Wheat (CBOT)

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-04-14

← Back to Dashboard

Price

591.25

-7.25 (-1.2%)

52-wk Range

83%

498.50 — 618.50

Managed Money Net

-5,550

WoW: -1,168 (-26.7%)

Producer Net

-55,112

WoW: +567 (+1.0%)

Swap Dealer Net

+71,364

WoW: -1,957 (-2.7%)

CIT Net

+94,619

WoW: -11,452 (-10.8%)

52-wk Percentile

94.2%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

97.1%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

2.17

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

-0.21%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

38.1%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongNeutralMM Long Concentration: 48.7%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (83%) and managed money is heavily long (97th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

Report Date Price

598.50

+24.00 (+4.18%) WoW

52-Week Range

498.50

618.50

83%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

-0.21%

Win Rate

38.1%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 9+2.39% (48%)

Week 20+2.21% (60%)

Week 50+2.08% (70%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 10-2.47% (33%)

Week 22-1.58% (45%)

Week 25-1.57% (25%)

Winter wheat planting (Sep–Nov) and spring harvest (Jun–Jul) drive seasonal swings. Prices often strengthen in late spring on weather uncertainty before weakening post-harvest.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (97th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

4.99+0.00 (+0.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.60+0.01 (+0.2%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

21.1%

High

Producer 52-wk %ile

5.8%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

2.9%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 42.9%WoW: -16,926 (-14.7%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 0.96

