RBOB Gasoline

Liquidation Risk

energy · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

3.00

-0.1589 (-5.0%)

52-wk Range

100%

1.70 — 3.16

Managed Money Net

+57,312

WoW: -2,766 (-4.6%)

Producer Net

-70,618

WoW: +4,857 (+6.4%)

Swap Dealer Net

+3,869

WoW: +3,555 (+1132.2%)

52-wk Percentile

61.5%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

72.4%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

0.55

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+0.87%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

61.9%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 90.9%

Price Context

Price is in the upper half of its range (100%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (72th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

Report Date Price

3.16

+0.1630 (+5.43%) WoW

52-Week Range

1.70

3.16

100%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.87%

Win Rate

61.9%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 9+9.04% (81%)

Week 19+3.87% (70%)

Week 10+2.77% (62%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 36-5.15% (15%)

Week 31-2.85% (35%)

Week 49-2.73% (30%)

Gasoline demand peaks during the summer driving season (Memorial Day through Labor Day). Refinery switchover to summer-grade fuel (Feb–Apr) often tightens supply early in the year.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (72th percentile) while macro is Mixed.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-US buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for energy prices.

Brent-WTI Spread

6.53+1.83 (+38.9%)↑

A widening Brent-WTI spread signals tighter global supply relative to US supply. A narrowing spread suggests US oversupply or weakening global demand.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

High volatility typically accompanies risk-off moves that weigh on industrial energy demand. Stable low volatility supports steady consumption.

US 10Y Yield

4.25-0.06 (-1.5%)↓

Rising yields reflect growth expectations that support energy demand. Falling yields may signal economic slowdown concerns.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

7.7%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

50.0%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

53.3%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 2.9%WoW: +1,700 (+7.0%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 1.18

