Soybean Meal

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

331.80

-0.9000 (-0.3%)

52-wk Range

100%

267.40 — 332.70

Managed Money Net

+131,556

WoW: +40,013 (+43.7%)

Producer Net

-274,598

WoW: -34,663 (-14.4%)

Swap Dealer Net

+101,339

WoW: -1,487 (-1.4%)

CIT Net

+134,518

WoW: +8,599 (+6.8%)

52-wk Percentile

100.0%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

100.0%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

2.05

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+1.15%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

52.4%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 87.7%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (100%) and managed money is heavily long (100th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

Report Date Price

332.70

+15.10 (+4.75%) WoW

52-Week Range

267.40

332.70

100%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+1.15%

Win Rate

52.4%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 26+2.75% (70%)

Week 41+2.74% (65%)

Week 53+2.21% (67%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 38-3.44% (35%)

Week 29-3.27% (30%)

Week 25-2.25% (25%)

Meal demand peaks with livestock feeding cycles. Crush margins drive supply; post-harvest (Oct–Dec) abundant crush capacity tends to pressure meal prices.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (100th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

4.99+0.00 (+0.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.60+0.01 (+0.2%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

11.4%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

1.9%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

1.0%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 7.6%WoW: -17,788 (-20.6%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Both (Strong)

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 0.50

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

1,800

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

1,073

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

1.68

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

70.5%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Confirmed

Raw Z-Score

2.05

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

100.0%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

91.4%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

1.0%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+131,556	-274,598	+101,339	+134,518	604,587	100.0%	100.0%	2.05	+40,013 (+43.7%)
2026-04-07	+91,543	-239,935	+102,826	+125,919	601,554	96.2%	90.5%	1.56	-7,339 (-7.4%)
2026-03-31	+98,882	-243,035	+101,819	+122,125	593,544	98.1%	93.3%	1.70	-7,375 (-6.9%)
2026-03-24	+106,257	-251,873	+101,116	+123,371	576,213	100.0%	99.0%	1.84	+25,345 (+31.3%)
2026-03-17	+80,912	-221,109	+98,217	+115,690	538,682	100.0%	90.5%	1.53	+3,344 (+4.3%)
2026-03-10	+77,568	-213,724	+94,307	+105,357	529,224	100.0%	90.5%	1.52	+18,464 (+31.2%)
2026-03-03	+59,104	-191,727	+101,501	+104,089	520,940	100.0%	88.6%	1.28	+28,703 (+94.4%)
2026-02-24	+30,401	-170,831	+100,388	+94,724	502,622	94.2%	78.1%	0.88	+33,545 (+1067.0%)
2026-02-17	-3,144	-143,811	+107,338	+91,898	526,303	90.4%	68.6%	0.39	+14,070 (+81.7%)
2026-02-10	-17,214	-133,328	+107,119	+84,752	530,656	86.5%	63.8%	0.18	+8,479 (+33.0%)
2026-02-03	-25,693	-122,111	+106,495	+78,103	545,729	80.8%	57.1%	0.05	+10,109 (+28.2%)
2026-01-27	-35,802	-112,006	+103,937	+70,379	533,253	78.8%	53.3%	-0.10	+7,004 (+16.4%)
2026-01-20	-42,806	-98,684	+106,945	+76,500	526,125	78.8%	51.4%	-0.21	-21,771 (-103.5%)
2026-01-13	-21,035	-114,128	+100,639	+81,092	512,376	84.6%	59.0%	0.11	+3,158 (+13.1%)
2026-01-06	-24,193	-99,672	+100,722	+87,657	490,379	84.6%	57.1%	0.05	-10,999 (-83.4%)
2025-12-30	-13,194	-108,284	+99,529	+90,787	487,814	88.5%	61.0%	0.20	+5,074 (+27.8%)
2025-12-23	-18,268	-114,829	+98,938	+93,740	520,064	88.5%	58.1%	0.11	-14,252 (-354.9%)
2025-12-16	-4,016	-125,696	+97,129	+100,384	545,173	90.4%	62.9%	0.29	-22,339 (-121.9%)
2025-12-09	+18,323	-139,246	+95,447	+103,096	557,885	94.2%	70.5%	0.58	-32,263 (-63.8%)
2025-12-02	+50,586	-164,360	+96,883	+104,995	565,658	98.1%	80.0%	1.00	-7,691 (-13.2%)
2025-11-25	+58,277	-167,923	+95,644	+105,700	571,839	100.0%	81.9%	1.07	+9,951 (+20.6%)
2025-11-18	+48,326	-177,527	+98,193	+106,200	601,776	100.0%	78.1%	0.91	+44,025 (+1023.6%)
2025-11-04	+4,301	-145,615	+100,344	+98,436	614,347	100.0%	64.8%	0.32	+55,445 (+108.4%)
2025-10-28	-51,144	-104,026	+103,586	+82,589	648,000	90.4%	44.8%	-0.41	+44,601 (+46.6%)
2025-10-21	-95,745	-71,495	+106,100	+68,165	685,723	32.7%	16.2%	-1.00	+22,728 (+19.2%)
2025-10-14	-118,473	-50,410	+107,450	+68,014	692,022	13.5%	6.7%	-1.31	-6,181 (-5.5%)
2025-10-07	-112,292	-56,862	+110,032	+70,073	673,787	13.5%	6.7%	-1.26	-822 (-0.7%)
2025-09-30	-111,470	-55,630	+107,744	+67,720	651,078	13.5%	6.7%	-1.27	-18,608 (-20.0%)
2025-09-23	-92,862	-71,201	+107,801	+75,234	645,050	34.6%	17.1%	-1.05	-11,834 (-14.6%)
2025-09-16	-81,028	-76,312	+105,313	+81,132	620,285	50.0%	24.8%	-0.92	+4,471 (+5.2%)
2025-09-09	-85,499	-70,686	+105,057	+82,999	603,624	40.4%	20.0%	-1.00	-576 (-0.7%)
2025-09-02	-84,923	-61,739	+103,634	+81,016	582,531	42.3%	21.0%	-1.01	-23,130 (-37.4%)
2025-08-26	-61,793	-79,797	+98,566	+82,491	597,422	61.5%	30.5%	-0.73	+27,300 (+30.6%)
2025-08-19	-89,093	-68,046	+99,252	+83,189	651,724	36.5%	18.1%	-1.10	+20,491 (+18.7%)
2025-08-12	-109,584	-62,806	+103,196	+87,506	665,391	13.5%	6.7%	-1.38	+21,693 (+16.5%)
2025-08-05	-131,277	-43,041	+106,931	+89,378	668,146	1.9%	1.0%	-1.70	-3,899 (-3.1%)
2025-07-29	-127,378	-41,371	+105,658	+85,537	669,952	1.9%	1.0%	-1.69	-2,757 (-2.2%)
2025-07-22	-124,621	-54,467	+107,139	+83,409	680,672	7.7%	3.8%	-1.70	+815 (+0.6%)
2025-07-15	-125,436	-53,200	+108,987	+81,993	676,257	3.8%	1.9%	-1.75	-346 (-0.3%)
2025-07-08	-125,090	-49,693	+112,047	+84,435	655,637	3.8%	1.9%	-1.79	+782 (+0.6%)
2025-07-01	-125,872	-50,930	+111,536	+84,916	640,706	1.9%	1.0%	-1.85	-19,636 (-18.5%)
2025-06-24	-106,236	-57,435	+109,362	+84,134	633,503	1.9%	1.0%	-1.63	-5,628 (-5.6%)
2025-06-17	-100,608	-75,168	+114,129	+79,551	648,374	3.8%	1.9%	-1.58	-16,616 (-19.8%)
2025-06-10	-83,992	-83,052	+109,962	+78,136	607,825	23.1%	11.4%	-1.38	+9,678 (+10.3%)
2025-06-03	-93,670	-77,562	+108,009	+76,546	605,381	15.4%	7.6%	-1.55	-2,892 (-3.2%)
2025-05-27	-90,778	-79,782	+106,838	+74,519	592,352	15.4%	7.6%	-1.55	+11,032 (+10.8%)
2025-05-20	-101,810	-72,471	+108,077	+76,190	597,395	1.9%	1.0%	-1.75	-3,704 (-3.8%)
2025-05-13	-98,106	-75,552	+108,259	+78,145	583,041	5.8%	2.9%	-1.74	+415 (+0.4%)
2025-05-06	-98,521	-70,083	+103,995	+76,529	568,530	1.9%	1.0%	-1.79	-4,200 (-4.5%)
2025-04-29	-94,321	-67,035	+102,581	+77,451	547,489	7.7%	3.8%	-1.77	-24,399 (-34.9%)
2025-04-22	-69,922	-90,361	+103,942	+78,086	604,633	19.2%	9.5%	-1.44	-3,351 (-5.0%)
2025-04-15	-66,571	-101,854	+109,148	+79,973	605,379	21.2%	10.5%	-1.42	+28,382 (+29.9%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersNonreportableOther Reportables