Soybeans

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

1167.25

+3.50 (+0.3%)

52-wk Range

81%

961.75 — 1211.00

Managed Money Net

+168,081

WoW: -13,224 (-7.3%)

Producer Net

-286,600

WoW: +1,459 (+0.5%)

Swap Dealer Net

+113,597

WoW: +2,710 (+2.4%)

CIT Net

+211,817

WoW: -10,365 (-4.7%)

52-wk Percentile

76.9%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

88.6%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

1.57

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+0.89%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

57.1%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 84.5%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (81%) and managed money is heavily long (89th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

Report Date Price

1163.75

-1.50 (-0.13%) WoW

52-Week Range

961.75

1211.00

81%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.89%

Win Rate

57.1%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 53+2.56% (67%)

Week 37+2.33% (70%)

Week 26+2.15% (75%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 38-2.68% (35%)

Week 33-2.66% (35%)

Week 29-2.36% (30%)

South American harvest (Mar–May) tends to weigh on prices, while North American planting (May–Jun) and pod-fill (Aug) create weather-premium rallies.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is elevated (89th percentile — leaning bearish) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

4.99+0.00 (+0.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.60+0.01 (+0.2%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

12.0%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

25.0%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

12.4%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 33.3%WoW: -16,507 (-12.1%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: -1.12

