Sugar No. 11

Neutral

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-06-09

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Price

13.70

-0.0900 (-0.7%)

52-wk Range

13.60 — 16.82

Managed Money Net

-123,713

WoW: -4,981 (-4.2%)

Producer Net

-96,318

WoW: -2,724 (-2.9%)

Swap Dealer Net

+202,733

WoW: +2,440 (+1.2%)

CIT Net

+221,317

WoW: -10,239 (-4.4%)

52-wk Percentile

59.6%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

29.5%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-0.76

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

-0.13%

Week 24 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

42.9%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongNeutralMM Long Concentration: 35.5%

Price Context

Price is in the lower half of its range (6%) with moderate-to-bearish positioning (30th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

Report Date Price

13.79

-0.4800 (-3.36%) WoW

52-Week Range

13.60

16.82

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (24)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

-0.13%

Win Rate

42.9%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 40+5.65% (90%)

Week 27+3.45% (70%)

Week 39+1.88% (65%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 10-2.91% (24%)

Week 9-1.91% (24%)

Week 49-1.47% (40%)

Brazil's cane harvest (Apr–Nov) is the dominant supply driver. Inter-harvest period (Dec–Mar) often sees tighter supply and firmer prices.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is mid-range (30th percentile) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

99.75-0.11 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

5.06-0.05 (-1.0%)↓

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.70-0.01 (-0.4%)↓

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.68-1.76 (-9.1%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

11.3%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

11.5%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

20.0%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:MediumSpread percentile: 57.1%WoW: +4,440 (+4.0%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: -0.32

