Soybean Oil

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

68.16

-1.17 (-1.7%)

52-wk Range

100%

46.89 — 69.33

Managed Money Net

+150,217

WoW: +1,860 (+1.3%)

Producer Net

-220,626

WoW: +6,278 (+2.8%)

Swap Dealer Net

+62,972

WoW: +220 (+0.4%)

CIT Net

+104,845

WoW: +2,790 (+2.7%)

52-wk Percentile

100.0%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

100.0%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

2.68

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+1.57%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

57.1%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongClassic SetupMM Long Concentration: 89.8%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (100%) and managed money is heavily long (100th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

Report Date Price

69.33

+1.63 (+2.41%) WoW

52-Week Range

46.89

69.33

100%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+1.57%

Win Rate

57.1%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 53+2.48% (67%)

Week 6+1.68% (71%)

Week 16+1.57% (57%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 36-2.09% (25%)

Week 33-1.38% (45%)

Week 39-1.34% (30%)

Biodiesel blending mandates and palm oil seasonality (low output Feb–Apr) create Q1 strength. Post-harvest crush season (Oct–Dec) increases supply and pressures prices.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (100th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

4.99+0.00 (+0.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.60+0.01 (+0.2%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

16.1%

High

Producer 52-wk %ile

3.8%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

2.9%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:MediumSpread percentile: 60.0%WoW: -7,904 (-6.4%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Covered

