Sugar No. 11

Neutral

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

13.31

-0.3500 (-2.6%)

52-wk Range

13.66 — 18.18

Managed Money Net

-133,746

WoW: -77,888 (-139.4%)

Producer Net

-38,361

WoW: +51,320 (+57.2%)

Swap Dealer Net

+171,803

WoW: +14,868 (+9.5%)

CIT Net

+215,016

WoW: -24,036 (-10.1%)

52-wk Percentile

48.1%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

23.8%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

-0.97

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

-0.34%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

38.1%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongNeutralMM Long Concentration: 32.2%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week lows (0%) and managed money is heavily short (24th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bearish. Contrarian bounce potential increases at these extremes.

Report Date Price

13.66

-0.2600 (-1.87%) WoW

52-Week Range

13.66

18.18

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

-0.34%

Win Rate

38.1%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 40+5.65% (90%)

Week 27+3.45% (70%)

Week 39+1.88% (65%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 10-2.91% (24%)

Week 9-1.91% (24%)

Week 49-1.47% (40%)

Brazil's cane harvest (Apr–Nov) is the dominant supply driver. Inter-harvest period (Dec–Mar) often sees tighter supply and firmer prices.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is low (24th percentile — leaning bullish) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

4.99+0.00 (+0.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.60+0.01 (+0.2%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

7.5%

Normal

Producer 52-wk %ile

9.6%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

41.0%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 1.0%WoW: -19,864 (-21.9%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: -0.02

