Silver

Neutral

metals · Last COT: 2026-06-09

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Price

67.86

+3.97 (+6.2%)

52-wk Range

43%

35.98 — 100.93

Managed Money Net

+10,403

WoW: -41 (-0.4%)

Producer Net

-16,659

WoW: +1,334 (+7.4%)

Swap Dealer Net

-23,709

WoW: +959 (+3.9%)

52-wk Percentile

25.0%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

12.4%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-1.39

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

-1.72%

Week 24 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

42.9%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: ShortHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 73.4%

Price Context

Price is in the lower half of its range (43%) with moderate-to-bearish positioning (12th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

Report Date Price

63.88

-9.89 (-13.41%) WoW

52-Week Range

35.98

100.93

43%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (24)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

-1.72%

Win Rate

42.9%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 15+2.17% (67%)

Week 52+1.95% (70%)

Week 4+1.91% (76%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 18-2.16% (29%)

Week 53-1.85% (33%)

Week 24-1.72% (43%)

Industrial demand (solar panels, electronics) creates a steady base. Silver often follows gold's seasonal patterns but with higher volatility. Q4 tends to see physical buying strength.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is low (12th percentile — leaning bullish) while macro is Mixed.

DXY (USD Index)

99.75-0.11 (-0.1%)↓

A falling dollar makes gold and silver cheaper for foreign buyers, supporting prices. A rising dollar is a headwind for precious metals.

US 10Y Yield

4.49+0.02 (+0.5%)↑

Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals like gold. Falling yields are bullish for precious metals.

13-Week T-Bill

3.62-0.00 (-0.1%)↓

Higher short-term rates signal tighter Fed policy, which historically pressures gold. Lower rates ease monetary conditions and support metals.

VIX

17.68-1.76 (-9.1%)↓

Elevated volatility drives safe-haven demand into gold and silver. Low VIX reflects complacency and reduces the urgency to hold precious metals.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

10.9%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

84.6%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

92.4%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:MediumSpread percentile: 74.3%WoW: +1,493 (+15.3%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: -0.53

Concentration Risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

605

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

494

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

1.22

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

25.7%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

-1.39

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

12.4%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

16.2%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

19.0%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-06-09	+10,403	-16,659	-23,709	103,440	25.0%	12.4%	-1.39	-41 (-0.4%)
2026-06-02	+10,444	-17,993	-24,668	102,809	25.0%	12.4%	-1.42	+389 (+3.9%)
2026-05-26	+10,055	-19,545	-21,348	101,744	19.2%	9.5%	-1.48	-1,509 (-13.0%)
2026-05-19	+11,564	-19,293	-23,375	100,751	32.7%	16.2%	-1.38	-4,197 (-26.6%)
2026-05-12	+15,761	-19,632	-24,014	103,800	36.5%	18.1%	-1.05	+4,918 (+45.4%)
2026-05-05	+10,843	-17,613	-22,922	96,932	25.0%	12.4%	-1.50	+237 (+2.2%)
2026-04-28	+10,606	-18,110	-22,342	101,275	23.1%	11.4%	-1.55	+1,738 (+19.6%)
2026-04-21	+8,868	-16,417	-24,568	115,462	13.5%	6.7%	-1.74	-2,402 (-21.3%)
2026-04-14	+11,270	-16,756	-23,377	116,983	25.0%	12.4%	-1.57	+872 (+8.4%)
2026-04-07	+10,398	-15,570	-23,345	115,138	19.2%	9.5%	-1.68	-868 (-7.7%)
2026-03-31	+11,266	-15,492	-23,365	115,169	21.2%	10.5%	-1.65	+108 (+1.0%)
2026-03-24	+11,158	-15,242	-25,046	113,164	19.2%	9.5%	-1.70	+1,511 (+15.7%)
2026-03-17	+9,647	-14,797	-23,561	114,758	13.5%	6.7%	-1.88	-642 (-6.2%)
2026-03-10	+10,289	-16,153	-25,424	115,458	15.4%	7.6%	-1.87	+2,523 (+32.5%)
2026-03-03	+7,766	-15,015	-24,951	113,326	9.6%	4.8%	-2.12	-757 (-8.9%)
2026-02-24	+8,523	-16,675	-24,405	125,454	9.6%	5.7%	-1.99	+2,555 (+42.8%)
2026-02-17	+5,968	-15,883	-26,464	131,496	5.8%	4.8%	-2.20	+1,399 (+30.6%)
2026-02-10	+4,569	-16,790	-25,373	133,641	1.9%	2.9%	-2.23	-414 (-8.3%)
2026-02-03	+4,983	-18,267	-27,458	143,180	1.9%	3.8%	-2.14	-2,716 (-35.3%)
2026-01-27	+7,699	-21,213	-22,843	156,637	1.9%	5.7%	-1.91	-2,247 (-22.6%)
2026-01-20	+9,946	-19,756	-26,633	152,020	1.9%	6.7%	-1.67	-3,846 (-27.9%)
2026-01-13	+13,792	-25,511	-29,781	151,513	1.9%	7.6%	-1.33	-2,030 (-12.8%)
2026-01-06	+15,822	-25,545	-26,146	153,240	3.8%	10.5%	-1.15	+1,814 (+12.9%)
2025-12-30	+14,008	-26,074	-24,188	157,391	1.9%	8.6%	-1.30	-7,600 (-35.2%)
2025-12-23	+21,608	-24,229	-30,038	155,710	13.5%	18.1%	-0.67	-279 (-1.3%)
2025-12-16	+21,887	-25,373	-29,818	152,921	15.4%	19.0%	-0.64	-3,888 (-15.1%)
2025-12-09	+25,775	-28,837	-31,990	154,762	28.8%	32.4%	-0.30	+6,801 (+35.8%)
2025-12-02	+18,974	-26,739	-29,900	150,832	5.8%	15.2%	-0.86	-87 (-0.5%)
2025-11-25	+19,061	-24,193	-29,075	144,541	5.8%	15.2%	-0.86	-1,173 (-5.8%)
2025-11-18	+20,234	-23,552	-29,874	153,295	7.7%	17.1%	-0.76	-3,306 (-14.0%)
2025-11-10	+23,540	-23,321	-27,987	217,297	19.2%	24.8%	-0.47	+4,383 (+22.9%)
2025-11-04	+19,157	-22,607	-30,057	155,257	5.8%	18.1%	-0.80	-2,742 (-12.5%)
2025-10-28	+21,899	-23,520	-32,065	158,187	7.7%	20.0%	-0.56	+4,687 (+27.2%)
2025-10-21	+17,212	-23,490	-33,747	169,418	3.8%	19.0%	-0.91	-5,826 (-25.3%)
2025-10-14	+23,038	-26,013	-38,642	172,415	9.6%	23.8%	-0.44	-4,455 (-16.2%)
2025-10-07	+27,493	-24,038	-44,648	166,474	26.9%	41.0%	-0.08	-7,428 (-21.3%)
2025-09-30	+34,921	-26,823	-44,267	163,837	57.7%	65.7%	0.49	-2,178 (-5.9%)
2025-09-23	+37,099	-28,823	-43,932	165,805	65.4%	72.4%	0.66	+1,293 (+3.6%)
2025-09-16	+35,806	-27,925	-43,464	162,954	59.6%	70.5%	0.58	-49 (-0.1%)
2025-09-09	+35,855	-27,944	-45,458	156,703	59.6%	71.4%	0.60	-2,915 (-7.5%)
2025-09-02	+38,770	-29,721	-44,476	158,368	67.3%	79.0%	0.82	+5,799 (+17.6%)
2025-08-26	+32,971	-24,498	-43,787	158,630	50.0%	61.0%	0.43	+4,925 (+17.6%)
2025-08-19	+28,046	-22,577	-44,098	158,477	30.8%	47.6%	0.10	+766 (+2.8%)
2025-08-12	+27,280	-23,010	-43,411	156,432	28.8%	47.6%	0.07	-2,543 (-8.5%)
2025-08-05	+29,823	-28,811	-43,417	161,262	36.5%	52.4%	0.25	-13,201 (-30.7%)
2025-07-29	+43,024	-30,222	-48,707	170,329	78.8%	89.5%	1.14	-990 (-2.2%)
2025-07-22	+44,014	-29,827	-49,400	173,679	82.7%	91.4%	1.22	+808 (+1.9%)
2025-07-15	+43,206	-30,369	-49,279	171,474	82.7%	91.4%	1.18	+450 (+1.1%)
2025-07-08	+42,756	-27,271	-52,324	162,803	82.7%	91.4%	1.18	-2,171 (-4.8%)
2025-07-01	+44,927	-30,152	-54,388	163,567	86.5%	93.3%	1.35	-184 (-0.4%)
2025-06-24	+45,111	-34,485	-47,992	174,613	88.5%	94.3%	1.39	-3,754 (-7.7%)
2025-06-17	+48,865	-36,473	-49,475	184,831	98.1%	99.0%	1.67	+932 (+1.9%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersNonreportableProducer / MerchantOther ReportablesManaged Money