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 1.10

Concentration Risk

Concentration Danger — few large players holding crowded long

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

1,843

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

880

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

2.09

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

100.0%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Confirmed

Raw Z-Score

2.68

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

100.0%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

100.0%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

1.0%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+150,217	-220,626	+62,972	+104,845	722,682	100.0%	100.0%	2.68	+1,860 (+1.3%)
2026-04-07	+148,357	-226,904	+62,752	+102,055	730,818	100.0%	100.0%	2.77	+18,401 (+14.2%)
2026-03-31	+129,956	-215,507	+66,558	+102,515	741,746	100.0%	100.0%	2.54	+11,460 (+9.7%)
2026-03-24	+118,496	-200,327	+69,772	+100,766	738,609	98.1%	99.0%	2.41	-1,114 (-0.9%)
2026-03-17	+119,610	-208,171	+72,833	+106,329	729,392	100.0%	100.0%	2.53	+15,728 (+15.1%)
2026-03-10	+103,882	-188,247	+73,269	+111,524	721,541	100.0%	100.0%	2.28	+35,689 (+52.3%)
2026-03-03	+68,193	-162,713	+76,934	+120,449	712,331	100.0%	99.0%	1.56	+10,879 (+19.0%)
2026-02-24	+57,314	-162,150	+81,534	+119,014	717,299	92.3%	93.3%	1.35	+20,605 (+56.1%)
2026-02-17	+36,709	-142,269	+79,389	+113,811	713,795	65.4%	75.2%	0.91	+7,251 (+24.6%)
2026-02-10	+29,458	-134,387	+71,457	+113,026	695,631	57.7%	71.4%	0.76	+22,192 (+305.4%)
2026-02-03	+7,266	-107,205	+67,252	+103,760	667,851	44.2%	58.1%	0.27	-3,281 (-31.1%)
2026-01-27	+10,547	-116,137	+70,521	+115,063	662,084	46.2%	62.9%	0.36	+36,949 (+139.9%)
2026-01-20	-26,402	-84,064	+79,019	+109,982	649,710	15.4%	38.1%	-0.46	+27,690 (+51.2%)
2026-01-13	-54,092	-69,424	+92,163	+107,607	642,121	7.7%	17.1%	-1.07	+11,724 (+17.8%)
2026-01-06	-65,816	-52,890	+106,666	+118,829	639,134	3.8%	8.6%	-1.34	+1,156 (+1.7%)
2025-12-30	-66,972	-46,858	+110,997	+120,935	630,045	1.9%	6.7%	-1.37	-4,920 (-7.9%)
2025-12-23	-62,052	-45,701	+106,576	+120,176	662,742	1.9%	9.5%	-1.28	-26,237 (-73.3%)
2025-12-16	-35,815	-67,807	+102,564	+123,302	667,726	3.8%	31.4%	-0.70	-27,283 (-319.8%)
2025-12-09	-8,532	-113,665	+101,495	+130,893	658,799	19.2%	47.6%	-0.08	-2,723 (-46.9%)
2025-12-02	-5,809	-120,608	+103,382	+131,805	683,096	19.2%	47.6%	-0.02	+14,307 (+71.1%)
2025-11-25	-20,116	-95,738	+99,227	+123,433	692,473	13.5%	40.0%	-0.35	-8,708 (-76.3%)
2025-11-18	-11,408	-119,058	+97,874	+118,421	737,253	15.4%	45.7%	-0.15	+11,274 (+49.7%)
2025-11-04	-22,682	-103,879	+96,552	+105,388	695,548	9.6%	38.1%	-0.41	-22,564 (-19122.0%)
2025-10-28	-118	-127,485	+93,530	+111,095	675,609	17.3%	51.4%	0.10	-1,564 (-108.2%)
2025-10-21	+1,446	-134,956	+96,164	+115,304	661,607	19.2%	53.3%	0.14	-2,488 (-63.2%)
2025-10-14	+3,934	-137,811	+98,562	+117,906	625,438	21.2%	54.3%	0.19	-2,749 (-41.1%)
2025-10-07	+6,683	-144,915	+102,741	+123,073	612,118	23.1%	56.2%	0.24	+7,390 (+1045.3%)
2025-09-30	-707	-134,102	+104,741	+126,061	619,379	15.4%	50.5%	0.07	-2,517 (-139.1%)
2025-09-23	+1,810	-136,429	+103,945	+128,595	642,066	17.3%	52.4%	0.12	-16,103 (-89.9%)
2025-09-16	+17,913	-157,596	+102,591	+131,989	641,441	30.8%	61.0%	0.47	+13,499 (+305.8%)
2025-09-09	+4,414	-145,204	+104,832	+127,517	631,776	21.2%	52.4%	0.16	-10,508 (-70.4%)
2025-09-02	+14,922	-154,581	+99,893	+123,561	606,808	30.8%	59.0%	0.38	-13,381 (-47.3%)
2025-08-26	+28,303	-163,190	+99,554	+124,612	604,231	40.4%	64.8%	0.66	-4,574 (-13.9%)
2025-08-19	+32,877	-160,351	+100,828	+124,333	612,673	46.2%	66.7%	0.75	-12,113 (-26.9%)
2025-08-12	+44,990	-179,527	+102,452	+124,237	615,090	71.2%	81.0%	1.01	-8,724 (-16.2%)
2025-08-05	+53,714	-182,036	+96,018	+128,093	621,782	78.8%	86.7%	1.20	-8,394 (-13.5%)
2025-07-29	+62,108	-199,951	+96,492	+130,498	637,235	94.2%	97.1%	1.38	+7,924 (+14.6%)
2025-07-22	+54,184	-189,935	+99,845	+130,664	634,023	82.7%	87.6%	1.21	+12,563 (+30.2%)
2025-07-15	+41,621	-178,823	+102,342	+129,302	616,368	69.2%	74.3%	0.94	+4,398 (+11.8%)
2025-07-08	+37,223	-168,036	+99,286	+125,456	605,578	63.5%	70.5%	0.84	-1,903 (-4.9%)
2025-07-01	+39,126	-168,725	+99,481	+124,467	602,310	65.4%	70.5%	0.88	-4,649 (-10.6%)
2025-06-24	+43,775	-170,720	+97,198	+124,183	594,109	71.2%	76.2%	0.99	-580 (-1.3%)
2025-06-17	+44,355	-173,372	+100,930	+125,328	596,843	73.1%	77.1%	1.01	+18,161 (+69.3%)
2025-06-10	+26,194	-149,354	+102,322	+118,871	581,794	57.7%	63.8%	0.63	-7,640 (-22.6%)
2025-06-03	+33,834	-151,753	+103,964	+121,120	595,753	65.4%	69.5%	0.81	-20,744 (-38.0%)
2025-05-27	+54,578	-175,290	+105,589	+130,813	601,583	84.6%	88.6%	1.28	-1,018 (-1.8%)
2025-05-20	+55,596	-180,917	+106,685	+138,397	594,907	86.5%	90.5%	1.33	-11,058 (-16.6%)
2025-05-13	+66,654	-188,617	+104,805	+136,907	584,996	98.1%	99.0%	1.61	+8,858 (+15.3%)
2025-05-06	+57,796	-181,065	+105,426	+143,126	576,761	94.2%	96.2%	1.44	-6,239 (-9.7%)
2025-04-29	+64,035	-183,763	+103,119	+140,533	547,896	98.1%	99.0%	1.62	+8,363 (+15.0%)
2025-04-22	+55,672	-168,369	+101,480	+137,900	560,911	94.2%	94.3%	1.46	+11,131 (+25.0%)
2025-04-15	+44,541	-163,351	+101,045	+133,901	567,609	86.5%	83.8%	1.23	+12,084 (+37.2%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersNonreportableOther Reportables