Natural Gas

Neutral

energy · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

2.67

+0.0270 (+1.0%)

52-wk Range

2.65 — 5.29

Managed Money Net

-114,268

WoW: -27,858 (-32.2%)

Producer Net

-10,512

WoW: -1,129 (-12.0%)

Swap Dealer Net

+183,830

WoW: +11,572 (+6.7%)

52-wk Percentile

1.9%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

6.7%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-1.47

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

+1.28%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

61.9%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongNeutralMM Long Concentration: 37.3%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week lows (0%) and managed money is heavily short (7th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bearish. Contrarian bounce potential increases at these extremes.

Report Date Price

2.65

-0.0230 (-0.86%) WoW

52-Week Range

2.65

5.29

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+1.28%

Win Rate

61.9%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 44+6.42% (80%)

Week 53+4.92% (67%)

Week 4+4.85% (52%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 5-7.12% (19%)

Week 49-3.48% (25%)

Week 50-3.46% (25%)

Injection season (Apr–Oct) typically suppresses prices as storage builds. Withdrawal season (Nov–Mar) supports prices, especially during cold snaps.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year low (7th percentile — bullish contrarian) while macro is Mixed.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-US buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for energy prices.

Brent-WTI Spread

6.53+1.83 (+38.9%)↑

A widening Brent-WTI spread signals tighter global supply relative to US supply. A narrowing spread suggests US oversupply or weakening global demand.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

High volatility typically accompanies risk-off moves that weigh on industrial energy demand. Stable low volatility supports steady consumption.

US 10Y Yield

4.25-0.06 (-1.5%)↓

Rising yields reflect growth expectations that support energy demand. Falling yields may signal economic slowdown concerns.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

34.5%

High

Producer 52-wk %ile

50.0%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

75.2%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:MediumSpread percentile: 65.7%WoW: -3,244 (-0.6%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 0.45

