Soybeans

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-10-13

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Soybeans futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is high versus the last two years (97th percentile).

Crowd risk

Liquidation Risk

89.0% of Managed Money contracts are long, which raises exit-risk even if net positioning is not at a high percentile.

Price context

Price sits 80% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Strong seasonal bias for week 43. Macro is supportive.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

1253.50

As of 2026-10-22 · -9.50 (-0.8%)

52-wk Range

80%

1029.50 — 1319.75

Managed Money Net

+249,807

WoW: -8,259 (-3.2%)

Producer Net

-302,978

WoW: +8,789 (+2.8%)

Swap Dealer Net

+57,239

WoW: -4,531 (-7.3%)

CIT Net

+153,246

WoW: -7,440 (-4.6%)

52-wk Percentile

94.2%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

97.1%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

1.81

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+0.96%

Week 43 · 20y avg

Seasonal Win%

65.0%

20 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Strong

Swap Net: LongClassic SetupMM Long Concentration: 89.0%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (80%) and managed money is heavily long (97th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

COT Baseline Price

1263.00

As of 2026-10-12

-24.50 (-1.90%) WoW

52-Week Range

1029.50

1319.75

80%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (43)

✅ Strong

Avg Return

+0.96%

Win Rate

65.0%(20y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 53+2.56% (67%)

Week 37+2.26% (71%)

Week 26+1.99% (71%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 38-2.54% (38%)

Week 33-2.49% (38%)

Week 29-2.19% (33%)

South American harvest (Mar–May) tends to weigh on prices, while North American planting (May–Jun) and pod-fill (Aug) create weather-premium rallies.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (97th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

101.61-0.39 (-0.4%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

5.04-0.05 (-1.1%)↓

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.72+0.08 (+2.8%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

