Bullion Dashboard

Silver

Liquidation Risk

metals · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price
81.74

+3.13 (+4.0%)

52-wk Range
68%

31.99 — 100.93

Managed Money Net
+11,270

WoW: +872 (+8.4%)

Producer Net
-16,756

WoW: -1,186 (-7.6%)

Swap Dealer Net
-23,377

WoW: -32 (-0.1%)

52-wk Percentile
25.0%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile
12.4%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score
-1.57
Crowd Risk
Liquidation Risk
Seasonal Ret
-0.41%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%
52.4%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias
Neutral
Swap Net: ShortHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 80.8%

Price Context

Price is mid-range (68%) with neutral positioning (12th percentile) — no strong signal from the price-COT relationship.

Report Date Price

78.61

+2.33 (+3.05%) WoW

52-Week Range

31.99
100.93

68%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)
Neutral
Avg Return
-0.41%
Win Rate
52.4%(21y)
3 Strongest Weeks
Week 15+2.17% (67%)
Week 52+1.95% (70%)
Week 4+1.91% (76%)
3 Weakest Weeks
Week 18-2.14% (30%)
Week 53-1.85% (33%)
Week 12-1.52% (48%)
Industrial demand (solar panels, electronics) creates a steady base. Silver often follows gold's seasonal patterns but with higher volatility. Q4 tends to see physical buying strength.

Macro Context

Mixed
COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is low (12th percentile — leaning bullish) while macro is Mixed.
DXY (USD Index)
98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)

A falling dollar makes gold and silver cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting prices. A rising dollar is a headwind for precious metals.

US 10Y Yield
4.25-0.06 (-1.5%)

Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals like gold. Falling yields are bullish for precious metals.

13-Week T-Bill
3.60-0.01 (-0.3%)

Higher short-term rates signal tighter Fed policy, which historically pressures gold. Lower rates ease monetary conditions and support metals.

VIX
17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)

Elevated volatility drives safe-haven demand into gold and silver. Low VIX reflects complacency and reduces the urgency to hold precious metals.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

15.0%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

84.6%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

92.4%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:NoiseSpread percentile: 90.5%WoW: -4,586 (-20.7%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Longs Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: -1.23

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile
Avg Contracts / Long Trader
410
Avg Contracts / Short Trader
438
Long/Short Concentration Ratio
0.94
Long Conc. 105-wk %ile
5.7%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Partial
Raw Z-Score
-1.57

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile
12.4%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile
9.5%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile
3.8%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

DateMM NetProducer NetSwap NetOpen Interest52-wk %ile105-wk %ileZ-ScoreWoW Chg
2026-04-14+11,270-16,756-23,377116,98325.0%12.4%-1.57+872 (+8.4%)
2026-04-07+10,398-15,570-23,345115,13819.2%9.5%-1.68-868 (-7.7%)
2026-03-31+11,266-15,492-23,365115,16921.2%10.5%-1.65+108 (+1.0%)
2026-03-24+11,158-15,242-25,046113,16419.2%9.5%-1.70+1,511 (+15.7%)
2026-03-17+9,647-14,797-23,561114,75813.5%6.7%-1.88-642 (-6.2%)
2026-03-10+10,289-16,153-25,424115,45815.4%7.6%-1.87+2,523 (+32.5%)
2026-03-03+7,766-15,015-24,951113,3269.6%4.8%-2.12-757 (-8.9%)
2026-02-24+8,523-16,675-24,405125,4549.6%5.7%-1.99+2,555 (+42.8%)
2026-02-17+5,968-15,883-26,464131,4965.8%4.8%-2.20+1,399 (+30.6%)
2026-02-10+4,569-16,790-25,373133,6411.9%2.9%-2.23-414 (-8.3%)
2026-02-03+4,983-18,267-27,458143,1801.9%3.8%-2.14-2,716 (-35.3%)
2026-01-27+7,699-21,213-22,843156,6371.9%5.7%-1.91-2,247 (-22.6%)
2026-01-20+9,946-19,756-26,633152,0201.9%6.7%-1.67-3,846 (-27.9%)
2026-01-13+13,792-25,511-29,781151,5131.9%7.6%-1.33-2,030 (-12.8%)
2026-01-06+15,822-25,545-26,146153,2403.8%10.5%-1.15+1,814 (+12.9%)
2025-12-30+14,008-26,074-24,188157,3911.9%8.6%-1.30-7,600 (-35.2%)
2025-12-23+21,608-24,229-30,038155,71013.5%18.1%-0.67-279 (-1.3%)
2025-12-16+21,887-25,373-29,818152,92115.4%19.0%-0.64-3,888 (-15.1%)
2025-12-09+25,775-28,837-31,990154,76228.8%32.4%-0.30+6,801 (+35.8%)
2025-12-02+18,974-26,739-29,900150,8325.8%15.2%-0.86-87 (-0.5%)
2025-11-25+19,061-24,193-29,075144,5415.8%15.2%-0.86-1,173 (-5.8%)
2025-11-18+20,234-23,552-29,874153,2957.7%17.1%-0.76-3,306 (-14.0%)
2025-11-10+23,540-23,321-27,987217,29719.2%24.8%-0.47+4,383 (+22.9%)
2025-11-04+19,157-22,607-30,057155,2575.8%18.1%-0.80-2,742 (-12.5%)
2025-10-28+21,899-23,520-32,065158,1877.7%20.0%-0.56+4,687 (+27.2%)
2025-10-21+17,212-23,490-33,747169,4183.8%19.0%-0.91-5,826 (-25.3%)
2025-10-14+23,038-26,013-38,642172,4159.6%23.8%-0.44-4,455 (-16.2%)
2025-10-07+27,493-24,038-44,648166,47426.9%41.0%-0.08-7,428 (-21.3%)
2025-09-30+34,921-26,823-44,267163,83757.7%65.7%0.49-2,178 (-5.9%)
2025-09-23+37,099-28,823-43,932165,80565.4%72.4%0.66+1,293 (+3.6%)
2025-09-16+35,806-27,925-43,464162,95459.6%70.5%0.58-49 (-0.1%)
2025-09-09+35,855-27,944-45,458156,70359.6%71.4%0.60-2,915 (-7.5%)
2025-09-02+38,770-29,721-44,476158,36867.3%79.0%0.82+5,799 (+17.6%)
2025-08-26+32,971-24,498-43,787158,63050.0%61.0%0.43+4,925 (+17.6%)
2025-08-19+28,046-22,577-44,098158,47730.8%47.6%0.10+766 (+2.8%)
2025-08-12+27,280-23,010-43,411156,43228.8%47.6%0.07-2,543 (-8.5%)
2025-08-05+29,823-28,811-43,417161,26236.5%52.4%0.25-13,201 (-30.7%)
2025-07-29+43,024-30,222-48,707170,32978.8%89.5%1.14-990 (-2.2%)
2025-07-22+44,014-29,827-49,400173,67982.7%91.4%1.22+808 (+1.9%)
2025-07-15+43,206-30,369-49,279171,47482.7%91.4%1.18+450 (+1.1%)
2025-07-08+42,756-27,271-52,324162,80382.7%91.4%1.18-2,171 (-4.8%)
2025-07-01+44,927-30,152-54,388163,56786.5%93.3%1.35-184 (-0.4%)
2025-06-24+45,111-34,485-47,992174,61388.5%94.3%1.39-3,754 (-7.7%)
2025-06-17+48,865-36,473-49,475184,83198.1%99.0%1.67+932 (+1.9%)
2025-06-10+47,933-36,562-49,099174,28198.1%99.0%1.65+3,100 (+6.9%)
2025-06-03+44,833-33,435-45,706163,34792.3%96.2%1.48+11,621 (+35.0%)
2025-05-27+33,212-31,302-38,975147,55563.5%72.4%0.70+2,767 (+9.1%)
2025-05-20+30,445-30,792-35,987141,45146.2%63.8%0.52+2,112 (+7.5%)
2025-05-13+28,333-30,447-35,733138,26236.5%59.0%0.38-1,549 (-5.2%)
2025-05-06+29,882-30,699-37,104140,26142.3%62.9%0.49-856 (-2.8%)
2025-04-29+30,738-30,999-38,265152,66944.2%66.7%0.55+4,847 (+18.7%)
2025-04-22+25,891-30,927-33,447146,92326.9%53.3%0.22+2,339 (+9.9%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersProducer / MerchantNonreportableOther ReportablesManaged Money