RBOB Gasoline

Liquidation Risk

energy · Last COT: 2026-10-13

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for RBOB Gasoline futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics Follow the Oil Shock Tracker

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is high versus the last two years (99th percentile).

Crowd risk

Liquidation Risk

92.0% of Managed Money contracts are long, which raises exit-risk even if net positioning is not at a high percentile.

Price context

Price sits 72% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Neutral seasonal bias for week 43. Macro is supportive.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

3.08

As of 2026-10-22 · -0.1002 (-3.2%)

52-wk Range

72%

1.70 — 3.77

Managed Money Net

+97,646

WoW: +834 (+0.9%)

Producer Net

-93,653

WoW: +1,428 (+1.5%)

Swap Dealer Net

+3,786

WoW: -7,366 (-66.1%)

52-wk Percentile

98.1%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

99.0%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

1.84

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+0.28%

Week 43 · 20y avg

Seasonal Win%

50.0%

20 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongClassic SetupMM Long Concentration: 92.0%

Price Context

Price is in the upper half of its range (72%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (99th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

COT Baseline Price

3.18

As of 2026-10-12

-0.1358 (-4.10%) WoW

52-Week Range

1.70

3.77

72%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (43)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.28%

Win Rate

50.0%(20y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 9+9.04% (81%)

Week 19+3.29% (67%)

Week 10+2.77% (62%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 36-5.26% (14%)

Week 31-3.00% (33%)

Week 49-2.73% (30%)

Gasoline demand peaks during the summer driving season (Memorial Day through Labor Day). Refinery switchover to summer-grade fuel (Feb–Apr) often tightens supply early in the year.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (99th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

101.63-0.37 (-0.4%)↓

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-US buyers, reducing demand. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for energy prices.

Brent-WTI Spread

13.82+5.87 (+73.8%)↑

A widening Brent-WTI spread signals tighter global supply relative to US supply. A narrowing spread suggests US oversupply or weakening global demand.

VIX

19.03+2.57 (+15.6%)↑

High volatility typically accompanies risk-off moves that weigh on industrial energy demand. Stable low volatility supports steady consumption.

US 10Y Yield

4.95-0.14 (-2.7%)↓

Rising yields reflect growth expectations that support energy demand. Falling yields may signal economic slowdown concerns.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-10-13	+97,646	-93,653	+3,786	341,577	98.1%	99.0%	1.84	+834 (+0.9%)
2026-10-06	+96,812	-95,081	+11,152	350,043	98.1%	99.0%	1.86	+2,794 (+3.0%)
2026-09-29	+94,018	-90,031	+12,003	343,894	94.2%	97.1%	1.78	-2,145 (-2.2%)
2026-09-22	+96,163	-92,829	+8,156	362,848	98.1%	99.0%	1.92	+12,946 (+15.6%)
2026-09-15	+83,217	-91,446	+13,493	360,067	84.6%	92.4%	1.37	-9,709 (-10.4%)
2026-09-08	+92,926	-101,948	+14,514	366,612	96.2%	98.1%	1.82	+3,663 (+4.1%)
2026-09-01	+89,263	-100,903	+18,352	355,460	94.2%	97.1%	1.69	+9,405 (+11.8%)
2026-08-25	+79,858	-95,317	+16,049	349,514	84.6%	92.4%	1.31	+5,533 (+7.4%)
2026-08-18	+74,325	-90,449	+19,851	338,655	78.8%	89.5%	1.08	+4,285 (+6.1%)
2026-08-11	+70,040	-89,453	+22,756	328,036	67.3%	82.9%	0.91	+216 (+0.3%)
2026-08-04	+69,824	-94,475	+24,077	307,160	67.3%	82.9%	0.91	-4,143 (-5.6%)
2026-07-28	+73,967	-95,874	+23,060	323,963	78.8%	89.5%	1.11	+104 (+0.1%)
2026-07-21	+73,863	-93,955	+21,129	333,527	78.8%	89.5%	1.13	+4,912 (+7.1%)
2026-07-14	+68,951	-92,464	+24,190	327,876	71.2%	84.8%	0.93	-2,592 (-3.6%)
2026-07-07	+71,543	-91,825	+24,929	319,106	75.0%	86.7%	1.06	-765 (-1.1%)
2026-06-30	+72,308	-89,491	+25,420	304,323	76.9%	87.6%	1.12	+942 (+1.3%)
2026-06-23	+71,366	-86,250	+25,172	318,251	76.9%	87.6%	1.10	+3,690 (+5.5%)
2026-06-16	+67,676	-85,307	+23,414	312,650	73.1%	84.8%	0.96	+3,342 (+5.2%)
2026-06-09	+64,334	-78,960	+20,103	316,227	67.3%	79.0%	0.82	-3,623 (-5.3%)
2026-06-02	+67,957	-85,419	+18,239	303,631	76.9%	86.7%	1.00	+674 (+1.0%)
2026-05-26	+67,283	-83,017	+14,277	301,920	75.0%	85.7%	0.99	+4,654 (+7.4%)
2026-05-19	+62,629	-78,927	+13,960	322,416	61.5%	76.2%	0.79	-1,114 (-1.7%)
2026-05-12	+63,743	-79,831	+8,824	330,082	69.2%	80.0%	0.85	-2,686 (-4.0%)
2026-05-05	+66,429	-80,117	+6,236	314,222	75.0%	82.9%	0.98	+3,599 (+5.7%)
2026-04-28	+62,830	-74,498	+4,795	315,440	67.3%	78.1%	0.82	+3,782 (+6.4%)
2026-04-21	+59,048	-73,628	+1,222	332,531	63.5%	74.3%	0.64	+1,736 (+3.0%)
2026-04-14	+57,312	-70,618	+3,869	339,819	61.5%	72.4%	0.55	-2,766 (-4.6%)
2026-04-07	+60,078	-75,475	+314	323,521	65.4%	73.3%	0.65	-4,250 (-6.6%)
2026-03-31	+64,328	-78,003	-4,300	331,405	73.1%	77.1%	0.82	-7,986 (-11.0%)
2026-03-24	+72,314	-79,408	-5,121	357,477	78.8%	83.8%	1.15	-7,555 (-9.5%)
2026-03-17	+79,869	-89,782	-6,115	383,123	86.5%	91.4%	1.48	+2,850 (+3.7%)
2026-03-10	+77,019	-88,695	-1,385	393,241	82.7%	87.6%	1.37	-8,805 (-10.3%)
2026-03-03	+85,824	-113,443	+7,739	415,333	92.3%	96.2%	1.77	-3,303 (-3.7%)
2026-02-24	+89,127	-118,865	+7,121	468,457	94.2%	97.1%	1.95	+11,086 (+14.2%)
2026-02-17	+78,041	-112,656	+10,081	466,515	88.5%	90.5%	1.49	-2,015 (-2.5%)
2026-02-10	+80,056	-114,704	+10,344	465,083	92.3%	94.3%	1.60	+12,143 (+17.9%)
2026-02-03	+67,913	-102,360	+12,952	470,819	90.4%	87.6%	1.07	+2,502 (+3.8%)
2026-01-27	+65,411	-101,551	+14,136	465,886	90.4%	81.9%	0.96	+3,285 (+5.3%)
2026-01-20	+62,126	-95,708	+15,775	458,678	86.5%	78.1%	0.81	+3,613 (+6.2%)
2026-01-13	+58,513	-96,368	+16,691	452,923	86.5%	73.3%	0.64	+9,028 (+18.2%)
2026-01-06	+49,485	-89,282	+14,511	421,968	73.1%	59.0%	0.22	-3,776 (-7.1%)
2025-12-30	+53,261	-88,719	+10,013	411,645	78.8%	63.8%	0.39	-237 (-0.4%)
2025-12-23	+53,498	-83,590	+6,562	421,249	82.7%	65.7%	0.39	-9,949 (-15.7%)
2025-12-16	+63,447	-86,811	+2,689	424,463	90.4%	78.1%	0.83	-21,742 (-25.5%)
2025-12-09	+85,189	-99,044	-4,234	406,016	94.2%	97.1%	1.82	-10,782 (-11.2%)
2025-12-02	+95,971	-103,595	-8,218	388,006	98.1%	99.0%	2.34	+5,654 (+6.3%)
2025-11-25	+90,317	-89,080	-9,768	388,879	98.1%	99.0%	2.14	-9,891 (-9.9%)
2025-11-18	+100,208	-98,951	-6,782	411,532	100.0%	100.0%	2.67	+22,129 (+28.3%)
2025-11-10	+78,079	-91,501	-128	370,687	100.0%	96.2%	1.69	+14,976 (+23.7%)
2025-11-04	+63,103	-77,994	+7,309	365,794	90.4%	80.0%	0.98	+12,043 (+23.6%)
2025-10-28	+51,060	-71,462	+13,635	349,960	76.9%	64.8%	0.39	+14,321 (+39.0%)
2025-10-21	+36,739	-57,787	+17,163	355,412	48.1%	41.9%	-0.32	+1,577 (+4.5%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Managed MoneyProducer / MerchantOther ReportablesNonreportableSwap Dealers