Wheat (KC)

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-04-14

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Price

636.75

-6.00 (-0.9%)

52-wk Range

100%

481.75 — 642.75

Managed Money Net

+19,455

WoW: +695 (+3.7%)

Producer Net

-72,952

WoW: +61 (+0.1%)

Swap Dealer Net

+72,070

WoW: +935 (+1.3%)

CIT Net

+76,491

WoW: -1,053 (-1.4%)

52-wk Percentile

98.1%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

99.0%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

2.38

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

-0.19%

Week 16 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

28.6%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongClassic SetupMM Long Concentration: 59.0%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (100%) and managed money is heavily long (99th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

Report Date Price

642.75

+52.25 (+8.85%) WoW

52-Week Range

481.75

642.75

100%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (16)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

-0.19%

Win Rate

28.6%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 51+2.26% (75%)

Week 9+2.12% (57%)

Week 53+1.83% (100%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 25-2.18% (30%)

Week 49-1.50% (35%)

Week 13-1.44% (29%)

Hard red winter wheat follows a similar cycle to CBOT wheat. Drought risk in the southern Plains during winter dormancy (Dec–Feb) can create early-year rallies.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (99th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

98.10-0.12 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

4.99+0.00 (+0.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.60+0.01 (+0.2%)↑

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.48-0.46 (-2.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

21.8%

High

Producer 52-wk %ile

13.5%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

6.7%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:LowSpread percentile: 88.6%WoW: +3,911 (+6.4%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Covered