Concentration Risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

1,158

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

375

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

3.09

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

41.0%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

0.55

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

72.4%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

61.0%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

7.6%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+57,312	-70,618	+3,869	339,819	61.5%	72.4%	0.55	-2,766 (-4.6%)
2026-04-07	+60,078	-75,475	+314	323,521	65.4%	73.3%	0.65	-4,250 (-6.6%)
2026-03-31	+64,328	-78,003	-4,300	331,405	73.1%	77.1%	0.82	-7,986 (-11.0%)
2026-03-24	+72,314	-79,408	-5,121	357,477	78.8%	83.8%	1.15	-7,555 (-9.5%)
2026-03-17	+79,869	-89,782	-6,115	383,123	86.5%	91.4%	1.48	+2,850 (+3.7%)
2026-03-10	+77,019	-88,695	-1,385	393,241	82.7%	87.6%	1.37	-8,805 (-10.3%)
2026-03-03	+85,824	-113,443	+7,739	415,333	92.3%	96.2%	1.77	-3,303 (-3.7%)
2026-02-24	+89,127	-118,865	+7,121	468,457	94.2%	97.1%	1.95	+11,086 (+14.2%)
2026-02-17	+78,041	-112,656	+10,081	466,515	88.5%	90.5%	1.49	-2,015 (-2.5%)
2026-02-10	+80,056	-114,704	+10,344	465,083	92.3%	94.3%	1.60	+12,143 (+17.9%)
2026-02-03	+67,913	-102,360	+12,952	470,819	90.4%	87.6%	1.07	+2,502 (+3.8%)
2026-01-27	+65,411	-101,551	+14,136	465,886	90.4%	81.9%	0.96	+3,285 (+5.3%)
2026-01-20	+62,126	-95,708	+15,775	458,678	86.5%	78.1%	0.81	+3,613 (+6.2%)
2026-01-13	+58,513	-96,368	+16,691	452,923	86.5%	73.3%	0.64	+9,028 (+18.2%)
2026-01-06	+49,485	-89,282	+14,511	421,968	73.1%	59.0%	0.22	-3,776 (-7.1%)
2025-12-30	+53,261	-88,719	+10,013	411,645	78.8%	63.8%	0.39	-237 (-0.4%)
2025-12-23	+53,498	-83,590	+6,562	421,249	82.7%	65.7%	0.39	-9,949 (-15.7%)
2025-12-16	+63,447	-86,811	+2,689	424,463	90.4%	78.1%	0.83	-21,742 (-25.5%)
2025-12-09	+85,189	-99,044	-4,234	406,016	94.2%	97.1%	1.82	-10,782 (-11.2%)
2025-12-02	+95,971	-103,595	-8,218	388,006	98.1%	99.0%	2.34	+5,654 (+6.3%)
2025-11-25	+90,317	-89,080	-9,768	388,879	98.1%	99.0%	2.14	-9,891 (-9.9%)
2025-11-18	+100,208	-98,951	-6,782	411,532	100.0%	100.0%	2.67	+22,129 (+28.3%)
2025-11-10	+78,079	-91,501	-128	370,687	100.0%	96.2%	1.69	+14,976 (+23.7%)
2025-11-04	+63,103	-77,994	+7,309	365,794	90.4%	80.0%	0.98	+12,043 (+23.6%)
2025-10-28	+51,060	-71,462	+13,635	349,960	76.9%	64.8%	0.39	+14,321 (+39.0%)
2025-10-21	+36,739	-57,787	+17,163	355,412	48.1%	41.9%	-0.32	+1,577 (+4.5%)
2025-10-14	+35,162	-51,633	+11,322	371,782	46.2%	41.0%	-0.39	-7,201 (-17.0%)
2025-10-07	+42,363	-55,850	+8,958	353,466	53.8%	49.5%	-0.03	-12,353 (-22.6%)
2025-09-30	+54,716	-68,211	+9,054	352,406	84.6%	69.5%	0.59	+4,933 (+9.9%)
2025-09-23	+49,783	-63,834	+10,064	361,113	73.1%	61.9%	0.34	+311 (+0.6%)
2025-09-16	+49,472	-67,219	+11,508	374,688	73.1%	61.0%	0.32	+2,949 (+6.3%)
2025-09-09	+46,523	-66,769	+13,647	342,418	67.3%	55.2%	0.16	+143 (+0.3%)
2025-09-02	+46,380	-63,003	+13,302	323,889	67.3%	54.3%	0.14	+7,961 (+20.7%)
2025-08-26	+38,419	-60,868	+14,236	330,812	55.8%	42.9%	-0.26	+11,501 (+42.7%)
2025-08-19	+26,918	-55,563	+18,445	337,159	40.4%	25.7%	-0.83	+9,575 (+55.2%)
2025-08-12	+17,343	-58,546	+21,923	333,615	15.4%	10.5%	-1.30	-2,897 (-14.3%)
2025-08-05	+20,240	-60,934	+20,387	335,343	25.0%	14.3%	-1.19	-4,431 (-18.0%)
2025-07-29	+24,671	-69,578	+20,862	347,340	38.5%	21.0%	-1.00	+6,142 (+33.1%)
2025-07-22	+18,529	-64,026	+23,463	370,894	25.0%	12.4%	-1.31	-13,138 (-41.5%)
2025-07-15	+31,667	-72,244	+18,665	356,452	53.8%	31.4%	-0.71	+12,131 (+62.1%)
2025-07-08	+19,536	-66,072	+22,032	348,966	25.0%	12.4%	-1.30	+2,694 (+16.0%)
2025-07-01	+16,842	-59,728	+22,303	343,721	17.3%	8.6%	-1.46	-6,812 (-28.8%)
2025-06-24	+23,654	-60,881	+16,085	356,627	32.7%	16.2%	-1.15	+2,864 (+13.8%)
2025-06-17	+20,790	-57,590	+20,469	366,584	26.9%	13.3%	-1.32	+382 (+1.9%)
2025-06-10	+20,408	-57,875	+21,783	396,992	25.0%	12.4%	-1.36	-9,030 (-30.7%)
2025-06-03	+29,438	-61,216	+19,079	388,811	42.3%	22.9%	-0.94	-1,472 (-4.8%)
2025-05-27	+30,910	-52,948	+10,349	399,592	42.3%	22.9%	-0.88	-10,453 (-25.3%)
2025-05-20	+41,363	-61,745	+10,994	402,946	63.5%	35.2%	-0.37	+2,077 (+5.3%)
2025-05-13	+39,286	-63,415	+13,607	399,755	55.8%	30.5%	-0.47	+9,925 (+33.8%)
2025-05-06	+29,361	-58,457	+18,821	400,459	40.4%	21.0%	-0.97	+6,033 (+25.9%)
2025-04-29	+23,328	-56,824	+23,949	388,087	26.9%	13.3%	-1.29	+5,443 (+30.4%)
2025-04-22	+17,885	-52,175	+28,703	412,306	21.2%	10.5%	-1.60	+1,620 (+10.0%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneyNonreportableSwap DealersOther Reportables