Wheat (KC)

Neutral

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-06-09

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Price

634.50

-0.2500 (-0.0%)

52-wk Range

69%

481.75 — 702.75

Managed Money Net

-3,998

WoW: -18,233 (-128.1%)

Producer Net

-56,750

WoW: +13,350 (+19.0%)

Swap Dealer Net

+77,326

WoW: -2,057 (-2.6%)

CIT Net

+70,693

WoW: -4,597 (-6.1%)

52-wk Percentile

71.2%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

85.7%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

0.91

Crowd Risk

Neutral

Seasonal Ret

-0.18%

Week 24 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

33.3%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongNeutralMM Long Concentration: 48.2%

Price Context

Price is in the upper half of its range (69%) with moderate-to-bullish positioning (86th percentile) — price and COT are directionally aligned. No divergence signal.

Report Date Price

634.75

+14.50 (+2.34%) WoW

52-Week Range

481.75

702.75

69%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (24)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

-0.18%

Win Rate

33.3%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 51+2.26% (75%)

Week 9+2.12% (57%)

Week 53+1.83% (100%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 25-2.18% (30%)

Week 49-1.50% (35%)

Week 13-1.44% (29%)

Hard red winter wheat follows a similar cycle to CBOT wheat. Drought risk in the southern Plains during winter dormancy (Dec–Feb) can create early-year rallies.

Macro Context

Supportive

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is elevated (86th percentile — leaning bearish) while macro is Supportive.

DXY (USD Index)

99.75-0.11 (-0.1%)↓

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

5.06-0.05 (-1.0%)↓

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.70-0.01 (-0.4%)↓

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

17.68-1.76 (-9.1%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Disaggregated Signals

MM Spread Ratio

17.5%

High

Producer 52-wk %ile

44.2%

Obs: 52

Producer 105-wk %ile

27.6%

Obs: 105

Conviction & Spread Analysis

Conviction:HighSpread percentile: 20.0%WoW: -12,882 (-20.2%)

Change Decomposition

Latest: Shorts Added

Retail vs Smart Money

Retail Z-Score: 1.23

Concentration Risk

Avg Contracts / Long Trader

1,160

Avg Contracts / Short Trader

1,434

Long/Short Concentration Ratio

0.81

Long Conc. 105-wk %ile

59.0%

Concentration Ratio — Last 52 Weeks

Dual Normalization (Z-Score vs % OI)

