Natural Gas

Neutral

energy · Last COT: 2026-10-13

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Natural Gas futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is low versus the last two years (9th percentile).

Crowd risk

Neutral

Gross long exposure is not at the dashboard's concentration threshold.

Price context

Price sits 23% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Neutral seasonal bias for week 43. Macro is supportive.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

2.76

As of 2026-10-22 · -0.4760 (-14.7%)

52-wk Range

23%

2.61 — 5.29

Managed Money Net

-126,156

WoW: +18,525 (+12.8%)

Producer Net

-10,732

WoW: -2,616 (-32.2%)

Swap Dealer Net

+228,490

WoW: +618 (+0.3%)

52-wk Percentile

9.6%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

8.6%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-1.27

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

+2.88%

Week 43 · 20y avg

Seasonal Win%

55.0%

20 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongNeutralMM Long Concentration: 39.2%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week lows (23%) and managed money is heavily short (9th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bearish. Contrarian bounce potential increases at these extremes.

COT Baseline Price

3.24

As of 2026-10-12

+0.0680 (+2.15%) WoW

52-Week Range

2.61

5.29

23%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (43)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+2.88%

Win Rate

55.0%(20y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 44+6.42% (80%)

Week 53+4.92% (67%)

Week 4+4.85% (52%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 5-7.12% (19%)

Week 49-3.48% (25%)

Week 50-3.46% (25%)

Injection season (Apr–Oct) typically suppresses prices as storage builds. Withdrawal season (Nov–Mar) supports prices, especially during cold snaps.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year low (9th percentile — bullish contrarian) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

101.69-0.31 (-0.3%)↓

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-US buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for energy prices.

Brent-WTI Spread

12.07+4.12 (+51.8%)↑

A widening Brent-WTI spread signals tighter global supply relative to US supply. A narrowing spread suggests US oversupply or weakening global demand.

VIX

16.68+0.22 (+1.3%)↑

High volatility typically accompanies risk-off moves that weigh on industrial energy demand. Stable low volatility supports steady consumption.

