,477 (-4.9%)
2026-10-06	+50,695	-90,608	+67,707	+64,793	293,647	9.6%	4.8%	-2.42	-2,498 (-4.7%)
2026-09-29	+53,193	-95,274	+65,281	+61,950	293,639	9.6%	4.8%	-2.33	+4,103 (+8.4%)
2026-09-22	+49,090	-87,543	+64,316	+61,080	284,889	7.7%	4.8%	-2.47	+1,394 (+2.9%)
2026-09-15	+47,696	-86,328	+65,224	+63,946	282,118	1.9%	2.9%	-2.52	-1,209 (-2.5%)
2026-09-08	+48,905	-86,862	+65,233	+66,522	294,350	3.8%	4.8%	-2.45	+54 (+0.1%)
2026-09-01	+48,851	-88,111	+68,818	+67,229	300,731	1.9%	4.8%	-2.44	-10,878 (-18.2%)
2026-08-25	+59,729	-94,332	+65,757	+68,862	288,743	1.9%	6.7%	-2.00	-3,238 (-5.1%)
2026-08-18	+62,967	-94,662	+64,260	+69,696	280,826	1.9%	7.6%	-1.85	-2,982 (-4.5%)
2026-08-11	+65,949	-98,530	+63,369	+70,144	276,625	3.8%	9.5%	-1.72	+983 (+1.5%)
2026-08-04	+64,966	-96,909	+61,170	+68,284	291,760	1.9%	8.6%	-1.78	-2,059 (-3.1%)
2026-07-28	+67,025	-98,985	+61,596	+67,413	298,449	1.9%	9.5%	-1.70	-8,656 (-11.4%)
2026-07-21	+75,681	-112,021	+63,096	+67,484	303,089	1.9%	11.4%	-1.36	-22,454 (-22.9%)
2026-07-14	+98,135	-121,261	+59,937	+68,085	311,766	17.3%	23.8%	-0.48	-16,773 (-14.6%)
2026-07-07	+114,908	-129,405	+58,512	+69,986	316,893	42.3%	43.8%	0.19	-4,532 (-3.8%)
2026-06-30	+119,440	-134,849	+57,342	+75,868	319,572	50.0%	52.4%	0.38	-6,143 (-4.9%)
2026-06-23	+125,583	-141,088	+56,630	+79,832	328,903	76.9%	71.4%	0.62	+2,778 (+2.3%)
2026-06-16	+122,805	-138,731	+56,633	+80,260	329,990	67.3%	64.8%	0.53	+13,733 (+12.6%)
2026-06-09	+109,072	-128,829	+57,191	+79,004	317,380	32.7%	40.0%	0.05	-7,035 (-6.1%)
2026-06-02	+116,107	-122,247	+55,581	+78,019	343,287	44.2%	50.5%	0.32	-4,435 (-3.7%)
2026-05-26	+120,542	-130,707	+55,374	+81,533	349,927	53.8%	60.0%	0.49	-7,205 (-5.6%)
2026-05-19	+127,747	-137,937	+59,639	+79,583	364,542	84.6%	80.0%	0.75	-1,207 (-0.9%)
2026-05-12	+128,954	-137,390	+59,613	+77,659	354,995	86.5%	82.9%	0.80	-9,064 (-6.6%)
2026-05-05	+138,018	-148,667	+59,631	+78,101	360,025	100.0%	94.3%	1.11	+6,458 (+4.9%)
2026-04-28	+131,560	-147,164	+60,685	+78,935	350,035	94.2%	87.6%	0.92	-1,256 (-0.9%)
2026-04-21	+132,816	-146,931	+60,819	+79,502	339,003	98.1%	90.5%	0.97	-23 (-0.0%)
2026-04-14	+132,839	-151,522	+60,398	+78,623	340,989	100.0%	91.4%	0.99	+3,423 (+2.6%)
2026-04-07	+129,416	-147,290	+59,514	+78,901	343,368	96.2%	87.6%	0.90	+9,863 (+8.2%)
2026-03-31	+119,553	-133,718	+56,184	+76,881	339,048	51.9%	62.9%	0.61	+11,960 (+11.1%)
2026-03-24	+107,593	-124,859	+55,661	+77,208	334,831	32.7%	49.5%	0.25	+4,450 (+4.3%)
2026-03-17	+103,143	-123,957	+58,686	+80,876	334,142	21.2%	43.8%	0.12	-2,767 (-2.6%)
2026-03-10	+105,910	-126,384	+58,338	+84,100	334,594	25.0%	46.7%	0.22	-6,134 (-5.5%)
2026-03-03	+112,044	-134,651	+60,158	+89,235	342,175	34.6%	54.3%	0.42	-4,919 (-4.2%)
2026-02-24	+116,963	-139,589	+62,384	+91,659	341,685	44.2%	60.0%	0.58	+1,911 (+1.7%)
2026-02-17	+115,052	-137,947	+59,594	+90,410	330,128	38.5%	58.1%	0.54	+8,413 (+7.9%)
2026-02-10	+106,639	-132,737	+59,365	+91,364	325,815	25.0%	50.5%	0.30	-5,132 (-4.6%)
2026-02-03	+111,771	-135,174	+55,517	+92,094	336,190	30.8%	55.2%	0.47	+7,372 (+7.1%)
2026-01-27	+104,399	-132,837	+55,311	+95,209	332,214	23.1%	51.4%	0.27	+2,928 (+2.9%)
2026-01-20	+101,471	-134,559	+57,087	+97,795	329,644	19.2%	50.5%	0.21	+1,133 (+1.1%)
2026-01-13	+100,338	-131,724	+57,741	+96,739	324,599	17.3%	48.6%	0.20	+6,611 (+7.1%)
2026-01-06	+93,727	-125,745	+56,850	+97,233	331,020	13.5%	47.6%	0.04	+1,513 (+1.6%)
2025-12-30	+92,214	-121,920	+56,307	+95,903	327,077	9.6%	45.7%	0.02	-1,100 (-1.2%)
2025-12-23	+93,314	-122,404	+56,748	+95,630	326,084	9.6%	47.6%	0.06	+3,727 (+4.2%)
2025-12-16	+89,587	-117,913	+54,726	+94,244	322,316	5.8%	45.7%	-0.02	+3,153 (+3.6%)
2025-12-09	+86,434	-115,751	+53,777	+93,775	318,509	3.8%	44.8%	-0.08	+4,598 (+5.6%)
2025-12-02	+81,836	-111,217	+48,755	+91,891	331,171	1.9%	44.8%	-0.18	-9,432 (-10.3%)
2025-11-25	+91,268	-116,070	+46,032	+92,615	332,580	1.9%	46.7%	0.06	-4,759 (-5.0%)
2025-11-18	+96,027	-116,247	+45,455	+92,815	333,615	1.9%	48.6%	0.19	-11,473 (-10.7%)
2025-11-04	+107,500	-122,060	+40,830	+91,798	341,083	5.8%	53.3%	0.48	-7,639 (-6.6%)
2025-10-28	+115,139	-130,579	+39,158	+91,260	343,707	17.3%	59.0%	0.68	-6,333 (-5.2%)
2025-10-21	+121,472	-133,662	+36,493	+91,507	362,689	38.5%	69.5%	0.84	+1,248 (+1.0%)
2025-10-14	+120,224	-136,387	+38,096	+92,609	366,119	32.7%	66.7%	0.83	+6,625 (+5.8%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantSwap DealersManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportable