Soybean Meal

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-10-13

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Soybean Meal futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is high versus the last two years (98th percentile).

Crowd risk

Liquidation Risk

96.2% of Managed Money contracts are long, which raises exit-risk even if net positioning is not at a high percentile.

Price context

Price sits 81% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Strong seasonal bias for week 43. Macro is supportive.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

347.80

As of 2026-10-22 · -12.00 (-3.3%)

52-wk Range

81%

290.00 — 376.10

Managed Money Net

+204,643

WoW: -658 (-0.3%)

Producer Net

-354,743

WoW: +6,592 (+1.8%)

Swap Dealer Net

+115,153

WoW: -1,576 (-1.4%)

CIT Net

+151,112

WoW: +3,995 (+2.7%)

52-wk Percentile

96.2%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

98.1%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

2.28

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+1.90%

Week 43 · 20y avg

Seasonal Win%

75.0%

20 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Strong

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 96.2%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (81%) and managed money is heavily long (98th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

COT Baseline Price

359.80

As of 2026-10-12

-0.9000 (-0.25%) WoW

52-Week Range

290.00

376.10

81%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (43)

✅ Strong

Avg Return

+1.90%

Win Rate

75.0%(20y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 41+2.73% (67%)

Week 26+2.69% (71%)

Week 53+2.21% (67%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 29-3.07% (33%)

Week 38-3.00% (38%)

Week 33-2.15% (29%)

Meal demand peaks with livestock feeding cycles. Crush margins drive supply; post-harvest (Oct–Dec) abundant crush capacity tends to pressure meal prices.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (98th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

101.69-0.31 (-0.3%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

5.03-0.07 (-1.4%)↓

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.68+0.04 (+1.6%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

16.68+0.22 (+1.3%)↑

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-10-13	+204,643	-354,743	+115,153	+151,112	644,308	96.2%	98.1%	2.28	-658 (-0.3%)
2026-10-06	+205,301	-361,335	+116,729	+147,117	632,133	98.1%	99.0%	2.35	-2,277 (-1.1%)
2026-09-29	+207,578	-356,039	+119,663	+146,534	629,109	100.0%	100.0%	2.45	+16,491 (+8.6%)
2026-09-22	+191,087	-350,359	+118,390	+146,733	657,637	100.0%	100.0%	2.34	+7,976 (+4.4%)
2026-09-15	+183,111	-351,266	+118,747	+135,876	683,474	100.0%	100.0%	2.33	+25,422 (+16.1%)
2026-09-08	+157,689	-318,954	+118,432	+134,615	667,618	100.0%	100.0%	2.09	+510 (+0.3%)
2026-09-01	+157,179	-317,977	+115,392	+134,361	649,027	100.0%	100.0%	2.15	+61,226 (+63.8%)
2026-08-25	+95,953	-262,089	+118,287	+117,096	608,353	80.8%	88.6%	1.43	+12,638 (+15.2%)
2026-08-18	+83,315	-261,883	+120,803	+117,494	604,433	76.9%	86.7%	1.30	+9,625 (+13.1%)
2026-08-11	+73,690	-246,146	+118,320	+115,926	603,986	71.2%	83.8%	1.18	-4,140 (-5.3%)
2026-08-04	+77,830	-246,716	+115,701	+116,698	609,258	75.0%	85.7%	1.25	-9,866 (-11.3%)
2026-07-28	+87,696	-257,359	+112,525	+117,413	621,646	78.8%	87.6%	1.39	+14,220 (+19.4%)
2026-07-21	+73,476	-249,593	+114,590	+114,443	618,289	75.0%	85.7%	1.22	+26,900 (+57.8%)
2026-07-14	+46,576	-220,801	+109,549	+107,456	599,353	65.4%	77.1%	0.87	+27,854 (+148.8%)
2026-07-07	+18,722	-197,084	+110,867	+103,943	595,447	61.5%	68.6%	0.49	+13,982 (+295.0%)
2026-06-30	+4,740	-180,838	+112,300	+113,674	588,519	57.7%	61.9%	0.30	-7,619 (-61.6%)
2026-06-23	+12,359	-189,325	+111,006	+118,181	619,446	59.6%	63.8%	0.38	-7,101 (-36.5%)
2026-06-16	+19,460	-194,932	+113,905	+120,448	642,971	63.5%	66.7%	0.46	-35,987 (-64.9%)
2026-06-09	+55,447	-217,969	+108,199	+127,225	610,926	71.2%	75.2%	0.90	-71,785 (-56.4%)
2026-06-02	+127,232	-283,691	+108,048	+142,067	666,639	96.2%	98.1%	1.79	+3,639 (+2.9%)
2026-05-26	+123,593	-289,730	+108,772	+142,656	632,655	96.2%	98.1%	1.75	-6,018 (-4.6%)
2026-05-19	+129,611	-292,009	+108,247	+143,602	620,299	98.1%	99.0%	1.84	+13,448 (+11.6%)
2026-05-12	+116,163	-267,568	+105,608	+138,128	591,426	94.2%	96.2%	1.69	+3,927 (+3.5%)
2026-05-05	+112,236	-265,967	+108,678	+136,970	576,797	94.2%	96.2%	1.66	-8,823 (-7.3%)
2026-04-28	+121,059	-266,730	+106,301	+142,606	581,659	98.1%	99.0%	1.81	+2,996 (+2.5%)
2026-04-21	+118,063	-267,452	+108,433	+139,970	618,540	98.1%	98.1%	1.82	-13,493 (-10.3%)
2026-04-14	+131,556	-274,598	+101,339	+134,518	604,587	100.0%	100.0%	2.05	+40,013 (+43.7%)
2026-04-07	+91,543	-239,935	+102,826	+125,919	601,554	96.2%	90.5%	1.56	-7,339 (-7.4%)
2026-03-31	+98,882	-243,035	+101,819	+122,125	593,544	98.1%	93.3%	1.70	-7,375 (-6.9%)
2026-03-24	+106,257	-251,873	+101,116	+123,371	576,213	100.0%	99.0%	1.84	+25,345 (+31.3%)
2026-03-17	+80,912	-221,109	+98,217	+115,690	538,682	100.0%	90.5%	1.53	+3,344 (+4.3%)
2026-03-10	+77,568	-213,724	+94,307	+105,357	529,224	100.0%	90.5%	1.52	+18,464 (+31.2%)
2026-03-03	+59,104	-191,727	+101,501	+104,089	520,940	100.0%	88.6%	1.28	+28,703 (+94.4%)
2026-02-24	+30,401	-170,831	+100,388	+94,724	502,622	94.2%	78.1%	0.88	+33,545 (+1067.0%)
2026-02-17	-3,144	-143,811	+107,338	+91,898	526,303	90.4%	68.6%	0.39	+14,070 (+81.7%)
2026-02-10	-17,214	-133,328	+107,119	+84,752	530,656	86.5%	63.8%	0.18	+8,479 (+33.0%)
2026-02-03	-25,693	-122,111	+106,495	+78,103	545,729	80.8%	57.1%	0.05	+10,109 (+28.2%)
2026-01-27	-35,802	-112,006	+103,937	+70,379	533,253	78.8%	53.3%	-0.10	+7,004 (+16.4%)
2026-01-20	-42,806	-98,684	+106,945	+76,500	526,125	78.8%	51.4%	-0.21	-21,771 (-103.5%)
2026-01-13	-21,035	-114,128	+100,639	+81,092	512,376	84.6%	59.0%	0.11	+3,158 (+13.1%)
2026-01-06	-24,193	-99,672	+100,722	+87,657	490,379	84.6%	57.1%	0.05	-10,999 (-83.4%)
2025-12-30	-13,194	-108,284	+99,529	+90,787	487,814	88.5%	61.0%	0.20	+5,074 (+27.8%)
2025-12-23	-18,268	-114,829	+98,938	+93,740	520,064	88.5%	58.1%	0.11	-14,252 (-354.9%)
2025-12-16	-4,016	-125,696	+97,129	+100,384	545,173	90.4%	62.9%	0.29	-22,339 (-121.9%)
2025-12-09	+18,323	-139,246	+95,447	+103,096	557,885	94.2%	70.5%	0.58	-32,263 (-63.8%)
2025-12-02	+50,586	-164,360	+96,883	+104,995	565,658	98.1%	80.0%	1.00	-7,691 (-13.2%)
2025-11-25	+58,277	-167,923	+95,644	+105,700	571,839	100.0%	81.9%	1.07	+9,951 (+20.6%)
2025-11-18	+48,326	-177,527	+98,193	+106,200	601,776	100.0%	78.1%	0.91	+44,025 (+1023.6%)
2025-11-04	+4,301	-145,615	+100,344	+98,436	614,347	100.0%	64.8%	0.32	+55,445 (+108.4%)
2025-10-28	-51,144	-104,026	+103,586	+82,589	648,000	90.4%	44.8%	-0.41	+44,601 (+46.6%)
2025-10-21	-95,745	-71,495	+106,100	+68,165	685,723	32.7%	16.2%	-1.00	+22,728 (+19.2%)
2025-10-14	-118,473	-50,410	+107,450	+68,014	692,022	13.5%	6.7%	-1.31	-6,181 (-5.5%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersNonreportableOther Reportables