Wheat (KC)

Liquidation Risk

agriculture · Last COT: 2026-08-25

This page combines weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning for Wheat (KC) futures with seasonality, price context, and macro indicators. Percentiles show where the latest net position sits relative to its recent history; extremes can reveal crowded or washed-out positioning, but they are context rather than a standalone trade signal.

How to read the COT metrics

At a glance

A reading of the inputs, not a trade recommendation.

Net positioning

Managed Money net positioning is high versus the last two years (100th percentile).

Crowd risk

Liquidation Risk

Gross long exposure is not at the dashboard's concentration threshold.

Price context

Price sits 100% through its 52-week range, without a flagged price-positioning divergence.

Seasonality and macro

Neutral seasonal bias for week 35. Macro is mixed.

Compare these inputs together. A low net-position percentile can coexist with high gross-long concentration, and price or macro can point in a different direction.

Price

844.25

As of 2026-08-28 · +40.75 (+5.1%)

52-wk Range

100%

481.75 — 803.50

Managed Money Net

+42,514

WoW: +11,017 (+35.0%)

Producer Net

-101,693

WoW: -5,555 (-5.8%)

Swap Dealer Net

+79,225

WoW: -591 (-0.7%)

CIT Net

+69,330

WoW: +160 (+0.2%)

52-wk Percentile

100.0%

Based on 52 observations

105-wk Percentile

100.0%

Based on 105 observations

Z-Score

2.12

Crowd Risk

Liquidation Risk

Seasonal Ret

+0.48%

Week 35 · 21y avg

Seasonal Win%

57.1%

21 years of data

Seasonal Bias

Neutral

Swap Net: LongHedger-Speculator DivergenceMM Long Concentration: 69.4%

Price Context

Price is near 52-week highs (100%) and managed money is heavily long (100th percentile) — price and positioning are aligned bullish, but crowded. Watch for reversal risk.

COT Baseline Price

803.50

As of 2026-08-24

+41.25 (+5.41%) WoW

52-Week Range

481.75

803.50

100%

Divergence

No Divergence

Seasonality

Current Week (35)

➖ Neutral

Avg Return

+0.48%

Win Rate

57.1%(21y)

3 Strongest Weeks

Week 51+2.26% (75%)

Week 9+2.12% (57%)

Week 29+1.84% (52%)

3 Weakest Weeks

Week 25-1.96% (33%)

Week 49-1.50% (35%)

Week 13-1.44% (29%)

Hard red winter wheat follows a similar cycle to CBOT wheat. Drought risk in the southern Plains during winter dormancy (Dec–Feb) can create early-year rallies.

Macro Context

Mixed

COT × Macro Alignment: COT positioning is at a 2-year high (100th percentile — crowded long) while macro is Mixed.

DXY (USD Index)

99.68+0.52 (+0.5%)↑

A weaker dollar makes US agricultural exports more competitive globally, supporting grain and soft commodity prices.

USD/BRL

5.21+0.06 (+1.1%)↑

A stronger Brazilian real makes Brazilian exports (sugar, coffee, soybeans) more expensive, supporting global prices. A weaker real is bearish.

Soybean/Corn Ratio

2.40-0.06 (-2.5%)↓

A high soybean/corn ratio incentivizes farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn, affecting future supply dynamics for both crops.

VIX

14.43-0.08 (-0.6%)↓

Elevated market volatility can disrupt trade flows and financing, creating uncertainty for agricultural commodity prices.

Last 52 Weeks

CSV export includes up to five years of weekly observations.