19.06+2.60 (+15.8%)↑

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-10-13	+249,807	-302,978	+57,239	+153,246	1,072,235	94.2%	97.1%	1.81	-8,259 (-3.2%)
2026-10-06	+258,066	-311,767	+61,770	+160,686	1,121,298	98.1%	99.0%	1.94	+11,508 (+4.7%)
2026-09-29	+246,558	-291,145	+58,170	+167,360	1,090,227	96.2%	98.1%	1.87	-18,601 (-7.0%)
2026-09-22	+265,159	-322,240	+64,696	+177,003	1,114,328	100.0%	100.0%	2.10	+23,658 (+9.8%)
2026-09-15	+241,501	-312,329	+73,754	+179,912	1,104,880	98.1%	99.0%	1.90	-15,757 (-6.1%)
2026-09-08	+257,258	-342,895	+91,345	+212,574	1,070,401	100.0%	100.0%	2.09	+22,338 (+9.5%)
2026-09-01	+234,920	-337,308	+108,566	+222,880	1,027,541	100.0%	100.0%	1.89	+34,241 (+17.1%)
2026-08-25	+200,679	-304,396	+104,460	+200,258	972,531	86.5%	93.3%	1.56	+48,897 (+32.2%)
2026-08-18	+151,782	-273,666	+104,029	+183,592	989,729	55.8%	78.1%	1.08	+42,673 (+39.1%)
2026-08-11	+109,109	-252,346	+112,712	+177,979	982,903	46.2%	73.3%	0.66	-23,415 (-17.7%)
2026-08-04	+132,524	-270,063	+113,311	+184,554	990,408	55.8%	78.1%	0.90	-27,955 (-17.4%)
2026-07-28	+160,479	-298,147	+105,940	+185,825	1,020,108	63.5%	81.9%	1.19	+29,974 (+23.0%)
2026-07-21	+130,505	-265,958	+112,977	+190,863	1,045,077	57.7%	79.0%	0.92	+55,314 (+73.6%)
2026-07-14	+75,191	-207,561	+106,547	+177,340	1,004,746	48.1%	74.3%	0.41	+5,612 (+8.1%)
2026-07-07	+69,579	-201,289	+115,704	+184,047	975,954	48.1%	72.4%	0.37	+31,430 (+82.4%)
2026-06-30	+38,149	-164,894	+117,711	+196,752	898,681	44.2%	61.0%	0.09	+1,163 (+3.1%)
2026-06-23	+36,986	-201,304	+128,648	+217,853	1,006,834	42.3%	60.0%	0.09	-17,508 (-32.1%)
2026-06-16	+54,494	-214,081	+124,436	+219,946	1,020,288	44.2%	65.7%	0.26	-43,365 (-44.3%)
2026-06-09	+97,859	-252,670	+130,550	+231,275	1,016,125	51.9%	76.2%	0.67	-57,921 (-37.2%)
2026-06-02	+155,780	-282,650	+117,760	+251,293	1,054,882	61.5%	81.0%	1.21	-28,449 (-15.4%)
2026-05-26	+184,229	-297,745	+121,135	+252,766	1,027,526	73.1%	86.7%	1.50	-13,808 (-7.0%)
2026-05-19	+198,037	-304,804	+121,538	+246,876	1,023,176	86.5%	93.3%	1.66	-9,986 (-4.8%)
2026-05-12	+208,023	-300,379	+112,276	+231,092	990,996	90.4%	95.2%	1.80	-5,491 (-2.6%)
2026-05-05	+213,514	-311,588	+107,043	+221,662	975,385	94.2%	97.1%	1.89	+36,604 (+20.7%)
2026-04-28	+176,910	-271,310	+105,131	+209,201	907,541	76.9%	88.6%	1.58	-10,663 (-5.7%)
2026-04-21	+187,573	-284,012	+101,106	+207,753	1,000,958	84.6%	92.4%	1.72	+19,492 (+11.6%)
2026-04-14	+168,081	-286,600	+113,597	+211,817	999,909	76.9%	88.6%	1.57	-13,224 (-7.3%)
2026-04-07	+181,305	-288,059	+110,887	+222,182	999,742	80.8%	90.5%	1.73	-22,703 (-11.1%)
2026-03-31	+204,008	-300,903	+106,458	+219,674	981,250	92.3%	96.2%	1.99	+12,658 (+6.6%)
2026-03-24	+191,350	-294,560	+112,292	+215,217	959,188	90.4%	95.2%	1.92	-3,871 (-2.0%)
2026-03-17	+195,221	-296,896	+106,395	+214,512	980,259	92.3%	96.2%	2.01	-16,233 (-7.7%)
2026-03-10	+211,454	-302,155	+106,540	+219,397	1,016,277	94.2%	97.1%	2.23	+23,963 (+12.8%)
2026-03-03	+187,491	-297,453	+108,594	+215,370	987,365	92.3%	96.2%	2.05	+16,099 (+9.4%)
2026-02-24	+171,392	-274,452	+98,924	+199,807	959,299	90.4%	95.2%	1.94	+12,411 (+7.8%)
2026-02-17	+158,981	-263,734	+105,963	+191,108	984,660	90.4%	95.2%	1.87	+43,085 (+37.2%)
2026-02-10	+115,896	-231,365	+112,458	+183,539	935,448	86.5%	93.3%	1.46	+86,743 (+297.5%)
2026-02-03	+29,153	-163,925	+120,653	+172,519	883,178	51.9%	73.3%	0.57	+9,359 (+47.3%)
2026-01-27	+19,794	-161,612	+124,538	+169,223	858,833	46.2%	71.4%	0.48	+5,170 (+35.4%)
2026-01-20	+14,624	-165,886	+126,098	+170,942	836,880	42.3%	70.5%	0.43	-5,361 (-26.8%)
2026-01-13	+19,985	-171,677	+132,192	+180,915	814,218	44.2%	72.4%	0.49	-45,822 (-69.6%)
2026-01-06	+65,807	-218,434	+128,119	+185,776	782,429	76.9%	88.6%	0.99	-24,201 (-26.9%)
2025-12-30	+90,008	-232,935	+121,046	+190,599	776,599	84.6%	92.4%	1.26	-22,253 (-19.8%)
2025-12-23	+112,261	-259,690	+109,382	+186,932	845,580	86.5%	93.3%	1.52	-42,713 (-27.6%)
2025-12-16	+154,974	-292,227	+116,966	+196,169	880,590	90.4%	95.2%	2.00	-35,151 (-18.5%)
2025-12-09	+190,125	-311,970	+117,759	+200,092	931,309	94.2%	97.1%	2.44	-37,162 (-16.4%)
2025-12-02	+227,287	-337,406	+112,605	+198,442	957,611	98.1%	99.0%	2.93	+1,817 (+0.8%)
2025-11-25	+225,470	-335,620	+116,695	+201,789	948,676	98.1%	99.0%	3.03	-8,007 (-3.4%)
2025-11-18	+233,477	-345,991	+116,109	+205,272	965,793	100.0%	100.0%	3.25	+48,411 (+26.2%)
2025-11-04	+185,066	-309,901	+114,499	+202,081	882,696	100.0%	100.0%	2.80	+65,047 (+54.2%)
2025-10-28	+120,019	-253,026	+115,648	+186,646	878,206	100.0%	100.0%	2.07	+82,526 (+220.1%)
2025-10-21	+37,493	-172,894	+113,140	+161,269	943,984	76.9%	83.8%	1.01	+34,867 (+1327.8%)
2025-10-14	+2,626	-149,904	+123,570	+166,250	977,612	53.8%	67.6%	0.55	-1,275 (-32.7%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersNonreportableOther Reportables