US 10Y Yield

5.15+0.06 (+1.1%)↑

Rising yields reflect growth expectations that support energy demand. Falling yields may signal economic slowdown concerns.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-10-13	-126,156	-10,732	+228,490	1,761,366	9.6%	8.6%	-1.27	+18,525 (+12.8%)
2026-10-06	-144,681	-8,116	+227,872	1,830,932	1.9%	1.9%	-1.62	-11,832 (-8.9%)
2026-09-29	-132,849	-13,947	+227,773	1,796,124	3.8%	4.8%	-1.45	-67,217 (-102.4%)
2026-09-22	-65,632	-23,627	+225,714	1,853,483	63.5%	41.0%	-0.29	+34,392 (+34.4%)
2026-09-15	-100,024	-17,103	+223,515	1,835,136	30.8%	20.0%	-0.90	-3,347 (-3.5%)
2026-09-08	-96,677	-15,145	+216,043	1,837,184	34.6%	21.9%	-0.86	-7,154 (-8.0%)
2026-09-01	-89,523	-16,961	+210,225	1,819,853	36.5%	22.9%	-0.74	-18,027 (-25.2%)
2026-08-25	-71,496	-18,811	+208,734	1,762,883	51.9%	34.3%	-0.42	+28,404 (+28.4%)
2026-08-18	-99,900	-16,571	+206,851	1,743,477	30.8%	20.0%	-0.93	+10,482 (+9.5%)
2026-08-11	-110,382	-17,755	+200,279	1,706,695	13.5%	11.4%	-1.13	+16,163 (+12.8%)
2026-08-04	-126,545	-13,600	+203,235	1,719,031	3.8%	5.7%	-1.44	-20,940 (-19.8%)
2026-07-28	-105,605	-16,840	+198,443	1,683,026	15.4%	12.4%	-1.08	-2,911 (-2.8%)
2026-07-21	-102,694	-32,913	+196,060	1,695,624	19.2%	14.3%	-1.05	+2,807 (+2.7%)
2026-07-14	-105,501	-27,934	+196,791	1,676,383	15.4%	12.4%	-1.11	-45,124 (-74.7%)
2026-07-07	-60,377	-37,949	+187,445	1,678,099	51.9%	41.9%	-0.29	+4,677 (+7.2%)
2026-06-30	-65,054	-31,239	+185,050	1,643,920	46.2%	34.3%	-0.39	+17,758 (+21.4%)
2026-06-23	-82,812	-30,351	+192,404	1,623,076	30.8%	21.0%	-0.73	+1,860 (+2.2%)
2026-06-16	-84,672	-28,297	+190,187	1,656,030	26.9%	18.1%	-0.78	+37,941 (+30.9%)
2026-06-09	-122,613	-20,784	+196,652	1,647,699	3.8%	6.7%	-1.48	-7,883 (-6.9%)
2026-06-02	-114,730	-22,514	+196,514	1,673,295	5.8%	7.6%	-1.37	+19,374 (+14.4%)
2026-05-26	-134,104	-10,692	+201,407	1,647,784	1.9%	2.9%	-1.74	-37,815 (-39.3%)
2026-05-19	-96,289	-20,304	+192,197	1,614,121	17.3%	13.3%	-1.10	+23,581 (+19.7%)
2026-05-12	-119,870	-26,300	+185,691	1,641,104	1.9%	5.7%	-1.55	-12,413 (-11.6%)
2026-05-05	-107,457	-28,016	+181,569	1,640,055	3.8%	6.7%	-1.35	-10,112 (-10.4%)
2026-04-28	-97,345	-26,556	+178,337	1,588,956	11.5%	11.4%	-1.16	+3,152 (+3.1%)
2026-04-21	-100,497	-23,712	+176,170	1,591,158	7.7%	9.5%	-1.22	+13,771 (+12.1%)
2026-04-14	-114,268	-10,512	+183,830	1,599,878	1.9%	6.7%	-1.47	-27,858 (-32.2%)
2026-04-07	-86,410	-9,383	+172,258	1,570,957	7.7%	12.4%	-0.96	-18,388 (-27.0%)
2026-03-31	-68,022	-17,201	+166,282	1,525,975	19.2%	23.8%	-0.62	-13,493 (-24.7%)
2026-03-24	-54,529	-10,981	+165,516	1,520,594	36.5%	39.0%	-0.36	-9,929 (-22.3%)
2026-03-17	-44,600	-4,121	+162,243	1,577,306	50.0%	49.5%	-0.17	+17,974 (+28.7%)
2026-03-10	-62,574	+8,267	+156,384	1,584,208	28.8%	32.4%	-0.49	+13,336 (+17.6%)
2026-03-03	-75,910	+18,409	+166,400	1,621,447	13.5%	21.9%	-0.73	-204 (-0.3%)
2026-02-24	-75,706	+30,284	+153,807	1,630,910	13.5%	22.9%	-0.71	-48,866 (-182.1%)
2026-02-17	-26,840	+35,542	+140,604	1,633,915	69.2%	65.7%	0.19	-18,712 (-230.2%)
2026-02-10	-8,128	+27,370	+132,661	1,643,074	80.8%	76.2%	0.54	-8,234 (-7767.9%)
2026-02-03	+106	+36,460	+127,149	1,676,452	80.8%	79.0%	0.69	+22,076 (+100.5%)
2026-01-27	-21,970	+25,713	+126,570	1,646,811	75.0%	71.4%	0.32	+55,044 (+71.5%)
2026-01-20	-77,014	+17,511	+164,660	1,636,626	11.5%	24.8%	-0.65	+27,035 (+26.0%)
2026-01-13	-104,049	+8,417	+166,292	1,652,342	3.8%	11.4%	-1.14	-3,875 (-3.9%)
2026-01-06	-100,174	+6,711	+149,175	1,610,205	3.8%	12.4%	-1.08	-16,444 (-19.6%)
2025-12-30	-83,730	-5,162	+150,308	1,545,577	5.8%	19.0%	-0.80	+22,176 (+20.9%)
2025-12-23	-105,906	-364	+149,046	1,575,569	1.9%	10.5%	-1.19	-40,184 (-61.1%)
2025-12-16	-65,722	-14,564	+132,829	1,592,965	5.8%	29.5%	-0.47	-34,860 (-113.0%)
2025-12-09	-30,862	-44,259	+129,506	1,564,010	53.8%	65.7%	0.15	+9,043 (+22.7%)
2025-12-02	-39,905	-34,642	+147,742	1,535,955	44.2%	58.1%	0.01	+25,456 (+38.9%)
2025-11-25	-65,361	-21,235	+146,847	1,504,302	11.5%	32.4%	-0.42	-5,713 (-9.6%)
2025-11-18	-59,648	-19,934	+141,763	1,522,819	21.2%	39.0%	-0.31	-6,664 (-12.6%)
2025-11-10	-52,984	-12,728	+137,534	1,548,544	25.0%	44.8%	-0.20	-8,669 (-19.6%)
2025-11-04	-44,315	-10,935	+138,312	1,587,905	40.4%	54.3%	-0.05	-2,528 (-6.0%)
2025-10-28	-41,787	-8,624	+147,818	1,639,227	44.2%	55.2%	-0.02	+3,502 (+7.7%)
2025-10-21	-45,289	+2,432	+148,385	1,697,865	38.5%	51.4%	-0.08	+29,778 (+39.7%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportableProducer / Merchant