Date	MM Net	Producer Net	Swap Net	CIT Net	Open Interest	52-wk %ile	105-wk %ile	Z-Score	WoW Chg
2026-08-25	+42,514	-101,693	+79,225	+69,330	294,391	100.0%	100.0%	2.12	+11,017 (+35.0%)
2026-08-18	+31,497	-96,138	+79,816	+69,170	288,733	96.2%	98.1%	1.83	+5,891 (+23.0%)
2026-08-11	+25,606	-94,131	+79,057	+65,843	305,725	82.7%	91.4%	1.68	-5,890 (-18.7%)
2026-08-04	+31,496	-97,034	+78,895	+62,776	313,006	96.2%	98.1%	1.92	+85 (+0.3%)
2026-07-28	+31,411	-95,309	+78,573	+61,696	303,684	96.2%	98.1%	1.98	+4,701 (+17.6%)
2026-07-21	+26,710	-90,379	+77,657	+64,523	294,133	88.5%	94.3%	1.87	+12,921 (+93.7%)
2026-07-14	+13,789	-74,377	+74,350	+57,941	267,937	80.8%	90.5%	1.46	+5,060 (+58.0%)
2026-07-07	+8,729	-68,550	+77,898	+58,539	268,328	75.0%	87.6%	1.31	+3,767 (+75.9%)
2026-06-30	+4,962	-61,580	+75,897	+63,142	260,913	71.2%	85.7%	1.20	+5,720 (+754.6%)
2026-06-23	-758	-58,215	+76,259	+68,411	269,180	69.2%	84.8%	1.01	-9,121 (-109.1%)
2026-06-16	+8,363	-60,477	+72,572	+66,028	289,534	75.0%	87.6%	1.35	+12,361 (+309.2%)
2026-06-09	-3,998	-56,750	+77,326	+70,693	290,952	71.2%	85.7%	0.91	-18,233 (-128.1%)
2026-06-02	+14,235	-70,100	+79,383	+75,290	315,942	82.7%	91.4%	1.59	-13,894 (-49.4%)
2026-05-26	+28,129	-80,636	+81,514	+80,160	315,775	90.4%	95.2%	2.15	-2,662 (-8.6%)
2026-05-19	+30,791	-86,465	+81,524	+81,331	307,999	92.3%	96.2%	2.31	-5,916 (-16.1%)
2026-05-12	+36,707	-91,687	+77,856	+80,481	297,542	98.1%	99.0%	2.63	-1,274 (-3.4%)
2026-05-05	+37,981	-89,568	+73,990	+79,097	293,054	100.0%	100.0%	2.80	+6,732 (+21.5%)
2026-04-28	+31,249	-88,936	+75,317	+80,147	280,070	98.1%	99.0%	2.66	-156 (-0.5%)
2026-04-21	+31,405	-89,841	+74,837	+78,731	293,233	100.0%	100.0%	2.79	+11,950 (+61.4%)
2026-04-14	+19,455	-72,952	+72,070	+76,491	297,784	98.1%	99.0%	2.38	+695 (+3.7%)
2026-04-07	+18,760	-73,013	+71,135	+77,544	297,896	98.1%	99.0%	2.44	-5,040 (-21.2%)
2026-03-31	+23,800	-84,447	+70,881	+77,222	294,333	100.0%	100.0%	2.78	+14,282 (+150.1%)
2026-03-24	+9,518	-72,784	+72,038	+77,698	300,452	96.2%	98.1%	2.21	-1,804 (-15.9%)
2026-03-17	+11,322	-79,386	+75,542	+79,624	301,414	100.0%	100.0%	2.38	+1,388 (+14.0%)
2026-03-10	+9,934	-78,375	+76,881	+80,625	289,815	100.0%	100.0%	2.39	+6,499 (+189.2%)
2026-03-03	+3,435	-75,747	+78,238	+82,949	291,526	98.1%	99.0%	2.14	-2,865 (-45.5%)
2026-02-24	+6,300	-82,885	+77,145	+81,186	305,533	100.0%	100.0%	2.37	+17,395 (+156.8%)
2026-02-17	-11,095	-62,795	+74,802	+79,460	304,868	96.2%	93.3%	1.46	+6,917 (+38.4%)
2026-02-10	-18,012	-52,568	+76,127	+79,590	295,884	88.5%	81.9%	1.08	-10,235 (-131.6%)
2026-02-03	-7,777	-63,282	+76,052	+79,266	312,784	100.0%	97.1%	1.69	+1,117 (+12.6%)
2026-01-27	-8,894	-63,595	+71,390	+71,364	312,290	100.0%	96.2%	1.67	+4,119 (+31.7%)
2026-01-20	-13,013	-59,780	+71,141	+70,956	310,140	100.0%	94.3%	1.46	+162 (+1.2%)
2026-01-13	-13,175	-65,419	+71,303	+68,445	302,940	100.0%	94.3%	1.48	+2,579 (+16.4%)
2026-01-06	-15,754	-60,227	+62,837	+61,426	301,270	100.0%	91.4%	1.35	+2,881 (+15.5%)
2025-12-30	-18,635	-56,179	+64,142	+64,913	294,382	96.2%	85.7%	1.19	+6,721 (+26.5%)
2025-12-23	-25,356	-50,428	+63,820	+65,345	301,013	88.5%	80.0%	0.79	+1,253 (+4.7%)
2025-12-16	-26,609	-49,671	+64,106	+67,699	291,715	88.5%	78.1%	0.71	-8,881 (-50.1%)
2025-12-09	-17,728	-57,049	+64,882	+71,067	276,290	100.0%	88.6%	1.27	+769 (+4.2%)
2025-12-02	-18,497	-55,301	+65,892	+72,064	275,756	100.0%	87.6%	1.25	+4,133 (+18.3%)
2025-11-25	-22,630	-50,681	+64,188	+71,198	267,401	96.2%	84.8%	1.02	-1,468 (-6.9%)
2025-11-18	-21,162	-54,344	+60,926	+67,661	287,892	98.1%	85.7%	1.13	+21,188 (+50.0%)
2025-11-04	-42,350	-37,257	+60,795	+66,309	315,668	63.5%	38.1%	-0.21	+9,858 (+18.9%)
2025-10-28	-52,208	-34,068	+63,472	+68,317	327,446	28.8%	14.3%	-0.84	+14,973 (+22.3%)
2025-10-21	-67,181	-20,434	+62,001	+66,423	344,046	15.4%	7.6%	-1.81	+611 (+0.9%)
2025-10-14	-67,792	-17,540	+61,647	+66,916	345,241	13.5%	6.7%	-1.90	-4,055 (-6.4%)
2025-10-07	-63,737	-20,409	+60,719	+65,203	335,027	15.4%	7.6%	-1.68	-9,604 (-17.7%)
2025-09-30	-54,133	-27,539	+61,132	+65,507	319,532	19.2%	9.5%	-1.09	-3,951 (-7.9%)
2025-09-23	-50,182	-30,232	+61,344	+66,868	308,023	26.9%	13.3%	-0.85	+354 (+0.7%)
2025-09-16	-50,536	-31,162	+60,571	+67,249	305,148	25.0%	12.4%	-0.89	+1,627 (+3.1%)
2025-09-09	-52,163	-30,204	+58,617	+61,114	298,804	21.2%	10.5%	-1.01	+1,646 (+3.1%)
2025-09-02	-53,809	-26,962	+61,129	+62,525	281,222	19.2%	9.5%	-1.13	-5,829 (-12.1%)
2025-08-26	-47,980	-32,615	+59,582	+61,229	276,460	25.0%	15.2%	-0.78	+385 (+0.8%)

Who Is Holding

Weekly holder positioning stacked by net size in contracts

Each holder is merged to a net position, then stacked from the largest holder at the bottom to the smallest at the top.

Producer / MerchantSwap DealersManaged MoneyOther ReportablesNonreportable