Concentration Risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

2,247

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

4,555

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

0.49

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

1.0%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

-0.97

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

23.8%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

19.0%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

81.0%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	-133,746	-38,361	+171,803	+215,016	946,729	48.1%	23.8%	-0.97	-77,888 (-139.4%)
2026-04-07	-55,858	-89,681	+156,935	+239,052	924,257	78.8%	39.0%	-0.21	-15,064 (-36.9%)
2026-03-31	-40,794	-99,020	+148,657	+237,502	927,493	78.8%	43.8%	-0.08	+32,376 (+44.2%)
2026-03-24	-73,170	-70,038	+146,367	+238,807	940,662	75.0%	37.1%	-0.40	+124,969 (+63.1%)
2026-03-17	-198,139	+9,053	+191,015	+207,397	1,005,609	13.5%	6.7%	-1.64	+4,224 (+2.1%)
2026-03-10	-202,363	+6,127	+200,537	+204,348	1,035,892	7.7%	3.8%	-1.73	+35,854 (+15.1%)
2026-03-03	-238,217	+52,376	+198,943	+190,968	1,048,631	1.9%	1.0%	-2.13	-5,901 (-2.5%)
2026-02-24	-232,316	+48,084	+211,655	+205,050	1,054,389	1.9%	1.0%	-2.14	-554 (-0.2%)
2026-02-17	-231,762	+75,402	+190,422	+209,089	1,099,675	1.9%	1.0%	-2.20	-31,728 (-15.9%)
2026-02-10	-200,034	+84,850	+173,559	+207,273	1,095,771	1.9%	1.0%	-1.94	-23,334 (-13.2%)
2026-02-03	-176,700	+66,157	+169,877	+211,191	1,059,582	9.6%	4.8%	-1.75	-44,259 (-33.4%)
2026-01-27	-132,441	+17,591	+159,162	+211,862	1,006,304	34.6%	17.1%	-1.31	+13,813 (+9.4%)
2026-01-20	-146,254	+31,282	+158,948	+217,853	985,716	23.1%	11.4%	-1.49	-8,778 (-6.4%)
2026-01-13	-137,476	+25,905	+150,368	+208,580	970,010	28.8%	14.3%	-1.42	+60 (+0.0%)
2026-01-06	-137,536	+34,369	+125,847	+179,928	943,170	26.9%	13.3%	-1.45	-6,608 (-5.0%)
2025-12-30	-130,928	+24,228	+120,934	+177,333	923,101	28.8%	14.3%	-1.41	+17,814 (+12.0%)
2025-12-23	-148,742	+32,223	+121,761	+169,792	938,797	21.2%	10.5%	-1.65	+15,624 (+9.5%)
2025-12-16	-164,366	+37,263	+128,708	+172,690	942,193	15.4%	7.6%	-1.87	+11,593 (+6.6%)
2025-12-09	-175,959	+54,928	+133,101	+168,526	941,986	9.6%	4.8%	-2.05	+7,900 (+4.3%)
2025-12-02	-183,859	+56,794	+131,607	+169,202	951,437	7.7%	3.8%	-2.19	+13,036 (+6.6%)
2025-11-25	-196,895	+64,377	+133,257	+168,757	946,665	3.8%	1.9%	-2.39	-5,198 (-2.7%)
2025-11-18	-191,697	+63,851	+130,536	+169,931	941,444	3.8%	1.9%	-2.39	+7,485 (+3.8%)
2025-11-04	-199,182	+78,049	+125,847	+181,154	929,991	1.9%	1.0%	-2.54	-29,441 (-17.3%)
2025-10-28	-169,741	+61,255	+115,960	+173,869	898,257	1.9%	1.0%	-2.26	-15,440 (-10.0%)
2025-10-21	-154,301	+46,569	+107,951	+175,270	880,454	3.8%	1.9%	-2.12	+11,449 (+6.9%)
2025-10-14	-165,750	+49,790	+96,703	+169,874	867,493	1.9%	1.0%	-2.31	-24,413 (-17.3%)
2025-10-07	-141,337	+22,261	+87,123	+164,215	834,349	5.8%	2.9%	-2.07	-5,239 (-3.8%)
2025-09-30	-136,098	+22,788	+84,285	+163,218	859,715	5.8%	2.9%	-2.05	+14,809 (+9.8%)
2025-09-23	-150,907	+47,281	+80,849	+168,338	898,935	1.9%	1.0%	-2.27	-24,637 (-19.5%)
2025-09-16	-126,270	+40,974	+71,424	+181,887	918,579	3.8%	1.9%	-2.02	+18,616 (+12.8%)
2025-09-09	-144,886	+95,828	+44,256	+173,001	954,758	1.9%	1.0%	-2.28	-44,324 (-44.1%)
2025-09-02	-100,562	+54,218	+34,357	+186,994	940,447	5.8%	2.9%	-1.79	-8,316 (-9.0%)
2025-08-26	-92,246	+34,068	+41,734	+184,207	915,782	11.5%	5.7%	-1.72	-2,312 (-2.6%)
2025-08-19	-89,934	+30,867	+41,562	+183,611	901,121	13.5%	6.7%	-1.74	-2,894 (-3.3%)
2025-08-12	-87,040	+26,114	+37,894	+178,291	898,919	13.5%	6.7%	-1.74	+18,720 (+17.7%)
2025-08-05	-105,760	+40,051	+49,478	+182,461	888,761	1.9%	1.0%	-2.02	-13,261 (-14.3%)
2025-07-29	-92,499	+19,774	+47,173	+186,943	872,591	5.8%	2.9%	-1.91	-78 (-0.1%)
2025-07-22	-92,421	+23,296	+48,735	+182,831	866,505	5.8%	2.9%	-1.95	-1,761 (-1.9%)
2025-07-15	-90,660	+15,756	+49,643	+182,476	866,727	5.8%	2.9%	-1.98	+2,420 (+2.6%)
2025-07-08	-93,080	+18,001	+56,392	+182,335	850,532	3.8%	1.9%	-2.07	+12,517 (+11.9%)
2025-07-01	-105,597	+14,025	+62,104	+185,594	840,169	1.9%	1.0%	-2.29	-27,108 (-34.5%)
2025-06-24	-78,489	+3,125	+48,282	+188,758	860,131	1.9%	1.0%	-1.98	-12,383 (-18.7%)
2025-06-17	-66,106	-2,519	+53,745	+186,792	877,614	1.9%	1.0%	-1.85	-35,081 (-113.1%)
2025-06-10	-31,025	+20,012	+6,356	+167,265	903,273	9.6%	7.6%	-1.41	-19,389 (-166.6%)
2025-06-03	-11,636	+4,615	+6,092	+171,943	878,105	19.2%	13.3%	-1.17	-22,044 (-211.8%)
2025-05-27	+10,408	-22,076	+9,451	+173,757	824,628	30.8%	20.0%	-0.89	-12,823 (-55.2%)
2025-05-20	+23,231	-30,806	+9,134	+180,956	805,373	38.5%	25.7%	-0.74	-574 (-2.4%)
2025-05-13	+23,805	-35,762	+4,480	+179,753	788,002	40.4%	25.7%	-0.74	+6,172 (+35.0%)
2025-05-06	+17,633	-26,910	+8,908	+174,420	797,126	38.5%	21.0%	-0.84	-26,070 (-59.7%)
2025-04-29	+43,703	-39,448	+4,736	+181,947	814,178	51.9%	33.3%	-0.52	-8,172 (-15.8%)
2025-04-22	+51,875	-27,149	-5,353	+179,170	830,293	61.5%	40.0%	-0.43	-4,785 (-8.4%)
2025-04-15	+56,660	-26,288	-9,446	+184,142	854,643	65.4%	42.9%	-0.39	-38,471 (-40.4%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersManaged MoneyProducer / MerchantNonreportableOther Reportables