Concentration Risk

Concentration Danger — few large players holding crowded long

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

2,289

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

998

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

2.29

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

97.1%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

1.57

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

88.6%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

86.7%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

5.7%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+168,081	-286,600	+113,597	+211,817	999,909	76.9%	88.6%	1.57	-13,224 (-7.3%)
2026-04-07	+181,305	-288,059	+110,887	+222,182	999,742	80.8%	90.5%	1.73	-22,703 (-11.1%)
2026-03-31	+204,008	-300,903	+106,458	+219,674	981,250	92.3%	96.2%	1.99	+12,658 (+6.6%)
2026-03-24	+191,350	-294,560	+112,292	+215,217	959,188	90.4%	95.2%	1.92	-3,871 (-2.0%)
2026-03-17	+195,221	-296,896	+106,395	+214,512	980,259	92.3%	96.2%	2.01	-16,233 (-7.7%)
2026-03-10	+211,454	-302,155	+106,540	+219,397	1,016,277	94.2%	97.1%	2.23	+23,963 (+12.8%)
2026-03-03	+187,491	-297,453	+108,594	+215,370	987,365	92.3%	96.2%	2.05	+16,099 (+9.4%)
2026-02-24	+171,392	-274,452	+98,924	+199,807	959,299	90.4%	95.2%	1.94	+12,411 (+7.8%)
2026-02-17	+158,981	-263,734	+105,963	+191,108	984,660	90.4%	95.2%	1.87	+43,085 (+37.2%)
2026-02-10	+115,896	-231,365	+112,458	+183,539	935,448	86.5%	93.3%	1.46	+86,743 (+297.5%)
2026-02-03	+29,153	-163,925	+120,653	+172,519	883,178	51.9%	73.3%	0.57	+9,359 (+47.3%)
2026-01-27	+19,794	-161,612	+124,538	+169,223	858,833	46.2%	71.4%	0.48	+5,170 (+35.4%)
2026-01-20	+14,624	-165,886	+126,098	+170,942	836,880	42.3%	70.5%	0.43	-5,361 (-26.8%)
2026-01-13	+19,985	-171,677	+132,192	+180,915	814,218	44.2%	72.4%	0.49	-45,822 (-69.6%)
2026-01-06	+65,807	-218,434	+128,119	+185,776	782,429	76.9%	88.6%	0.99	-24,201 (-26.9%)
2025-12-30	+90,008	-232,935	+121,046	+190,599	776,599	84.6%	92.4%	1.26	-22,253 (-19.8%)
2025-12-23	+112,261	-259,690	+109,382	+186,932	845,580	86.5%	93.3%	1.52	-42,713 (-27.6%)
2025-12-16	+154,974	-292,227	+116,966	+196,169	880,590	90.4%	95.2%	2.00	-35,151 (-18.5%)
2025-12-09	+190,125	-311,970	+117,759	+200,092	931,309	94.2%	97.1%	2.44	-37,162 (-16.4%)
2025-12-02	+227,287	-337,406	+112,605	+198,442	957,611	98.1%	99.0%	2.93	+1,817 (+0.8%)
2025-11-25	+225,470	-335,620	+116,695	+201,789	948,676	98.1%	99.0%	3.03	-8,007 (-3.4%)
2025-11-18	+233,477	-345,991	+116,109	+205,272	965,793	100.0%	100.0%	3.25	+48,411 (+26.2%)
2025-11-04	+185,066	-309,901	+114,499	+202,081	882,696	100.0%	100.0%	2.80	+65,047 (+54.2%)
2025-10-28	+120,019	-253,026	+115,648	+186,646	878,206	100.0%	100.0%	2.07	+82,526 (+220.1%)
2025-10-21	+37,493	-172,894	+113,140	+161,269	943,984	76.9%	83.8%	1.01	+34,867 (+1327.8%)
2025-10-14	+2,626	-149,904	+123,570	+166,250	977,612	53.8%	67.6%	0.55	-1,275 (-32.7%)
2025-10-07	+3,901	-142,033	+121,312	+169,923	943,056	55.8%	68.6%	0.57	+35,494 (+112.3%)
2025-09-30	-31,593	-100,366	+121,969	+166,526	932,138	25.0%	46.7%	0.09	-6,851 (-27.7%)
2025-09-23	-24,742	-118,434	+125,805	+172,881	925,006	36.5%	52.4%	0.17	-24,930 (-13260.6%)
2025-09-16	+188	-133,835	+125,542	+177,538	895,633	55.8%	65.7%	0.50	+13,570 (+101.4%)
2025-09-09	-13,382	-120,341	+125,274	+173,547	866,412	50.0%	58.1%	0.31	-24,798 (-217.2%)
2025-09-02	+11,416	-124,146	+117,474	+175,209	862,506	61.5%	69.5%	0.62	-7,729 (-40.4%)
2025-08-26	+19,145	-121,922	+121,279	+176,247	861,446	65.4%	71.4%	0.70	+20,898 (+1192.1%)
2025-08-19	-1,753	-126,696	+122,491	+168,079	894,160	59.6%	62.9%	0.42	+24,470 (+93.3%)
2025-08-12	-26,223	-96,316	+126,834	+156,894	880,351	42.3%	49.5%	0.10	+27,371 (+51.1%)
2025-08-05	-53,594	-78,048	+132,941	+165,697	852,135	26.9%	37.1%	-0.26	-28,822 (-116.3%)
2025-07-29	-24,772	-97,413	+125,323	+170,611	852,812	46.2%	49.5%	0.09	-33,881 (-372.0%)
2025-07-22	+9,109	-135,922	+117,511	+166,700	898,005	63.5%	63.8%	0.49	+26,301 (+153.0%)
2025-07-15	-17,192	-116,195	+116,113	+158,629	881,394	55.8%	53.3%	0.15	-24,376 (-339.3%)
2025-07-08	+7,184	-136,021	+113,660	+162,956	845,981	63.5%	61.9%	0.44	-6,717 (-48.3%)
2025-07-01	+13,901	-141,379	+115,782	+161,704	846,236	65.4%	63.8%	0.50	-21,495 (-60.7%)
2025-06-24	+35,396	-156,075	+113,518	+170,237	838,160	76.9%	71.4%	0.75	-26,893 (-43.2%)
2025-06-17	+62,289	-170,589	+100,642	+162,314	846,169	94.2%	83.8%	1.07	+27,218 (+77.6%)
2025-06-10	+35,071	-172,563	+114,445	+158,097	858,945	78.8%	71.4%	0.75	+467 (+1.3%)
2025-06-03	+34,604	-162,978	+118,601	+157,216	876,302	78.8%	71.4%	0.75	-26,315 (-43.2%)
2025-05-27	+60,919	-179,944	+118,808	+160,842	859,854	94.2%	83.8%	1.08	+29,589 (+94.4%)
2025-05-20	+31,330	-155,596	+120,880	+157,869	844,860	78.8%	70.5%	0.73	-24,337 (-43.7%)
2025-05-13	+55,667	-166,197	+114,221	+151,837	822,498	90.4%	81.9%	1.02	+13,939 (+33.4%)
2025-05-06	+41,728	-146,280	+115,322	+146,973	778,000	84.6%	74.3%	0.85	-17,200 (-29.2%)
2025-04-29	+58,928	-155,074	+116,098	+143,030	752,688	94.2%	82.9%	1.05	+5,683 (+10.7%)
2025-04-22	+53,245	-147,067	+115,615	+137,384	813,041	92.3%	79.0%	0.96	+9,897 (+22.8%)
2025-04-15	+43,348	-147,848	+121,138	+134,541	815,871	92.3%	75.2%	0.82	+70,682 (+258.6%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantManaged MoneySwap DealersOther ReportablesNonreportable