Neutral

Raw Z-Score

0.91

Recent-cycle context

Raw Net Percentile

85.7%

105-wk rolling

Long % OI Percentile

59.0%

Cross-cycle view

Short % OI Percentile

13.3%

Cross-cycle view

Last 52 Weeks

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-06-09	-3,998	-56,750	+77,326	+70,693	290,952	71.2%	85.7%	0.91	-18,233 (-128.1%)
2026-06-02	+14,235	-70,100	+79,383	+75,290	315,942	82.7%	91.4%	1.59	-13,894 (-49.4%)
2026-05-26	+28,129	-80,636	+81,514	+80,160	315,775	90.4%	95.2%	2.15	-2,662 (-8.6%)
2026-05-19	+30,791	-86,465	+81,524	+81,331	307,999	92.3%	96.2%	2.31	-5,916 (-16.1%)
2026-05-12	+36,707	-91,687	+77,856	+80,481	297,542	98.1%	99.0%	2.63	-1,274 (-3.4%)
2026-05-05	+37,981	-89,568	+73,990	+79,097	293,054	100.0%	100.0%	2.80	+6,732 (+21.5%)
2026-04-28	+31,249	-88,936	+75,317	+80,147	280,070	98.1%	99.0%	2.66	-156 (-0.5%)
2026-04-21	+31,405	-89,841	+74,837	+78,731	293,233	100.0%	100.0%	2.79	+11,950 (+61.4%)
2026-04-14	+19,455	-72,952	+72,070	+76,491	297,784	98.1%	99.0%	2.38	+695 (+3.7%)
2026-04-07	+18,760	-73,013	+71,135	+77,544	297,896	98.1%	99.0%	2.44	-5,040 (-21.2%)
2026-03-31	+23,800	-84,447	+70,881	+77,222	294,333	100.0%	100.0%	2.78	+14,282 (+150.1%)
2026-03-24	+9,518	-72,784	+72,038	+77,698	300,452	96.2%	98.1%	2.21	-1,804 (-15.9%)
2026-03-17	+11,322	-79,386	+75,542	+79,624	301,414	100.0%	100.0%	2.38	+1,388 (+14.0%)
2026-03-10	+9,934	-78,375	+76,881	+80,625	289,815	100.0%	100.0%	2.39	+6,499 (+189.2%)
2026-03-03	+3,435	-75,747	+78,238	+82,949	291,526	98.1%	99.0%	2.14	-2,865 (-45.5%)
2026-02-24	+6,300	-82,885	+77,145	+81,186	305,533	100.0%	100.0%	2.37	+17,395 (+156.8%)
2026-02-17	-11,095	-62,795	+74,802	+79,460	304,868	96.2%	93.3%	1.46	+6,917 (+38.4%)
2026-02-10	-18,012	-52,568	+76,127	+79,590	295,884	88.5%	81.9%	1.08	-10,235 (-131.6%)
2026-02-03	-7,777	-63,282	+76,052	+79,266	312,784	100.0%	97.1%	1.69	+1,117 (+12.6%)
2026-01-27	-8,894	-63,595	+71,390	+71,364	312,290	100.0%	96.2%	1.67	+4,119 (+31.7%)
2026-01-20	-13,013	-59,780	+71,141	+70,956	310,140	100.0%	94.3%	1.46	+162 (+1.2%)
2026-01-13	-13,175	-65,419	+71,303	+68,445	302,940	100.0%	94.3%	1.48	+2,579 (+16.4%)
2026-01-06	-15,754	-60,227	+62,837	+61,426	301,270	100.0%	91.4%	1.35	+2,881 (+15.5%)
2025-12-30	-18,635	-56,179	+64,142	+64,913	294,382	96.2%	85.7%	1.19	+6,721 (+26.5%)
2025-12-23	-25,356	-50,428	+63,820	+65,345	301,013	88.5%	80.0%	0.79	+1,253 (+4.7%)
2025-12-16	-26,609	-49,671	+64,106	+67,699	291,715	88.5%	78.1%	0.71	-8,881 (-50.1%)
2025-12-09	-17,728	-57,049	+64,882	+71,067	276,290	100.0%	88.6%	1.27	+769 (+4.2%)
2025-12-02	-18,497	-55,301	+65,892	+72,064	275,756	100.0%	87.6%	1.25	+4,133 (+18.3%)
2025-11-25	-22,630	-50,681	+64,188	+71,198	267,401	96.2%	84.8%	1.02	-1,468 (-6.9%)
2025-11-18	-21,162	-54,344	+60,926	+67,661	287,892	98.1%	85.7%	1.13	+21,188 (+50.0%)
2025-11-04	-42,350	-37,257	+60,795	+66,309	315,668	63.5%	38.1%	-0.21	+9,858 (+18.9%)
2025-10-28	-52,208	-34,068	+63,472	+68,317	327,446	28.8%	14.3%	-0.84	+14,973 (+22.3%)
2025-10-21	-67,181	-20,434	+62,001	+66,423	344,046	15.4%	7.6%	-1.81	+611 (+0.9%)
2025-10-14	-67,792	-17,540	+61,647	+66,916	345,241	13.5%	6.7%	-1.90	-4,055 (-6.4%)
2025-10-07	-63,737	-20,409	+60,719	+65,203	335,027	15.4%	7.6%	-1.68	-9,604 (-17.7%)
2025-09-30	-54,133	-27,539	+61,132	+65,507	319,532	19.2%	9.5%	-1.09	-3,951 (-7.9%)
2025-09-23	-50,182	-30,232	+61,344	+66,868	308,023	26.9%	13.3%	-0.85	+354 (+0.7%)
2025-09-16	-50,536	-31,162	+60,571	+67,249	305,148	25.0%	12.4%	-0.89	+1,627 (+3.1%)
2025-09-09	-52,163	-30,204	+58,617	+61,114	298,804	21.2%	10.5%	-1.01	+1,646 (+3.1%)
2025-09-02	-53,809	-26,962	+61,129	+62,525	281,222	19.2%	9.5%	-1.13	-5,829 (-12.1%)
2025-08-26	-47,980	-32,615	+59,582	+61,229	276,460	25.0%	15.2%	-0.78	+385 (+0.8%)
2025-08-19	-48,365	-33,089	+62,043	+60,677	292,716	23.1%	13.3%	-0.82	+233 (+0.5%)
2025-08-12	-48,598	-33,115	+61,543	+59,942	279,246	21.2%	12.4%	-0.85	+6,314 (+11.5%)
2025-08-05	-54,912	-25,214	+59,196	+59,018	292,487	17.3%	8.6%	-1.23	-8,797 (-19.1%)
2025-07-29	-46,115	-32,872	+60,117	+58,194	288,219	25.0%	16.2%	-0.72	-1,804 (-4.1%)
2025-07-22	-44,311	-34,588	+58,503	+57,540	281,105	28.8%	20.0%	-0.62	+3,324 (+7.0%)
2025-07-15	-47,635	-27,802	+60,048	+58,038	272,958	21.2%	14.3%	-0.82	-5,172 (-12.2%)
2025-07-08	-42,463	-28,404	+59,682	+58,732	265,753	32.7%	21.9%	-0.55	-936 (-2.3%)
2025-07-01	-41,527	-31,330	+61,636	+60,845	262,622	34.6%	23.8%	-0.52	+2,385 (+5.4%)
2025-06-24	-43,912	-35,098	+69,533	+67,559	261,360	28.8%	19.0%	-0.66	+16,286 (+27.1%)
2025-06-17	-60,198	-27,027	+73,190	+62,597	283,481	15.4%	7.6%	-1.48	+12,132 (+16.8%)
2025-06-10	-72,330	-15,623	+71,788	+56,354	297,090	9.6%	4.8%	-2.10	+3,882 (+5.1%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Swap DealersProducer / MerchantOther ReportablesManaged MoneyNonreportable