Concentration Risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

1,571

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

1,709

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

0.92

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

45.7%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Confirmed

Raw Z-Score

2.17

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

97.1%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

92.4%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

4.8%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	-5,550	-55,112	+71,364	+94,619	465,537	94.2%	97.1%	2.17	-1,168 (-26.7%)
2026-04-07	-4,382	-55,679	+73,321	+106,071	502,479	96.2%	98.1%	2.28	-12,163 (-156.3%)
2026-03-31	+7,781	-64,955	+72,479	+109,378	488,618	100.0%	100.0%	2.80	+8,775 (+882.8%)
2026-03-24	-994	-51,471	+67,820	+104,013	484,568	100.0%	100.0%	2.62	+10,880 (+91.6%)
2026-03-17	-11,874	-49,804	+74,393	+103,621	478,449	100.0%	100.0%	2.31	+9,372 (+44.1%)
2026-03-10	-21,246	-45,730	+75,148	+98,026	464,435	98.1%	99.0%	2.02	+3,843 (+15.3%)
2026-03-03	-25,089	-46,379	+73,851	+96,004	446,488	98.1%	98.1%	1.92	-7,331 (-41.3%)
2026-02-24	-17,758	-54,046	+74,407	+94,124	456,155	100.0%	100.0%	2.27	+51,809 (+74.5%)
2026-02-17	-69,567	-12,158	+70,542	+75,526	472,320	75.0%	60.0%	0.15	+16,265 (+18.9%)
2026-02-10	-85,832	-836	+72,727	+71,560	521,824	50.0%	34.3%	-0.54	-4,289 (-5.3%)
2026-02-03	-81,543	+816	+66,248	+65,070	543,432	63.5%	41.9%	-0.37	+12,504 (+13.3%)
2026-01-27	-94,047	+7,985	+69,378	+64,957	536,028	36.5%	20.0%	-0.90	+19,513 (+17.2%)
2026-01-20	-113,560	+13,671	+77,173	+68,102	519,231	3.8%	1.9%	-1.74	-5,313 (-4.9%)
2026-01-13	-108,247	+11,071	+73,807	+69,015	513,710	9.6%	4.8%	-1.56	+1,236 (+1.1%)
2026-01-06	-109,483	+20,665	+64,305	+61,198	500,768	7.7%	3.8%	-1.65	-12,287 (-12.6%)
2025-12-30	-97,196	+9,594	+60,382	+60,805	488,488	23.1%	12.4%	-1.15	+978 (+1.0%)
2025-12-23	-98,174	+9,022	+63,367	+65,416	486,727	21.2%	10.5%	-1.21	-26,095 (-36.2%)
2025-12-16	-72,079	-9,142	+61,523	+64,643	465,597	75.0%	48.6%	-0.06	-23,044 (-47.0%)
2025-12-09	-49,035	-19,060	+52,166	+63,400	423,535	94.2%	82.9%	0.97	-2,393 (-5.1%)
2025-12-02	-46,642	-23,172	+54,495	+65,044	405,251	100.0%	85.7%	1.09	+9,764 (+17.3%)
2025-11-25	-56,406	-8,399	+50,553	+61,795	400,363	94.2%	76.2%	0.69	-8,307 (-17.3%)
2025-11-18	-48,099	-9,171	+45,558	+63,122	419,415	98.1%	84.8%	1.06	+20,641 (+30.0%)
2025-11-04	-68,740	+7,874	+46,823	+65,263	504,049	76.9%	61.0%	0.19	+4,591 (+6.3%)
2025-10-28	-73,331	+1,573	+51,493	+60,883	513,537	73.1%	51.4%	0.01	+34,046 (+31.7%)
2025-10-21	-107,377	+19,437	+60,060	+57,988	539,975	7.7%	6.7%	-1.41	+3,506 (+3.2%)
2025-10-14	-110,883	+21,160	+61,465	+56,667	540,599	5.8%	5.7%	-1.56	-15,483 (-16.2%)
2025-10-07	-95,400	+11,575	+59,073	+57,058	494,791	21.2%	20.0%	-0.91	+839 (+0.9%)
2025-09-30	-96,239	+14,632	+59,400	+56,345	472,182	19.2%	19.0%	-0.93	+1,056 (+1.1%)
2025-09-23	-97,295	+18,511	+62,572	+55,850	464,988	17.3%	19.0%	-0.97	-11,496 (-13.4%)
2025-09-16	-85,799	+11,732	+61,368	+60,874	458,420	42.3%	36.2%	-0.49	+7,488 (+8.0%)
2025-09-09	-93,287	+19,983	+61,994	+55,351	451,108	23.1%	23.8%	-0.80	-10,011 (-12.0%)
2025-09-02	-83,276	+12,433	+59,268	+58,228	425,549	40.4%	36.2%	-0.39	-417 (-0.5%)
2025-08-26	-82,859	+16,004	+62,679	+58,165	451,551	42.3%	39.0%	-0.37	+17,307 (+17.3%)
2025-08-19	-100,166	+23,731	+68,608	+57,296	492,954	15.4%	17.1%	-1.09	-8,292 (-9.0%)
2025-08-12	-91,874	+20,169	+67,855	+55,439	487,569	21.2%	22.9%	-0.76	-8,917 (-10.7%)
2025-08-05	-82,957	+13,494	+67,376	+57,122	494,130	36.5%	36.2%	-0.40	-16,077 (-24.0%)
2025-07-29	-66,880	+5,361	+66,699	+60,453	445,847	57.7%	62.9%	0.27	-12,891 (-23.9%)
2025-07-22	-53,989	-5,472	+65,763	+60,408	435,642	75.0%	80.0%	0.79	+9,045 (+14.3%)
2025-07-15	-63,034	+2,644	+68,455	+60,995	413,231	67.3%	68.6%	0.42	-5,441 (-9.4%)
2025-07-08	-57,593	+2,507	+66,824	+60,499	391,310	73.1%	74.3%	0.64	+5,821 (+9.2%)
2025-07-01	-63,414	+9,090	+65,886	+53,392	382,143	69.2%	67.6%	0.40	+454 (+0.7%)
2025-06-24	-63,868	+15,049	+60,781	+52,853	373,204	69.2%	67.6%	0.39	+10,388 (+14.0%)
2025-06-17	-74,256	+23,384	+62,869	+40,714	419,798	48.1%	49.5%	-0.02	+13,413 (+15.3%)
2025-06-10	-87,669	+33,341	+60,232	+37,045	441,963	32.7%	34.3%	-0.54	+6,874 (+7.3%)
2025-06-03	-94,543	+34,565	+61,213	+35,687	471,829	15.4%	22.9%	-0.79	-688 (-0.7%)
2025-05-27	-93,855	+31,793	+64,268	+37,117	475,725	17.3%	24.8%	-0.74	+6,686 (+6.7%)
2025-05-20	-100,541	+34,533	+64,547	+39,071	478,028	13.5%	19.0%	-0.98	+20,000 (+16.6%)
2025-05-13	-120,541	+46,530	+65,946	+37,016	481,487	1.9%	4.8%	-1.73	-14,605 (-13.8%)
2025-05-06	-105,936	+38,288	+63,218	+34,547	456,016	5.8%	14.3%	-1.17	+6,280 (+5.6%)
2025-04-29	-112,216	+45,827	+63,779	+38,319	447,242	1.9%	10.5%	-1.40	-30,355 (-37.1%)
2025-04-22	-81,861	+23,450	+67,295	+39,848	454,265	26.9%	41.0%	-0.25	+4,377 (+5.1%)
2025-04-15	-86,238	+18,853	+66,885	+45,325	466,135	21.2%	36.2%	-0.41	+4,486 (+4.9%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersProducer / MerchantOther ReportablesManaged MoneyNonreportable