Concentration Risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

3,166

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

4,701

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

0.67

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

66.7%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Partial

Raw Z-Score

-1.47

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

6.7%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

19.0%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

83.8%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	-114,268	-10,512	+183,830	1,599,878	1.9%	6.7%	-1.47	-27,858 (-32.2%)
2026-04-07	-86,410	-9,383	+172,258	1,570,957	7.7%	12.4%	-0.96	-18,388 (-27.0%)
2026-03-31	-68,022	-17,201	+166,282	1,525,975	19.2%	23.8%	-0.62	-13,493 (-24.7%)
2026-03-24	-54,529	-10,981	+165,516	1,520,594	36.5%	39.0%	-0.36	-9,929 (-22.3%)
2026-03-17	-44,600	-4,121	+162,243	1,577,306	50.0%	49.5%	-0.17	+17,974 (+28.7%)
2026-03-10	-62,574	+8,267	+156,384	1,584,208	28.8%	32.4%	-0.49	+13,336 (+17.6%)
2026-03-03	-75,910	+18,409	+166,400	1,621,447	13.5%	21.9%	-0.73	-204 (-0.3%)
2026-02-24	-75,706	+30,284	+153,807	1,630,910	13.5%	22.9%	-0.71	-48,866 (-182.1%)
2026-02-17	-26,840	+35,542	+140,604	1,633,915	69.2%	65.7%	0.19	-18,712 (-230.2%)
2026-02-10	-8,128	+27,370	+132,661	1,643,074	80.8%	76.2%	0.54	-8,234 (-7767.9%)
2026-02-03	+106	+36,460	+127,149	1,676,452	80.8%	79.0%	0.69	+22,076 (+100.5%)
2026-01-27	-21,970	+25,713	+126,570	1,646,811	75.0%	71.4%	0.32	+55,044 (+71.5%)
2026-01-20	-77,014	+17,511	+164,660	1,636,626	11.5%	24.8%	-0.65	+27,035 (+26.0%)
2026-01-13	-104,049	+8,417	+166,292	1,652,342	3.8%	11.4%	-1.14	-3,875 (-3.9%)
2026-01-06	-100,174	+6,711	+149,175	1,610,205	3.8%	12.4%	-1.08	-16,444 (-19.6%)
2025-12-30	-83,730	-5,162	+150,308	1,545,577	5.8%	19.0%	-0.80	+22,176 (+20.9%)
2025-12-23	-105,906	-364	+149,046	1,575,569	1.9%	10.5%	-1.19	-40,184 (-61.1%)
2025-12-16	-65,722	-14,564	+132,829	1,592,965	5.8%	29.5%	-0.47	-34,860 (-113.0%)
2025-12-09	-30,862	-44,259	+129,506	1,564,010	53.8%	65.7%	0.15	+9,043 (+22.7%)
2025-12-02	-39,905	-34,642	+147,742	1,535,955	44.2%	58.1%	0.01	+25,456 (+38.9%)
2025-11-25	-65,361	-21,235	+146,847	1,504,302	11.5%	32.4%	-0.42	-5,713 (-9.6%)
2025-11-18	-59,648	-19,934	+141,763	1,522,819	21.2%	39.0%	-0.31	-6,664 (-12.6%)
2025-11-10	-52,984	-12,728	+137,534	1,548,544	25.0%	44.8%	-0.20	-8,669 (-19.6%)
2025-11-04	-44,315	-10,935	+138,312	1,587,905	40.4%	54.3%	-0.05	-2,528 (-6.0%)
2025-10-28	-41,787	-8,624	+147,818	1,639,227	44.2%	55.2%	-0.02	+3,502 (+7.7%)
2025-10-21	-45,289	+2,432	+148,385	1,697,865	38.5%	51.4%	-0.08	+29,778 (+39.7%)
2025-10-14	-75,067	-2,921	+147,387	1,689,162	15.4%	27.6%	-0.59	-42,302 (-129.1%)
2025-10-07	-32,765	+3,316	+131,618	1,653,078	51.9%	61.0%	0.11	-1,398 (-4.5%)
2025-09-30	-31,367	-8,874	+127,094	1,669,212	51.9%	61.9%	0.14	+31,919 (+50.4%)
2025-09-23	-63,286	-4,931	+127,349	1,646,354	23.1%	34.3%	-0.40	-39,998 (-171.8%)
2025-09-16	-23,288	-13,664	+118,291	1,655,846	57.7%	66.7%	0.27	+1,691 (+6.8%)
2025-09-09	-24,979	-30,648	+114,187	1,647,371	57.7%	66.7%	0.24	+11,971 (+32.4%)
2025-09-02	-36,950	-21,696	+111,407	1,650,508	50.0%	58.1%	0.04	+7,393 (+16.7%)
2025-08-26	-44,343	-16,766	+106,232	1,633,747	44.2%	51.4%	-0.08	-7,558 (-20.5%)
2025-08-19	-36,785	-17,766	+109,578	1,627,068	51.9%	57.1%	0.04	+13,967 (+27.5%)
2025-08-12	-50,752	-30,214	+112,129	1,641,970	38.5%	46.7%	-0.20	-23,025 (-83.0%)
2025-08-05	-27,727	-32,171	+110,617	1,629,552	55.8%	61.9%	0.17	-14,722 (-113.2%)
2025-07-29	-13,005	-39,782	+109,549	1,571,074	67.3%	70.5%	0.42	+17,034 (+56.7%)
2025-07-22	-30,039	-41,560	+104,513	1,552,964	57.7%	61.0%	0.13	-10,514 (-53.8%)
2025-07-15	-19,525	-44,968	+105,187	1,575,124	63.5%	64.8%	0.30	+27,600 (+58.6%)
2025-07-08	-47,125	-41,396	+110,557	1,543,718	50.0%	47.6%	-0.16	+4,504 (+8.7%)
2025-07-01	-51,629	-42,789	+115,948	1,522,714	46.2%	45.7%	-0.25	+9,096 (+15.0%)
2025-06-24	-60,725	-40,845	+117,291	1,518,525	32.7%	37.1%	-0.40	+2,535 (+4.0%)
2025-06-17	-63,260	-36,213	+112,486	1,556,519	26.9%	34.3%	-0.45	+21,160 (+25.1%)
2025-06-10	-84,420	-13,352	+109,161	1,565,051	11.5%	22.9%	-0.80	-31,655 (-60.0%)
2025-06-03	-52,765	-9,494	+101,289	1,526,697	36.5%	42.9%	-0.28	+10,776 (+17.0%)
2025-05-27	-63,541	-8,679	+124,542	1,488,916	23.1%	33.3%	-0.46	-6,734 (-11.9%)
2025-05-20	-56,807	-13,921	+118,780	1,526,319	28.8%	38.1%	-0.35	-18,158 (-47.0%)
2025-05-13	-38,649	-2,808	+106,718	1,556,307	42.3%	49.5%	-0.05	+6,581 (+14.6%)
2025-05-06	-45,230	+88	+113,378	1,536,521	36.5%	44.8%	-0.16	-933 (-2.1%)
2025-04-29	-44,297	-859	+113,113	1,495,671	38.5%	46.7%	-0.14	-18,274 (-70.2%)
2025-04-22	-26,023	-2,105	+97,241	1,499,751	46.2%	60.0%	0.16	-31,084 (-614.2%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportableProducer / Merchant