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

2,867

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

4,307

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

0.67

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

42.9%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

-0.76

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

29.5%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

65.7%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

78.1%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-06-09	-123,713	-96,318	+202,733	+221,317	1,009,892	59.6%	29.5%	-0.76	-4,981 (-4.2%)
2026-06-02	-118,732	-93,594	+200,293	+231,556	979,429	59.6%	29.5%	-0.72	-29,630 (-33.3%)
2026-05-26	-89,102	-124,976	+203,268	+249,025	967,447	80.8%	40.0%	-0.44	-5,233 (-6.2%)
2026-05-19	-83,869	-129,523	+200,968	+239,944	970,925	82.7%	41.0%	-0.39	+11,702 (+12.2%)
2026-05-12	-95,571	-120,408	+206,467	+227,350	961,423	67.3%	33.3%	-0.52	+15,986 (+14.3%)
2026-05-05	-111,557	-116,852	+201,826	+220,566	969,640	59.6%	29.5%	-0.69	+63,043 (+36.1%)
2026-04-28	-174,600	-66,540	+201,829	+184,351	972,678	26.9%	13.3%	-1.32	+120 (+0.1%)
2026-04-21	-174,720	-46,502	+199,345	+191,208	978,152	25.0%	12.4%	-1.35	-40,974 (-30.6%)
2026-04-14	-133,746	-38,361	+171,803	+215,016	946,729	48.1%	23.8%	-0.97	-77,888 (-139.4%)
2026-04-07	-55,858	-89,681	+156,935	+239,052	924,257	78.8%	39.0%	-0.21	-15,064 (-36.9%)
2026-03-31	-40,794	-99,020	+148,657	+237,502	927,493	78.8%	43.8%	-0.08	+32,376 (+44.2%)
2026-03-24	-73,170	-70,038	+146,367	+238,807	940,662	75.0%	37.1%	-0.40	+124,969 (+63.1%)
2026-03-17	-198,139	+9,053	+191,015	+207,397	1,005,609	13.5%	6.7%	-1.64	+4,224 (+2.1%)
2026-03-10	-202,363	+6,127	+200,537	+204,348	1,035,892	7.7%	3.8%	-1.73	+35,854 (+15.1%)
2026-03-03	-238,217	+52,376	+198,943	+190,968	1,048,631	1.9%	1.0%	-2.13	-5,901 (-2.5%)
2026-02-24	-232,316	+48,084	+211,655	+205,050	1,054,389	1.9%	1.0%	-2.14	-554 (-0.2%)
2026-02-17	-231,762	+75,402	+190,422	+209,089	1,099,675	1.9%	1.0%	-2.20	-31,728 (-15.9%)
2026-02-10	-200,034	+84,850	+173,559	+207,273	1,095,771	1.9%	1.0%	-1.94	-23,334 (-13.2%)
2026-02-03	-176,700	+66,157	+169,877	+211,191	1,059,582	9.6%	4.8%	-1.75	-44,259 (-33.4%)
2026-01-27	-132,441	+17,591	+159,162	+211,862	1,006,304	34.6%	17.1%	-1.31	+13,813 (+9.4%)
2026-01-20	-146,254	+31,282	+158,948	+217,853	985,716	23.1%	11.4%	-1.49	-8,778 (-6.4%)
2026-01-13	-137,476	+25,905	+150,368	+208,580	970,010	28.8%	14.3%	-1.42	+60 (+0.0%)
2026-01-06	-137,536	+34,369	+125,847	+179,928	943,170	26.9%	13.3%	-1.45	-6,608 (-5.0%)
2025-12-30	-130,928	+24,228	+120,934	+177,333	923,101	28.8%	14.3%	-1.41	+17,814 (+12.0%)
2025-12-23	-148,742	+32,223	+121,761	+169,792	938,797	21.2%	10.5%	-1.65	+15,624 (+9.5%)
2025-12-16	-164,366	+37,263	+128,708	+172,690	942,193	15.4%	7.6%	-1.87	+11,593 (+6.6%)
2025-12-09	-175,959	+54,928	+133,101	+168,526	941,986	9.6%	4.8%	-2.05	+7,900 (+4.3%)
2025-12-02	-183,859	+56,794	+131,607	+169,202	951,437	7.7%	3.8%	-2.19	+13,036 (+6.6%)
2025-11-25	-196,895	+64,377	+133,257	+168,757	946,665	3.8%	1.9%	-2.39	-5,198 (-2.7%)
2025-11-18	-191,697	+63,851	+130,536	+169,931	941,444	3.8%	1.9%	-2.39	+7,485 (+3.8%)
2025-11-04	-199,182	+78,049	+125,847	+181,154	929,991	1.9%	1.0%	-2.54	-29,441 (-17.3%)
2025-10-28	-169,741	+61,255	+115,960	+173,869	898,257	1.9%	1.0%	-2.26	-15,440 (-10.0%)
2025-10-21	-154,301	+46,569	+107,951	+175,270	880,454	3.8%	1.9%	-2.12	+11,449 (+6.9%)
2025-10-14	-165,750	+49,790	+96,703	+169,874	867,493	1.9%	1.0%	-2.31	-24,413 (-17.3%)
2025-10-07	-141,337	+22,261	+87,123	+164,215	834,349	5.8%	2.9%	-2.07	-5,239 (-3.8%)
2025-09-30	-136,098	+22,788	+84,285	+163,218	859,715	5.8%	2.9%	-2.05	+14,809 (+9.8%)
2025-09-23	-150,907	+47,281	+80,849	+168,338	898,935	1.9%	1.0%	-2.27	-24,637 (-19.5%)
2025-09-16	-126,270	+40,974	+71,424	+181,887	918,579	3.8%	1.9%	-2.02	+18,616 (+12.8%)
2025-09-09	-144,886	+95,828	+44,256	+173,001	954,758	1.9%	1.0%	-2.28	-44,324 (-44.1%)
2025-09-02	-100,562	+54,218	+34,357	+186,994	940,447	5.8%	2.9%	-1.79	-8,316 (-9.0%)
2025-08-26	-92,246	+34,068	+41,734	+184,207	915,782	11.5%	5.7%	-1.72	-2,312 (-2.6%)
2025-08-19	-89,934	+30,867	+41,562	+183,611	901,121	13.5%	6.7%	-1.74	-2,894 (-3.3%)
2025-08-12	-87,040	+26,114	+37,894	+178,291	898,919	13.5%	6.7%	-1.74	+18,720 (+17.7%)
2025-08-05	-105,760	+40,051	+49,478	+182,461	888,761	1.9%	1.0%	-2.02	-13,261 (-14.3%)
2025-07-29	-92,499	+19,774	+47,173	+186,943	872,591	5.8%	2.9%	-1.91	-78 (-0.1%)
2025-07-22	-92,421	+23,296	+48,735	+182,831	866,505	5.8%	2.9%	-1.95	-1,761 (-1.9%)
2025-07-15	-90,660	+15,756	+49,643	+182,476	866,727	5.8%	2.9%	-1.98	+2,420 (+2.6%)
2025-07-08	-93,080	+18,001	+56,392	+182,335	850,532	3.8%	1.9%	-2.07	+12,517 (+11.9%)
2025-07-01	-105,597	+14,025	+62,104	+185,594	840,169	1.9%	1.0%	-2.29	-27,108 (-34.5%)
2025-06-24	-78,489	+3,125	+48,282	+188,758	860,131	1.9%	1.0%	-1.98	-12,383 (-18.7%)
2025-06-17	-66,106	-2,519	+53,745	+186,792	877,614	1.9%	1.0%	-1.85	-35,081 (-113.1%)
2025-06-10	-31,025	+20,012	+6,356	+167,265	903,273	9.6%	7.6%	-1.41	-19,389 (-166.6%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersManaged MoneyProducer / MerchantOther ReportablesNonreportable