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 0.19

Concentration Risk

Risk spreading — position becoming less fragile

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

1,205

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

1,306

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

0.92

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

69.5%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Partial

Raw Z-Score

2.38

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

99.0%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

87.6%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

1.0%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-04-14	+19,455	-72,952	+72,070	+76,491	297,784	98.1%	99.0%	2.38	+695 (+3.7%)
2026-04-07	+18,760	-73,013	+71,135	+77,544	297,896	98.1%	99.0%	2.44	-5,040 (-21.2%)
2026-03-31	+23,800	-84,447	+70,881	+77,222	294,333	100.0%	100.0%	2.78	+14,282 (+150.1%)
2026-03-24	+9,518	-72,784	+72,038	+77,698	300,452	96.2%	98.1%	2.21	-1,804 (-15.9%)
2026-03-17	+11,322	-79,386	+75,542	+79,624	301,414	100.0%	100.0%	2.38	+1,388 (+14.0%)
2026-03-10	+9,934	-78,375	+76,881	+80,625	289,815	100.0%	100.0%	2.39	+6,499 (+189.2%)
2026-03-03	+3,435	-75,747	+78,238	+82,949	291,526	98.1%	99.0%	2.14	-2,865 (-45.5%)
2026-02-24	+6,300	-82,885	+77,145	+81,186	305,533	100.0%	100.0%	2.37	+17,395 (+156.8%)
2026-02-17	-11,095	-62,795	+74,802	+79,460	304,868	96.2%	93.3%	1.46	+6,917 (+38.4%)
2026-02-10	-18,012	-52,568	+76,127	+79,590	295,884	88.5%	81.9%	1.08	-10,235 (-131.6%)
2026-02-03	-7,777	-63,282	+76,052	+79,266	312,784	100.0%	97.1%	1.69	+1,117 (+12.6%)
2026-01-27	-8,894	-63,595	+71,390	+71,364	312,290	100.0%	96.2%	1.67	+4,119 (+31.7%)
2026-01-20	-13,013	-59,780	+71,141	+70,956	310,140	100.0%	94.3%	1.46	+162 (+1.2%)
2026-01-13	-13,175	-65,419	+71,303	+68,445	302,940	100.0%	94.3%	1.48	+2,579 (+16.4%)
2026-01-06	-15,754	-60,227	+62,837	+61,426	301,270	100.0%	91.4%	1.35	+2,881 (+15.5%)
2025-12-30	-18,635	-56,179	+64,142	+64,913	294,382	96.2%	85.7%	1.19	+6,721 (+26.5%)
2025-12-23	-25,356	-50,428	+63,820	+65,345	301,013	88.5%	80.0%	0.79	+1,253 (+4.7%)
2025-12-16	-26,609	-49,671	+64,106	+67,699	291,715	88.5%	78.1%	0.71	-8,881 (-50.1%)
2025-12-09	-17,728	-57,049	+64,882	+71,067	276,290	100.0%	88.6%	1.27	+769 (+4.2%)
2025-12-02	-18,497	-55,301	+65,892	+72,064	275,756	100.0%	87.6%	1.25	+4,133 (+18.3%)
2025-11-25	-22,630	-50,681	+64,188	+71,198	267,401	96.2%	84.8%	1.02	-1,468 (-6.9%)
2025-11-18	-21,162	-54,344	+60,926	+67,661	287,892	98.1%	85.7%	1.13	+21,188 (+50.0%)
2025-11-04	-42,350	-37,257	+60,795	+66,309	315,668	63.5%	38.1%	-0.21	+9,858 (+18.9%)
2025-10-28	-52,208	-34,068	+63,472	+68,317	327,446	28.8%	14.3%	-0.84	+14,973 (+22.3%)
2025-10-21	-67,181	-20,434	+62,001	+66,423	344,046	15.4%	7.6%	-1.81	+611 (+0.9%)
2025-10-14	-67,792	-17,540	+61,647	+66,916	345,241	13.5%	6.7%	-1.90	-4,055 (-6.4%)
2025-10-07	-63,737	-20,409	+60,719	+65,203	335,027	15.4%	7.6%	-1.68	-9,604 (-17.7%)
2025-09-30	-54,133	-27,539	+61,132	+65,507	319,532	19.2%	9.5%	-1.09	-3,951 (-7.9%)
2025-09-23	-50,182	-30,232	+61,344	+66,868	308,023	26.9%	13.3%	-0.85	+354 (+0.7%)
2025-09-16	-50,536	-31,162	+60,571	+67,249	305,148	25.0%	12.4%	-0.89	+1,627 (+3.1%)
2025-09-09	-52,163	-30,204	+58,617	+61,114	298,804	21.2%	10.5%	-1.01	+1,646 (+3.1%)
2025-09-02	-53,809	-26,962	+61,129	+62,525	281,222	19.2%	9.5%	-1.13	-5,829 (-12.1%)
2025-08-26	-47,980	-32,615	+59,582	+61,229	276,460	25.0%	15.2%	-0.78	+385 (+0.8%)
2025-08-19	-48,365	-33,089	+62,043	+60,677	292,716	23.1%	13.3%	-0.82	+233 (+0.5%)
2025-08-12	-48,598	-33,115	+61,543	+59,942	279,246	21.2%	12.4%	-0.85	+6,314 (+11.5%)
2025-08-05	-54,912	-25,214	+59,196	+59,018	292,487	17.3%	8.6%	-1.23	-8,797 (-19.1%)
2025-07-29	-46,115	-32,872	+60,117	+58,194	288,219	25.0%	16.2%	-0.72	-1,804 (-4.1%)
2025-07-22	-44,311	-34,588	+58,503	+57,540	281,105	28.8%	20.0%	-0.62	+3,324 (+7.0%)
2025-07-15	-47,635	-27,802	+60,048	+58,038	272,958	21.2%	14.3%	-0.82	-5,172 (-12.2%)
2025-07-08	-42,463	-28,404	+59,682	+58,732	265,753	32.7%	21.9%	-0.55	-936 (-2.3%)
2025-07-01	-41,527	-31,330	+61,636	+60,845	262,622	34.6%	23.8%	-0.52	+2,385 (+5.4%)
2025-06-24	-43,912	-35,098	+69,533	+67,559	261,360	28.8%	19.0%	-0.66	+16,286 (+27.1%)
2025-06-17	-60,198	-27,027	+73,190	+62,597	283,481	15.4%	7.6%	-1.48	+12,132 (+16.8%)
2025-06-10	-72,330	-15,623	+71,788	+56,354	297,090	9.6%	4.8%	-2.10	+3,882 (+5.1%)
2025-06-03	-76,212	-15,154	+74,273	+55,792	294,018	7.7%	3.8%	-2.34	+605 (+0.8%)
2025-05-27	-76,817	-14,646	+72,625	+54,317	291,769	3.8%	1.9%	-2.43	-184 (-0.2%)
2025-05-20	-76,633	-16,290	+72,400	+55,293	298,591	3.8%	1.9%	-2.48	+736 (+1.0%)
2025-05-13	-77,369	-12,985	+73,088	+52,431	293,000	1.9%	1.0%	-2.60	-8,496 (-12.3%)
2025-05-06	-68,873	-15,174	+71,388	+51,758	277,417	1.9%	1.0%	-2.26	-4,909 (-7.7%)
2025-04-29	-63,964	-17,652	+70,696	+53,358	264,115	1.9%	1.0%	-2.07	-12,346 (-23.9%)
2025-04-22	-51,618	-28,444	+70,735	+49,643	260,449	1.9%	1.0%	-1.46	-8,737 (-20.4%)
2025-04-15	-42,881	-31,093	+71,470	+51,571	268,670	15.4%	11.4%	-1.01	+3,485 (+7.5%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantSwap DealersManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportable